Mike's Analysis: 

I thought #4 McHale and #6 Jonathan’s Way were interesting firsters, but I want the experienced runners in this race. 

At the posted odds, I'll try #8 Tiz Freedom, who chased from the inside in his debut and looked green in the stretch before just missing second behind Showcase. He moves to the outside post for this and has the look of a colt who will appreciate having a bit more distance to work with. 

I liked the debut run from #1A Moment's Notice and might have gone right back to him in his second start, but he is part of an entry and will be an even shorter price than he might otherwise have been.

David's Response: 

Among those with experience, I agree with Mike’s take on #1A Moment’s Notice and #8 Tiz Freedom. Though, I thought #7 Social Hour was just as interesting as he comes back for his second start. He chased a quick pace that came apart on debut, but his early speed figures to play better in this spot now that he has that start under his belt. I liked his last workout, in which he appeared to go slightly better than debut winner Carmen’s Candy Jar.

My top pick is first time starter #4 McHale. Mark Hennig’s stats with debut runners are poor over the past few years, but he was once quite capable with these types. This horse has win-early pedigree, being by Maclean’s Music, and he looks awfully quick in his workouts. He broke a bit awkwardly in that July 18 gate drill but was always best in company. This horse has talent, and should give a good account of himself here if he’s mentally ready for his debut experience.

(D) = David's wagers; (M) = Mike's wagers

David's Analysis: 

This race is a rewrite from last week with a few minor changes, and still a heavy focus on first time starters. There are a couple of runners with experience in the main body of the field, of which I do think #10 Sam’s Rocket has the potential to improve on turf. He exits a solid maiden race and looked like one that might need longer and surface switch. He’s just done no favors by the draw.

Of the firsters, #9 Valuation Metric looks like the one likely to attract the most attention for Chad Brown. This son of Munnings has enough turf pedigree and his workouts have been fairly encouraging, looking best in company and moving smoothly over turf. He would be no surprise, but I don’t want to take firsters for this barn at short prices, since they generally underperform.

I’m less positive on the other Chad Brown runner, #1 Asbury Park. He has a nice pedigree for turf, being by Frankel out of a dam who produced globetrotting turf marathoner Spanish Mission. However, the primary takeaway from watching this colt train is that he is really small. Like, I’d be mildly surprised if he tips the scale past 900 pounds. Perhaps that won’t hinder him in the long run, but I wouldn’t take a short price on him.

I put #5 Concord Green on top, since he figures to be a fair price despite possessing plenty of turf pedigree and going out for connections that can win with these types. Shug McGaughey is 4 for 13 (31%, $5.53 ROI) with 2YO first time starters in Saratoga turf routes over 5 years with 7 hitting the board. The DRF Clocker Report when this colt was entered last week was positive enough to give good vibes but not so positive as to attract undue support his way.

The other horse I would mention is AE entrant #11 Johny’s Rendezvous. His dirt works were uninspiring but he really seemed to come alive in that Au. 2 turf drill, moving much better and looking much the best of his pair. Phil Bauer has done very well with 2YOs debuting in turf routes, but this one would have to deal with a tough draw if he gets in.

Mike's Response: 

I agree that playing against Chad's firsters in races like this at short prices is the way to go. You're going to get beat by one or two of them, but they just don't win often enough to make them the focus of your wagering.

I was interested in #6 Davy Crockett when this race was carded last week, and was somewhat surprised that Clement did not leave him in to try the main track considering his versatile pedigree. He's back entered for turf and I stuck with him. 

I also liked #5 Concord Green when he was entered on Whitney Day. He is on my tickets.

I have #10 Sam's Treasure second and might have tried him on top had he drawn a better post. 

Mike's Analysis: 

The layoffs are the main concerns with the two favorites, and I suppose leave this race open for some of the others.

I couldn't quite get to any of the alternatives and sided with #2 Bandita, slightly, over #4 Nic's Style - not that I will be betting on either of them. If I had to bet the race I would take a shot with #1 Benedetta, who I believe is better than she looks on paper.

David's Response: 

I just don’t want to take short prices on horses coming off extended layoffs. And it should be noted that #2 Bandita got to control a very slow pace on debut before spurting away. She’s not going to get that same trip here with other speed drawn on both sides of her, particularly #5 Girls Weekend. Bandita has been working impressively and may just be too good for this group, but I have some reservations. #4 Nic’s Style is a little more trustworthy since she has won returning from a long layoff in the past. I just question the quality of the fields she’s beaten in both Florida starts, and she’s potentially even more one-dimensional than Bandita.

I want to take a shot against these with #6 Killy Start. This spot might look a little ambitious for a horse just claimed for $25k, but she’s been rounding into career-best form lately. She had no chance to close against the in-form Deck of Cards two back, and then last time she should have won when locked inside and forced to steady a couple of times. She’s now been claimed by Fernando Abreu, who is 11 for 54 (20%, $3.31 ROI) first off the claim over the past 2 years. She just seems to be thriving right now, and she’s going to be a square price given the presence of those two favorites.

David's Analysis: 

I resisted the temptation to just put #5 Hue on top and turn the page. I have a sense that this filly may just be better than this group based on the potential she’s displayed on dirt. Her debut at Churchill was a lot better than it looks on paper, and she kicked in nicely once steered into the clear last time. Her pedigree is much more geared towards turf than dirt, and she will beat this field if she improves at all on grass. Yet, I can’t get Harvey Pack’s line out of my head, “Never bet a favorite trying something for the first time…”

I think #6 Empires Princess fits this race pretty well once you parse her form to find the turf sprints. She faced better company in allowance races this spring, and she’s probably dropping to the right level. I don’t care about the last race where she ran under the name of a low-percentage trainer Linda has been using to claim horses from Churchill.

After the scratch of Quiescent, there's very little speed left in here. Perhaps #4 Miss Bourbon can get to the front. She's a wild card on the turf, but she has some pedigree and looks like one that should take to it. She just needs to improve considerably.

The horse that I think will offer the best value, and thus my top pick and likely play, is #3 River Tay. The 5 1/2 furlongs may look like it could be a little short for her, but she ran fairly well sprinting on debut. I’m not sure she was ideally suited to going two turns after that as much as she just improved with racing. Her one-mile maiden victory here last summer was largely a function of her possessing a sprint finish in a paceless race. I thought her two dirt sprints from earlier this year weren’t that bad, and now she’s back at the ideal class level.

Mike's Response: 

I had the same feeling regarding #5 Hue. I wound up taking a shot against her but I expect her to be hard to beat. 

I'll try #7 Turf Rocket, who has been facing some much better horses recently going longer. I don't love horses cutting back on turf, but this filly has sprinted effectively in the past and did so vs. some pretty good fields. 

Mike's Analysis: 

My main opinion in this race is that I don't think ML favorite #7 Macaw has to win this race. He earned a field-best 76 Beyer missing by a nose going this distance two starts back, but he appeared to struggle with the mile in that spot, and I don't really care for the horse that beat him. 

#4 Salacious is dropping sharply for this following a poor effort in his NY debut 17 days ago. He was returning from a layoff in that spot, and he also caught a sloppy track that he didn't have to love. He faced some good MSW fields when switched to dirt earlier this year at Tampa, and he held his own in those races. 

David's Response: 

This isn’t a race that I have much interest in betting. I agree with Mike that #7 Macaw isn’t the most trustworthy favorite, especially going out for Linda Rice, whose barn hasn’t been nearly as potent with these types as it was last summer. And I have no problem with Mike’s top pick.

My alternative is #9 Ramesses. He has some questions to answer as a dirt horse, but he is a son of dirt route influence Good Magic. He seemed to transition to a sloppy track without issue last time, staying on after a wide trip. Now he takes the blinkers off for Saffie Joseph, who is in the midst of a terrific meet. It’s also interesting that he served as the workmate for Skippinglongstocking on July 27.

David's Analysis: 

Perhaps I’m overcomplicating this race by taking a stand against #4 Call Me Harry, but he’s going to be a short price based on his perceived class advantage. He surely has run races in the past that would easily beat this field, but he just hasn’t looked like the same horse since returning as an 8-year-old I don’t really like any of his efforts this year. It’s also not as if he possesses some kind of pace advantage here, as #3 Laurel Valley and #9 Mawell Esquire have to show early speed. Plus, it’s not as if the Rick Dutrow barn has been lighting up the tote board lately.

I’m mainly focused on horses exiting the July 21 race at this level. #6 Bettrluckythangood may attract attention due to some perceived trouble in mid-stretch, but I thought he got a good trip overall. That said, I can’t deny that he’s been improving with each start this year and I don’t want to discount his chances to get another favorable setup. #2 Locke and Key finished ahead of him last time with a clear run, but he did get a wider trip overall and will be a better price, so I’ll upgrade him slightly.

For me, the bet is that race’s 5th-place finisher #5 Rough Draft. Not only was he racing closer to a pace that completely fell apart that day, but he was doing so while going 4-wide around both turns. He actually did well to briefly challenge for the lead in upper stretch before flattening out. He didn’t run well two back, but he was returning from a brief freshening that day. His April 21 effort at Gulfstream is a lot better than it looks due to another poor trip. I do wish this race were a half-furlong shorter for him, but he is in deceptively strong form right now, the barn has been having a solid meet, and the price should be fair.

Mike's Response: 

I guess Call Me Harry is the one to beat but I had the same reservations that David laid out above.

I didn't love the horses exiting that 7/21 race for the level and wanted to look elsewhere for an alternative.

I wound up going to #8 Agent Creed, who just looks like a nice fit here at what should be a fair price. He probably got the wrong trip last time when forced to contest the pace from a long way out vs a strong field. 

Mike's Analysis: 

This race is very similar to a rain-off from Whitney Day two weeks ago with the field only slightly changed. It was a tough race when originally scheduled, and it is just as tough on Saturday. 

I greatly respect #4 Freedom Trail and think he might be the horse to beat, though I do want to see what price he winds up at. 

The horse I want to bet is #8 Mondego. I really liked Mondego's allowance win from just off the pace last June, and thought he ran well in some tougher spots after that. He is 0-2 so far this year, but he got the wrong trip in those races while setting/contesting fast paces both times. Trips are going to be important in this race, and Mondego has proven that he can be effective both with and without the lead. 

David's Response: 

I also respect the talent that #4 Freedom Trail showed last year. John Terranova has good stats coming off layoffs, but I don’t want to take a short price on a runner like this. He also does his best running as a deep closer and there doesn’t appear to be much speed in this race. Perhaps that makes Mike’s pick, #8 Mondego, more interesting, but I haven’t loved either of his races this year.

I want #9 Reckoning Force. He showed talent early in his career before he got derailed by a significant layoff that put him on the shelf for nearly a year. He was just run off his feet in his return at Gulfstream, but he rebounded with a good effort on May 2 at Churchill. I don’t care about the 12-furlong race, but he ran extremely well last time in a race that is somewhat underrated. He was perched 3-wide without cover on the turns, and still battled on gamely to the wire when challenged late. I’m hoping he can save a little more ground this time for Tyler Gaffalione, who has been riding great all meet.

The other horse that interests me at a bigger price is #6 Mendelssohns March. I commented three weeks ago in this space that he probably needed that return race, and he was ridden like a horse who wasn’t really geared up to win off the layoff. I do think he showed some talent last year and can build on that form as a 4-year-old. Now he’s second off the layoff with upside, and he figures to be a generous price once again. I’m using him.

David's Analysis: 

I’m expecting Bank Frenzy and Donegal Surges to scratch in favor of Sunday’s Evan Shipman, which most helps #10 Timeout, who will now break from post 8 provided no more scratches. He’s very much the horse to beat coming off his 3rd-place finish in the Curlin. I was mildly disappointed in his effort that day, but it was a race where no one made up significant ground, and it’s not as if he really regressed from a speed figure perspective. 

#6 Rocketeer was the horse I initially thought I was going to pick in this spot. He was contesting a fast pace at this level last time and hung in gamely for second. However, that was a much weaker spot than this, and it’s not like he’s going to be a great price going out for Brad Cox.

I do want a horse with some tactical speed since there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this race without Bank Frenzy. That should put #2 Digital Ops in a favorable position from his inside draw. At first glance, the inclination might be to dismiss this horse as a fluky 14-1 winner last time, but he was pretty game in victory that day. Runner-up Pentathlon came back to win on Thursday with a 96 Beyer, suggesting that the race is better than it appears. Digital Ops is bred to run all day, being out of the two-turn specialist Flora Dora, and he has the stride of a horse that just wants to lope along at one pace. He figures to be a decent price again, and he still has upside for a top barn.

Mike's Response: 

I am not against Timeout, though, like David, I was a bit disappointed in his Curlin. 

I really liked Rocketeer in that last race and thought he ran very well. Not sure that I want to go back to him, especially with the likely scratches bringing his price down a bit.

The horse I am betting in this race is going to be a big price, and he is not the kind of horse I really want to try to talk anyone into.  

#1 Cartucho made an impressive debut over seven furlongs early in the year at Tampa. He didn't look like a polished horse in that race, but he won easily while giving off the impression that there was better to come. He faced Mindframe in his next start, and had little chance to seriously impact that race behind the talented winner once he was rated back off a slow pace. Cartucho was bad when last seen in early June, but I thought he received a terrible ride in that race and was lost in no-man's land from the opening bell. This might not be the right spot, but I think there is something there with Cartucho, and want to try to make money with him while he is still unexposed. 

Mike's Analysis: 

The Grade 2 Lake Placid pulled a very good field and I found myself making cases for just about everyone. Even as I write that, I do recognize #7 She Feels Pretty as the horse to beat. She will be the favorite, and deservedly so, but this race goes beyond just the short prices.

One horse I definitely want to use is #10 Dynamic Pricing. Her form might look a bit inconsistent on paper, but I do not think that is the case in reality. Dynamic Pricing had a no-chance trip in the Florida Oaks three starts back and actually ran much better than it looks. She rebounded to win a Grade 2 in her next start, and that was a strong effort by her from start to finish while keeping a solid pace within her sights, before closing it down. She finished behind She Feels Pretty in a Grade 1 last time but had another tough trip in that race.

I thought both shippers were dangerous but was much more interested in #6 Les Reys. Whether heavy ground is a valid excuse - or not - for her two poor races in France, it is clear that she was good in both starts prior to catching that kind of ground, and she has been even better in the three starts since. They appeared to change up her running style in her final two starts over there, and Les Reys responded with big runs from off the pace to win convincingly both times. I'll take a shot with her at anything like her ML line odds.

David's Response: 

Mike and I have similar takes on #7 She Feels Pretty and #10 Dynamic Pricing. I had initially put Deep Satin on top, but I did have some concerns that Cherie would scratch, which have come to fruition.

Going back over this race, I decided to upgrade #4 De Regreso. I had some interest in this horse when I initially handicapped it, and I think she now is in a position to get a very good trip up close to, if not setting, a pace that figures to be moderate. There just isn't any real speed in here, and she is going to have an opportunity to secure forward position and the rail from this draw. She might have to improve a bit, but she had been in very good form in Florida through spring and early summer. She was beaten in the Lake George against what was arguably a weaker field, but I didn't think she got the smoothest journey that day. She was a little keen when rated early and was in tight quarters when attempting to rally inside in the stretch. She's a big filly who needs to either be forward or get a clear run, and I think she'll have a better chance to accomplish that here. The price should make her worth a shot.

David's Analysis: 

This Alabama really benefits from the absence of Thorpedo Anna, as it came up a pretty compelling race for handicappers. I readily concede that ML favorite #7 Candied is the most likely winner, but I also expect her to go off at a pretty short price. I think there’s a perception out there that she is far and away the second-best 3YO dirt filly in the division, and I’m not so sure that’s been proven out just yet. That 99 Beyer in the Lady’s Secret pops off the page, but I didn’t buy it before or after her CCA Oaks regression. She’s still the horse to beat off her last effort, but I don’t think her chances of winning are in the range of 40% to 50%, as her price would suggest.

Is Candied really that much better than #3 Power Squeeze, who was beaten by a similar margin by Thorpedo Anna in the Acorn, and that was without the benefit of the favorite blowing the start, as she did when facing Candied. Power Squeeze got mildly shuffled back heading into the far turn of the Acorn, otherwise she might have gotten up for second. She just tries hard every time, and I don’t get the sense that added distance is going to bother her at all.

I see two interesting new faces in this lineup, and they’re both daughters of Arrogate. I know Mike has interest in #4 Just Basking, so I’ll let him elaborate on that filly.

I strongly considered Just Basking, but I ultimately decided that #8 Neon Icon had a very similar profile to that rival, the major difference being that she’s less exposed and will thus be a much better price.

Neon Icon still has to prove that she can step up against top competition, but I think it’s easy to make some excuses for her Indiana Oaks. First off, the Indiana Oaks featured a much better field than the Iowa Oaks, so I want to be careful not to overrate Just Basking based on that one race. (As Mike will surely point out, there are reasons to like her off prior efforts.) Neon Icon was also compromised by an awkward start and having get rated behind a slow pace (blue color-coded in TimeformUS) that completely held together. As she displayed two back—albeit against overmatched turf horses—she’s a galloper who wants these longer distances. She's also bred for this, being out of a half-sister to Horse of the Year and Alabama winner Havre de Grace. She obviously needs another step forward to beat these, but I don’t think the standard for success in this race is as high as some handicappers might think.

Mike's Response: 

I am not against the favorite in this race. All of Candied's races are good, including the CCA Oaks where she was put on the chase after a superior rival and managed to stay well to be clearly second-best. The figure for the race two back might rate a little high but she galloped in that race. 

I would not try to beat her with Power Squeeze, though I greatly respect that filly. 

I probably would have just conceded the race to Candied if not for the presence of #4 Just Basking. Figures don't mean as much to me as they do to some others, but the fact that she earned a competitive one when dominating the Iowa Oaks last time is a positive. That race serves as her coming-out party, I suppose, but I would have liked Just Basking off of her other races, and not just the maiden win over this distance two starts back. Just Basking finishes strongly in her races, and I appreciate the fact that she is able to get on the move to get herself into position before the field reaches the stretch while still delivering a powerful late run. 

Mike's Analysis: 

Even if it didn't appear to be the case on the track, I suppose one should be open to the idea that #7 Unlimitedpotential is damaged goods considering the way that he was dumped by his prior connections three weeks ago. He cuts back to a mile from the chute for this start, but if he runs that last race again he will win right back, and his new trainer is not only bringing him back in relatively short order in a protected spot, but he is also excellent off the claim. 

Of the four returning from the 5^th race on 7/27, I preferred #6 Have You Heard and #3 Yo Daddy. Have You Heard did not run particularly well that day, but he was cutting a pretty strong pace while trying two turns for the first time on dirt. He cuts back for this and is comfortable racing without the lead. Now he just has to run a faster race.

David's Response: 

I thought #7 Unlimitedpotential was a horse to play against. That 92 Beyer he earned last time is highly suspect (TimeformUS has it a much slower race.) I think we got some confirmation that the number is off when runner-up Whiskey N Soda needed every bit of a perfect trip and headbob to beat a weak field on Friday. The Kantarmaci’s do a fine job, but I don’t trust this horse at all and he seems destined to be a short price.

#3 Yo Daddy is an obvious alternative, but I didn’t like the way he hung in the stretch last time when he appeared to have dead aim at the leader. That’s also another race where I want to see a 9-furlong fig validated.

If I’m going to take a horse from that July 27 affair, it’s #4 Who’s the King. This colt got steadied early and reacted badly, throwing his head straight up in the air. It’s no surprise that he failed to produce a run after that. He must have a very light mouth, because he seems to overreact when his jockey takes a hold of him. When he gets a clean run, he’s capable of producing efforts that will win this, as he did two and four back. Tyler Gaffalione is his regular rider and has surely learned something about him. If he can stay clear and settled this time, I think he’ll be tough to beat.

David's Analysis: 

I found this to be one of the least compelling races on an otherwise strong card. Likely favorites #3 Heart of the Night and #5 Beautiful Thief both make plenty of sense. Though, the former has had plenty of chances, and I fear the latter could get overbet on the assumption that she’ll improve second time out.

I instead sided with #8 Barefoot Disco, who has to improve a bit to beat the chalks. Yet she’s run pretty well in both prior starts, which were separated by nearly a year. Now she’s second off the layoff, which might help her sit closer to the pace than last time. She possesses a better finish than either of the two favorites if she can avoid dropping too far back.

Mike's Response: 

I don't have a strong opinion in the finale. I prefer Beautiful Thief to Heart of the Night, and I won't use both of them. I am using David's top pick and also thought about putting that filly on top.

I am interested in #11 Long Legged Queen, but she needs a scratch to get in. She is bred for turf and I thought she ran quite well in her debut on dirt.

I also thought that #1 Lucy Playa was an interesting first time starter and will try to get her in there at a big price,