03/28/2011 3:01PM

Twice the Appeal

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Date Track Race Finish Chart Distance Time BSF Video
3/27/11 SUN Sunland Derby 1st 1 1/8 mile 1:50.80 89 Video

Twice the Appeal

Owner: Edward Brown Jr., Victor Flores, and Henry Hernandez
Trainer: Jeff Bonde
Record: 10-3-2-1
Best Beyer: 89
Breeder: John T. L. Jones III
Tomlinson Distance Rating: 251

Auction: $4,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2009); $35,000 juvenile (Barretts, May 2010)
Dosage Profile: 5-1-7-0-1 (14)
Dosage Index: 2.11
Center of Distribution: 0.64

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PROFILE

By Steve Klein

Strengths
Twice the Appeal is peaking at the right time, with wins in three of his last four races. He earned his biggest win in his last start, the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 3 Sunland Derby, earning a career-best 89 Beyer Speed Figure. Looking only at 1 1/8-mile races, it should be noted that possible favorite Dialed In has earned a 90 and a 93 Beyer from two races, numbers that are only marginally better. He has enough tactical speed to be placed within comfortable striking distance. The presence of jockey Calvin Borel, winner of three of the last four editions of the Kentucky Derby, is a significant plus.

Weaknesses
He graduated in a $30,000 maiden claiming race four starts ago, but he is obviously a much better horse now. He has only raced once against graded stakes company. Looking at all but his last two races, he will come up short in most comparisons with other contenders, but his rapid recent improvement minimizes much of the significance of that fact.

Betting Value
Borel will attract betting support, perhaps so much so that this horse will be overbet at something like 20-1, rather than the 40-1 or higher he might otherwise have been.


PEDIGREE ANALYSIS

By Dan Illman

Sire:
Successful Appeal won five graded races at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile, including a 119 Beyer performance in the Grade 2 Kentucky Cup Sprint going six furlongs on dirt at Turfway Park. Although he won the Grade 2 Withers around a one-turn mile, Successful Appeal lost his other eight route races.

At stud, he has been a good producer of precocious sprinters and milers. J P's Gusto won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs while Appealing Zophie scored in the Grade 1 Spinaway at seven-eighths. Among the better longer-distance runners Successful Appeal has sired are Closing Argument, second in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, and Successful Dan, the winner of the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes at nine furlongs at Keeneland.

Dam:
Twice the Appeal is a half-brother to Board Elligible, the winner of the Montauk Handicap for New York-breds at nine furlongs. All eight of Board Elligible's victories came in route races.

The dam was winless from 20 starts, but is a full sister to Keep It S. S., the winner of the Spend a Buck Stakes at one mile on turf. Selective, a half-sibling to the dam, won the Escaped Handicap at 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt as well as the Bernie Dowd Handicap at a mile on grass. Another of the dam's half-siblings, Cologny, won three stakes at six furlongs

Outlook:
Twice the Appeal boasts a pedigree of speed over stamina. Although the female side of the family gives him bottom, it could be argued that he will be most effective at distances up to, and including, nine furlongs.


THE WIZARD'S PACE ANALYSIS:

Late runner was kept within range early in his Sunland Derby victory after dropping very far back in the Turf Paradise Derby. He has proven to be a one run type of horse that will likely be well back of a hot pace.