01/28/2017 11:05AM

Saturday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Bourbon Empire can outstay Bavaro on the stretch-out

Email

Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up now

 

Bavaro (#5) has done nothing wrong in two starts and last time served notice that he may be more than just a talented New York-bred sprinter. That 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned would win the majority of open-company 3-year-old stakes races run throughout the country. However, there are some things to note about that race. He was afforded an uncontested lead and allowed to set a slow pace (indicated by the blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs). Furthermore, he was racing along a very strong rail Dec. 17, a card that was dominated by inside speed.

Given a short price on Bavaro, I prefer BOURBON EMPIRE (#4).

I really liked this Mark Hennig trainee's performance last time, where he was the only horse to make a serious late run behind the talented Gold for the King. He finished up as if more ground should be no issue, and he’s certainly bred to handle the distance as a half-brother to six-time route winner Lutheran Miss. Fellow speeds Haul Anchor and Carradine could go after Bavaro early and set things up for this late runner.

 

THE PLAY

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5

Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL