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Woodbine: Saturday 10/6 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
Best Bet: STATE TREASURER (9th) Spot Play: SECRETSOTHERNEPHEW (2nd)
(2) FALCOR BLUESTONE has been inconsistent as of late, but he's coming off a win at this level and looks like the best horse in here. (5) CATCH THE DREAM is always a threat at this level when he behaves himself. He's gone some tough trips lately. (9) TALE TO TELL has terrific gate-speed and can get into position early in the mile. He can overcome the outside post nine.
(7) SECRETSOTHERNEPHEW has won at this level before and the Filion-Moreau combination can never be overlooked. (4) SMOKEYS LUCK makes the jump up in class after two victories. He deserves a try against this field and has drawn a favourable post. (1) CAMPASSER has been rather inconsistent this season. He's been blessed with the rain and shows gate speed. He might offer value.
(5) LEONIDAS DE VIE has been knocking on the door lately and went a tough trip from post 10 last start. This class is always tough to predict, so you might get value. (7) CLEOPATRE DUHARAS has posted two solid qualifiers and looks fresh and ready to go. He's competed at a higher level in the last. (9) RATE EXCHANGE looks like he races best from off the pace and he gets Waples back in the bike, which never hurts.
(3) SPARTACUS JIM comes out of the claiming ranks after a very impressive win. It was his lifetime best and with a repeat effort, I think he's the horse to beat. (2) IDEAL MATTERS was a longshot last week and finished second over an off track. He draws much better this week at the same level. (5) KYLE MAJOR is always competitive at this level and continues to pace in 1:51.
(7) LUCKY JET is clearly the horse to beat in my opinion after winning the Grassroots championship. He'll be looking for his fifth straight win. (6) MODERN XHIBIT raced terrific in last start from post eight over a half-mile track. I think he can step up even more in here. (1) ESPEN DE VIE did all the work last week to fade to fourth. If he gets a clean trip, I believe he's a factor.
(7) BALLYKEEL MIKE has been knocking on the door in his last two starts. I feel he can jump up and win one, he's due. (3) PAIGING KADABRA scored an impressive win last week with a solid final quarter. He does move up in class, but I feel he's competitive. I feel (8) RED ZEPPELIN can hit the board based on the way he's been racing lately. He shows terrific gate-speed, which never hurts at Woodbine.
(2) WHIPPET GOOD has been racing very well lately and I feel he can handle this group. He's drawn inside and you might get value on him. (6) WAZZUP WAZZUP draws a decent post. I only hope that he's put into play early. (10) BULLET SPEED has to overcome post 10, but he's a top threat if he's put into the mix early.
(1) WAASMULA really impressed me last week after doing all the work on the front-end, a tactic she usually doesn't do. In this short field, she certainly can post back-to-back wins. (7) TEA PARTY PRINCESS looks like she's been finding her best stride as of late. She'll likely offer minimal value again. (8) MODERN CONNECTION has a pair of starts under her best now and is a 'must have' in your triactor/exactor wagers. She's fresh and has the talent to upset.
(6) STATE TREASURER looks like the horse to beat after his impressive stakes season so far. He went sub-1:50 over a five-eighths mile track and can certainly do it again on the big oval. (7) SPEED AGAIN has posted back-to-back wins and certainly has found his best stride late in the season. (8) ADMIRAL TIME has a impressive record this season and although he's moving to this circuit, I feel he can't be overlooked.
(6) ROCKINCAM has posted wicked final quarters and with no Aracache Hanover in here, I think he's the horse to beat. (4) BIGTIME BALL was flying late in the mile last week to finish third. I wouldn't be surprised if he found the winner's circle in here. He simply can't be overlooked. (7) BETTOR AGAIN is a horse that can't be overlooked. He's the type of horse that can benefit from a short field with his off-the-pace tactics.
I'm going to play (7) REBEL JET in here and hope to get value. He enjoys being near the front and that never hurts at Woodbine. He has enough speed and talent to handle this group for MacDonell. (6) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY adds lasix for the first time and has been consistently been a threat in his last three starts. I think the big track will serve him well. You can never overlook a David Menary entry and that's why I selected (8) MACHMAN to be a part of the triactor. He went a tough trip last week and I think he can rebound.
(8) DOUBLE DRIBBLE posted his first win of the season last week and I'm hoping that trend continues. This is a light field and I think he can benefit from that. (4) LENNON BLUE CHIP has competed and won at a much higher level and has enough back-class to be a major contender in here. (10) MY MAN CHARLEY has had a solid 2012 campaign and has terrific gate-speed, so he can overcome post 10 in my opinion.
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