01/13/2016 12:05PM

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/14 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,7/4,6,7/2,3,4/5,7,10/1,4 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 2,6/1,4/1,3,5,8/3,6,7,8 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 3,6,7,8/3,4/4/2,3,6 = $24

MEET STATS: 192 - 584 / $1035.80  BEST BETS: 30 - 53 / $102.60

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 53 / $183.80


Spot Play: NEW STANDARD (7th)

Race 1

(7) BAD AS LEADER ripped off a lifetime-best score in the opening leg of this series last week and should repeat here. (1) MATTJESTIC TEMPO makes her second start back from a break and gets a better post. She could threaten the choice with the right trip. (2) TILIKUM looks best of the rest.

Race 2

(6) WANAKA finished quickly in both of her last two starts and won't be held off much longer. (7) BIG RED LAVEC has tractable speed and looks like the main threat. (4) ERJA could give the top two a tussle if she stays flat.

Race 3

(3) TWIN B SWEETHEART got stung early last time and paid the price. Post relief here should mean an easier trip. She will need instant results to make the final of this series, too. (4) DOUBLE OLIVES raced aggressively last time but was nailed by the pocket-sitter. She might be better coming off a helmet. (2) CAMPS BAY looks good off her last start but always seems to be coming too late; minor share predicted.

Race 4

(7) SANDY DE VIE made an aggressive move in the third quarter but couldn't sustain it last time. She could do much better here if she can latch onto some cover. (5) WINDSUN GLORY is a full-sister to one that won 12 of 29 last year as a 3-year-old and took a mark of 1:54 2/5. Stable is typically patient but this one could be ready at first asking. (10) MONEY MAGIC is logical but needs to clear quickly to have a shot. (2) JENS CREDIT is out of a dam that has produced 7 winners of 98 races total; consider for exotic wagers.

Race 5

(1) VEGILANTE HANOVER drops in class here to a more logical spot and he could attract a claim halving in value. Look for Christoforou to move earlier this time. (4) REGAL FAME just about lasted despite the pace picking up considerably late in the mile last week. Keep him on your Pick 4 tickets. (2) JENKINS CRREK gets major post relief for his second start in this class. He could make some noise at a big price.

Race 6

(8) CALIFORNIA RACHEL stopped when racing over an off track last time. Look for a more patient drive here and a better result. (5) CRAZY BLUE has faced better in many of his recent starts and should go better here. (1) COUNTRY PROPHET has three races in his past six that would make him ultra-tough tonight. Complicating matters is a 4-week break after a poor finish; head scratcher.

Race 7

(7) NEW STANDARD raced okay in his debut behind a dominant winner. The 3rd-place finisher has already come back to win in his 2nd lifetime try; top call. (8) COME ON AARON is from a decently producing dam and finished quickly in his Jan. 4 qualifier; using. (3) DANCINTHESHADOW faces substantially easier here and should wake up with a better try. (6) KWICKY KWANZAA gets a significant driver change; take note.

Race 8

(4) AMAZING CONTROL was the easiest of winners last week in the opening leg of this series and looks good to repeat here. (3) CRACKLIN ROSIE made a big recovery after breaking when racing following a 3-week layoff. Returning in 7 days should help here. (8) DONTBRUISECARRIE converted off a perfect trip but that journey will be hard to duplicate from this post.

Race 9

(4) IWILLNOTBEMACHED dropped to this condition last week, set a solid pace and won easily. He seems to have found his level; call to repeat. (1) SURF REPORT moves back to a 7-day cycle here after missing a month and is in with a good chance. (7) JIMMY BE GOOD closed nicely late to score an upset last week and his good form should be respected.

Race 10

(6) BIG BANG BOOM qualified sharply on the 7th indicating he might have some issues worked out; top call. (2) BAD GAMER looked hopelessly out of it at the three quarters last week and rallied strongly late to win. He's a must-use in the late Pick 4. (3) BIEBER HANOVER can get a good piece of this racing from close range. (10) GIOVANNI raced well last week and has done well from the 10-hole in the past. (7) SPORTY MERCEDES could share returning from a break here.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 6:35 p.m.]