08/04/2013 12:16PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 5, 2013

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Dave Litfin’s Analysis [BEST BET: Bobby Jo (6th race)]

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1 Making only his ninth start, it's an understatement to say 6-year-old WINNING TOUCH has been sparingly raced, but he usually runs well on dirt, including two good-figure efforts on this racetrack; gets a pass for return at Arlington vs. synthetic specialist Mish Mosh. PRECIOUS METAL has won previously when switched from turf to dirt by David Jacobson, who reclaimed the gelding last out; nearly overcame trouble to win lone Saratoga outing last year. MARTINI MADNESS also has a history of running well when coming off a grass race, notably a last-to-first score at 8-1 last August; moves up on wet tracks. Closer Looks >>
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2 BOOGIE TOO returns to dirt, where he hasn't been since Feb. 15, when a clear second to Make Your Move, who won two of his next three starts; one of two in the field dropping to $25K for the first time. FAIRY SNOW led to the final strides at 35-1 in Belmont finale on short rest; nice breeze 13 days later, big rider switch today. COUNTERCYCLICAL debuts at a substantial discount from 2-year-old sticker price; dam produced $204K earner Dream of Atlantis. Closer Looks >>
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3 Recently, KING CYRUS has kept similar training schedule as CHISHOLM, and his withdrawal from Saturday's seventh race allowed the latter to get in from the also-eligibles; not much on the dam side, but in Todd we trust. SOUPERFAST is a half-brother to Uncle Mo, 2-year-old champ who began career with resounding win at the Spa; came across the street for two recent five-furlong drills on the main track. TIGHTLY BRIDLED sold for $330K in May, or 5 1/2 times the stud fee of recently deceased sire Unbridled's Song; out of a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Finder's Fee. Closer Looks >>
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4 HOBOKEN JOE has finished in the money in each off his first three turf starts, defeating several of today's opponents; the one to beat on grass if he maintains recent form. FREUD'S PLEASURE has a respectable Tomlinson rating (305) for grass; shipper from Finger Lakes worth a look in maiden dash where no one has run to the 72 Beyer par. GREELEY PACK is a half-brother to Classic Pack, who banked $281K on turf and won the 2007 West Point here; boasts layover dirt numbers in the event of a surface change. Closer Looks >>
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5 If switched to the main track at seven furlongs, OFF MY CLOUD would bring all the best dirt figures to the table; tough trip in Monmouth mud last out vs. Angel's Song, a 34-1 winner at Saratoga after that. On turf, BLOSSOM'S TRAIL won her first three outings before taking on the big girls in the Grade 2 Lake George; versatile in terms of pace placement. EXCHANGE CAT stretches back out to a mile, where she won her initial grass start Apr. 19, and ran second in the Tweedside eight days later; figures close in a matchup where the early pace picture is fuzzy, and where most have very similar Beyer tops. Closer Looks >>
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6 After a mild rally going long at Parx, BOBBY JO cuts back to six furlongs, where she ran second in each of her first three starts off the claim, capped by a clash with last week's Honorable Miss runner-up Classic Point; breezed nicely for this. MISS MISCHIEF was up close early, dropped back several lengths to the stretch and erased a deficit of better than five lengths to win return from 11-month layoff; entitled to move forward off that race. MY SPARKY was claimed from front-running triumph off a freshening July 11; faces a potential pace duel with MADRE DITUTTICAPI, who won twice on dirt in June before troubled trip on turf. Closer Looks >>
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7 If switched to dirt at 1 1/8 miles, MOST HAPPY FELLA has been a popular commodity at the claim box, and would be coming off a lifetime top Beyer over the track last week against odds-on Caixa Eletronica. Otherwise, SNEAKY KITTEN drops from stakes in his last pair (the latest rained off the turf at Mountaineer), and breezed sharply last week; consistently competitive figures. FRONT added Lasix for return to grass in the spring, and won back-to-back starts in promising fashion; tough spot vs. stakes-seasoned rivals in July 13 return. TAPITDAR steps up after winning his first two this year; continues to train forwardly. Closer Looks >>
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8 HOLIDAY SOIREE has kept tough company this year, running twice in Grade 1 stakes and meeting the likes of recent Spa stakes winners Dance to Bristol and Silverette as well; purchased after Princess Rooney, first work for new barn was a bullet. APROPOS had some trouble as the 3-2 choice in last behind Burban, who was loose on the lead throughout; has won or placed five straight, while twice running well from the inside post. WELL KEPT comes off a huge figure victory with similar spacing between races; flattered when 2nd & 3rd finishers returned to win, including Baby J's upset of Grade 3 Victory Ride. Closer Looks >>
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9 If the Waya is switched to the main track at 1 3/16 miles, ROMAN INVADER has been second, beaten less than a length, in her last four dirt starts, the latest earning a career Beyer top. On turf at 1 1/2 miles, KISSABLE finished strongly to win last year's Waya going away in her second North American start, and was a rallying fourth in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor with first-time Lasix two starts later; buried on snow-soaked deep rail in Long Island before being put away, got rolling too late making seasonal bow in Bewitch vs. QUSHCHI. The latter has been in the money all four U.S. outings on firm & yielding ground; nipped prior to freshening by Treasured Up, who returned to win off-the-turf edition of the R.G. Dick Memorial. Closer Looks >>
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10 STARSILHOUETTE has been a virtual ATM machine for her connections the past two seasons, winning nine times at five different venues from 13 starts; got a freshening after working harder than expected to prevail at Belmont, and returned with her best dirt number in off-the-turfer at Mountaineer. LADY'S LUNAR LUCK tries open starter/optional foes after two near-misses as the favorite in New York-bred allowances; final fractions consistently solid. PAGAN PRIESTESS makes third start of the year after comeback races in July on the Mid-Atlantic cicrcuit, the latest an improved effort with a near-peak figure; exacta finishes 50% of the time on grass. Closer Looks >>
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