Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 21, 2013
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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: Amberjack (9th race)] |
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| 1 | SLEEK is a half-sister to two winners and has several workouts that match up with stablemate Artemis Agrotera ($2.90), who won debut last week by nearly a dozen lengths; also-eligible gets the call if started. COURT DANCER is unveiled by George Weaver, who saddled first-out maiden winner Hot Squeeze ($14.40) last week; dam has produced four sprint winners.POSSETIVEVIBRATION has nine winning siblings, ISABELLE is by an excellent debut sire, and FEE AND SUGAR has been readied by trainer profitable with new shooters. |
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| 2 | TANGLEWOOD TALE was a debut maiden winner in Saratoga mud back in 2011, and reaffirmed affinity for this surface with big win July 26; given nearly four weeks between starts to recover from new top Beyer, must sidestep a bounce. BELLE GALLANTEYhas been mostly in allowance company this year, except for July 3 when she chased 1-2 Sing Dixie Sing on wet track; didn't get much pace to run at first out at meet vs. up-and-coming Uno Duo. SO BLESSED flashed improved speed second time off the claim; might vie for the early advantage with SoCal shipper QUEEN MERCURY. |
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| 3 | REGAL JOANNE had some trouble in the stretch when unveiled on this course last year, and has since won twice on dirt; returned from layoff in tougher spot at Monmouth forcing the issue vs. 3-2 choice Lucky Liberty. SAROPIA dashed clear early and led to final yards when run down by allowance dropdown Chelsea Road in first Spa turf sprint; may get some pace pressure from SWEET SWAY. IMANINDIANOUTLAW was in contention to the stretch before fading vs. Saropia in seasonal bow; should be fitter this time. |
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| 4 | Back to turf for the first time in 11 months, WINNING CAUSE kicked in strongly late to beat several of these under similar conditions July 28; steady-going stretch runner has the rail again. SAYAAD makes the third start of his form cycle after sharp try vs. Hear the Footsteps, who was winning third straight; involved early with ELUSIVE SON and MICELI. A contested pace could benefitONE MORE CAT, who was closer to the early leaders here July 28 than in first two grass races that featured better finishes. |
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| 5 | TUVIA'S FORCE gave it a good try against 22-time winner Caixa Eletronica and held second under these conditions July 27, his third exacta finish from four Spa starts; must work out a trip from far outside. ITSAGOODTENDOLLARS has won at 1 1/16 miles a couple times, but the hard-knocking 7-year-old enters unchartered waters at 1 1/8 miles; has inside position on main early rival TALK THERAPY, who is on good form seeking third win in a row. POINT TAKEN is in midst of productive 4YO campaign with four wins and $126K in the bank; beat Itsagoodtendollars in one of their frequent meetings downstate. |
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| 6 | I'M SMOKIN HOT drops from maiden special-weight dash won by Kiss Me Lola, who returned to narrowly miss in allowance company last week; figures to improve second time turf and second back from five-month layoff. WITH DIAMONDS was claimed from each of first two starts at Belmont when she set the pace on turf and dirt; may come under fire early from PASSIONFORSONGS. Perched outside is LARA, who broke from same position in only turf try vs. allowance repeater Wild Grace; broke alertly in off-the-turfer early at the meet. |
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| 7 | APEX makes third start of his form cycle and moves toward the outside after breaking from posts #1 & 2 on wet tracks earlier at the meet; drops notch coming out of same race as LET'S HAVE US ONE. The latter raced wide in muddy return Aug. 1 and edged forward to a new top Beyer; dueled for lead to deep stretch here as a 2-year-old. EASEMENT switches from turf for what will be first dirt start on Lasix; late threat based on rallying third in debut. |
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| 8 | ZINDAYA begins career for Christophe Clement, whose four turf debut winners this meet include sprinters Cavetto (9-1) and Belly of the Whale (9-2); half-brother Western Aristocrat was a first-out winner in England and won Grade 1 Jamaica in first U.S. start.RUSLANA sped clear from the get-go and was overhauled deep stretch when unveiled opening week; Lasix now. SUPER SKY leapt at the start and trailed, found best stride belatedly behind Ruslana in bow; big threat if able to draw in. |
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| 9 | AMBERJACK has reeled off three straight wins at different distances on fast & wet tracks since layoff and barn change, with steadily ascending Beyer line capped by 99 for sloppy N.Y. Derby score; picks up weight and stretches out in search of $250K bonus for sweeping "Big Apple Triple." GO GET THE BASIL flattened out vs. Amberjack at Finger Lakes, but has posted 90+ figures in two of last three starts on fast tracks; stretch runner can make it a race if he brings "A"' game. ESCAPEFROMREALITYgot through first-level allowance conditions at seven furlongs July 4, his first start since troubled trip in Gotham; game try vs. Go Get the Basil as a second-time starter. |
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| 10 | CIELO SOLEGGIATO chased to midstretch when switched to turf with blinkers added first out in five months vs. Orino, who was recently disqualified from first in New York Stallion event; call in dart-thrower of a nightcap. RAKETE should find this an easier spot after 10 attempts in special-weights; lone entrant cutting back from longer race. SOUTHERN MATCH went evenly vs. odds-on Vinny Goodtimes and was claimed opening week; new owner-trainer Mike Maker has good blinkers-on numbers. DISASTER RELIEF didn't get any pace up front lone outing this year; first time for tag. |
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