03/15/2015 11:27PM

Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/16 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4: 1,7/1,5,7/1,6/3,5,7 = $36                                                      

MEET STATS: 106 - 311 / $573.40  BEST BETS: 14 - 30 / $82.30 

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 29 / $59.20

Best Bet: BIG PACKAGE (2nd)

Spot Play: CASIMIR OPPEE (4th)

Race 1

(6) TEAM CAPTAIN is bred to win early and in his second start showed great improvement visibly motoring down the centre of the track to be a good 2nd. There are some good ones in here but he could do with a more aggressive steer. (1) NOBETTERPLACETOBE was overtaken by a good one in the 3rd 1/4 and couldn't recover from that move. He can go better vs. these. (2) JET BLACK CADILLAC displayed better late speed last time and should share here.

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Race 2

(8) BIG PACKAGE was re-claimed by trainer Maxwell who won two straight with him in February; top call. (7) EW FISHER has been the model of consistency for conditioner Cirasuola but has missed almost a month's action; tough call. (6) EL ROCK went a big first-up trip last time and just failed. He is a threat off that mile.

Race 3

(4) D GS JUSTLIKETHAT was a game winner Monday night, bravely holding off (1) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT late. These two are the main contenders again with a slight edge to the former. (5) JUNIOR PRIDE has excelled since joining trainer Dowling's barn and may be up to challenging these with the rapid improvement he has shown.

Race 4

(7) CASIMIR OPPEE is the first foal out of a dam that won two of her first three starts and 22 races lifetime. She showed enough in her qualifier to suggest she may be ready to roll first out; top call. (1) WINDSONG LEO has started his career nicely out of town and this doesn't look like too much of a step up. (5) GIVE EM BACK showed some nice improvement in his penultimate race then broke stride last time. He can get a good piece of this if he stays flat.

Race 5

(5) SEAWIND PASCALE produced a big speed try last week and was an unlucky loser late. That start may have tightened him up even more; top call here. (7) STANDING MY GROUND battled hard with the choice and tired only late. A better trip can yield a better result. (1) SAMIRA HANOVER has talent and issues and it's tough to predict which of those will be more prominent from race to race.

Race 6

Several in this group change hands and of those we'll call (6) SMOKEYS LUCK on top. He went many months without a win but now is clearly at the top of his game and moves into the potent Menary stable. (1) ROCKNROLL BAND also moves into a high % barn off the claim and is a big threat here from the rail. (2) MISTER ICON is the 3rd entrant making his first start off the claim and also figures prominently throughout.

Race 7

(3) CHASIN RACIN has shown progressive improvement in his last two andgets top call in this wide open dash. (5) ARI ALLSTAR drops back into the lowest conditioned class following a decent effort vs. better and looks like the main danger. (7) MACHAPELO dropped into this class and was driven much more aggressively. He fits here and is another in with a shot.

Race 8

(5) WELL WRITTEN blasted home late to be a clear second and has displayed talent in his young career; top billing here. (3) SPIRIT OF AMERICA took a major mid-race shuffle and could get a decent piece of this with some better luck. (10) AMERICAN ROCK ventured south to try a stakes series in New Jersey and was no match. These are more his people.

Race 9

(1) HOUSE OF TERROR transferred his good form from Rideau Carlton and was an impressive winner first time over Woodbine. He can take another. (5) WHISKEY N PIE is on a 3-race win streak and showed a new dimension last time passing horses late. He's the one to beat. (7) ARRIVED LATE exits a swift mile and is capable of better vs. NW2. Look for this one to be sent early.

Race 10

(7) HES A SENSATION has dropped enough money off his card to plunge to the lowest condition level here and should be prominent throughout. (4) COBBLE BEACH makes a similar drop but has been dreadfully win-shy. (3) JAC SPADE gets his favorite pilot back which should produce a better result. (8) JOLT OF WHISKEY also drops and should be a factor late. (10) GLAMMIT has shown better in his last two and should be included on wider pick 4 tickets at a big price.

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