LEXINTGTON, Ky. - The main track at Churchill Downs tends to play more fairly to all running styles than the other tracks on the Kentucky circuit.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Class and speed are two of the most important handicapping factors. They are also among the most obvious.
The betting public jumps all over horses who have kept the best company and those who have run quickly. The true "finds" are those whose class and speed are less apparent, at least to the majority of bettors.
One such horse, Cloud Walker, runs in Saturday's $150,000 Aristides Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs. Even against the likes of graded stakes winners Beau's Town and Champali, I believe he can win. Here's why.
ELMONT, N.Y. - If graded stakes are supposed to be the most straightforward races to handicap, it sure hasn't seemed that way the last couple of weeks. Tote boards across the nation have been lit up like Christmas trees by the likes of Birdstone ($74) in the Belmont, Colonial Colony ($127.20) in Churchill's Stephen Foster, and turf upsetters Lovely Rafaela ($34.40) and Sabiango ($28.80) out at Hollywood Park.
PHILADELPHIA - As Smarty Jones was dominating the headlines all spring, another terrific slipped quietly into the shadows. If there was one race I really wanted to see this fall, it was one with Smarty and Medaglia d'Oro in it.
That won't happen now that Medaglia d'Oro has been retired to stud at Hill 'n' Dale Farms in Lexington, Ky. Still, could you imagine?
Drainage issues. Excess watering. Inadequate watering. Weather. For tracks near the shorelines, there are even lunar tides. All have been mentioned as possible reasons for track biases, specifically, speed-favoring tracks.
But what about pace?
NEW YORK - It can't be easy to put up a good front moments after your horse is nosed out as the 3-2 favorite in a Grade 1, $750,000 race, as was the case with Southern Image in Saturday's Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. And judging from the postrace quotes, Southern Image's jockey and trainer, Victor Espinoza and Mike Machowsky, had a hard time biting their tongues after their colt was denied his sixth straight victory and fourth Grade 1 score from his last five starts by the 62-1 outsider Colonial Colony.
LEXINGTON, Ky. - If you thought Smarty Jones had an excellent chance of winning the Belmont coming into the race, how much more would you have liked his prospects if you had known that it would take a Beyer Speed Figure of only 101 to win the race? And how low would the fair odds have been on him under those circumstances? Unfortunately, the best Smarty Jones could manage was a Beyer Figure of 100, the sixth-lowest number from his nine career races, and he became the latest disappointment during the 26-year drought since Affirmed won the Triple Crown.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - When presented with quality vs. quantity, bettors generally prefer races with quantity. Of course, what the betting public really likes is both - which they'll get Saturday on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill Downs.
There are numerous wagering opportunities. Twelve races are on tap, led by six stakes worth $1.85 million. Specifically, an all-stakes pick four - covering the Northern Dancer, Regret, Fleur de Lis, and Stephen Foster - has the potential for a sizable return.