08/10/2013 12:00PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 11, 2013

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Dave Litfin’s Analysis [BEST BET: Gritty Gal (3rd race)]

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1 ALL ALEX faced better while routing vs. maiden special-weighters, before turning back from 1 1/4 miles to win a six-furlong dash passing eight horses in deep stretch; Linda Rice has good first-off-the-claim stats, and took this one for herself. BOLD FOREST drops from tougher spot vs. Hyman Roth, who has won three of last four, a race where the horses running 1-2-3 early stayed that way throughout; okay in event of a switch to wet dirt at 1 1/8 miles. PYRO CITY looked set up to deliver a good race after paired Beyers at Delaware off the bench, but reacted negatively to rating tactics; wired maidens on this course last year. Closer Looks >>
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2 SWEET WHISKEY sold for nearly 40 times her sire's stud fee after quick one-furlong drill at OBS March sale, and has subsequently shown speed in a.m. trials here; call at first asking for leading 2-year-old operation. MALLORY STREET is a half-sister to four winners and has fired bullet works on both sides of Union Avenue for profitable debut barn; complicates matters if able to draw in. DIVIDED ATTENTION is out of Contrive, producer of Grade 1 2YO stakes winner Octave; A.P. Indy filly probably needs more ground, but bears watching. Closer Looks >>
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3 GRITTY GAL will benefit greatly from the fact that TALENT N PASSION ran and won Friday, as that removes the only other multiple winner, and what would've been her main early pace challenger, from the equation; tough spot in overnight stake at 7Fs two back, claimed from dead-rail trip July 7. SOUTHERN SYMPHONY switches from turf back to dirt, where she was second in three straight starts prior to freshening; susceptible to sluggish starts, but popped out of the gate on top in grass dash vs. richer. POP POP'S SMYLE has run Beyers in the 50s all seven starts on fast tracks, along with a 70 the one time she caught off-going; adjust accordingly with the last-out D. Jacobson claim. Closer Looks >>
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4 GREEK GOD ran evenly and beat half the field when tried in a stake first out vs. Long On Value, who is now 3 for 3 after coming back to take another stake at Delaware; homebred half-brother to two turf winners is likely to improve for terrific stretch-out trainer. RACETRACK ROMANCE has questionable turf pedigree, but trainer is 2 for 4 with 2YOs debuting in maiden-claiming turf routes past five years; big numbers for wet track should race move to dirt at seven furlongs. MEXIKOMA got a race over the course and some experience with traffic two weeks ago; trainer's only other blinkers-on starter won. Closer Looks >>
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5 SHE'S STONES SIS has the fastest recent figures, the latest coming on this track three weeks ago when run down by Galiana, who is now 3 for 3 on dirt after coming back to garner her N2X allowance condition Thursday; looks like the main speed as well. TWO SUSANS gets extra real estate to work with after uncorking good stretch run to win six-furlong debut in a photo; note seven-length break back to third finisher. ZEKES SURPRISE makes third start of the year after two turf races, including $100K stake vs. Frosty Bay, who took another N.Y. Stallion race Thursday; stakes placed over this track at 2. Closer Looks >>
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6 WE MISS ARTIE had some early trouble behind runaway stablemate All in Blue first out, and has since had two turf workouts; entrymate INDIGO KITTEN boasts top Tomlinson rating for grass. BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS is also bred well for turf both sides; barn usually live with debuting Spa turf routers. PATENT is a half-sister to several turf winners, notably Tizaqueena, who won 4 of 12 and $462K on turf for Darley Stable; bred to relish switch to wet dirt at seven furlongs, as is DRIVE, who would then be the other A.P. Indy in the lineup. ALL TIED UP fetched 10 times sire's stud fee at the OBS March sale; consider either surface. Closer Looks >>
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7 MAGNIFICENT SHIRL wound up in an off-the-turfer on wet track only previous allowance start, and has been in stakes before and after since maiden win; compromised by slow paces both Belmont outings, exacta finishes all four starts at a mile. After handling two next-out graduates in synthetic debut, SENSE TO COMPETE switches to turf for Graham Motion, who sent out Rapscallion ($31) to win first-time grass opening weekend; half-sister Lady Digby won Grade 3 All Along on turf for same connections. YES IT'S PINK has been favored for last five outs, racking up all three of her New York-bred conditions and a respectable fifth vs. open company; has won on non-firm ground. Closer Looks >>
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8 JESS NOT JESSE returned from another extended absence and prevailed in a head-bob 10 days ago, running his local record to 4 for 4 at expense of former stablemate Awakino Cat, a four-time stakes winner in Spa turf sprints; won off similar quick turnaround July 2011. PARTLY MOCHA is third back from a layoff and back to course where he had two less-than-ideal trips in 2012, one of them in the Quick Call; live outfit. DOWNTOWNOSCARBROWN has won two of three on dirt this year by 20 lengths; ample pedigree for the surface switch, as half-sibling Plenty was 4-4-0 from 10 grass starts including a Spa allowance. Closer Looks >>
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9 Well, look WHO'S IN TOWN with a second-out 2-year-old moving from a Delaware debut win to a Grade 2 stakes: it's Michael Matz, who did the same thing winning the 2011 Saratoga Special with Union Rags (who improved from a 66 to a 95 Beyer); stock rose when the filly she blew away returned to win here Thursday. FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD is obvious after two blowouts, but has yet to feel any outside pace pressure as she probably will here from post 2, and beat suspect bunch in the Debutante (runner-up ran 5th at 1-1 at Prairie Meadows next out); no cakewalk today. UNTAPABLE got experience running inside horses in Churchill debut and remained clear while racing a bit greenly in the lane; barn had 4 2YO wins including share of the Schuylerville through Friday. Closer Looks >>
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10 Wide-open renewal of the Saratoga Special where anyone can win without it being termed a big surprise. CANDY DANDY broke alertly from the rail, deftly came around to stalk duelers and drew away nicely at six furlongs first out; flattered when stablemate Dunkin Bend returned to win big here, and 3rd finisher stretched out to win on grass. WIRED BRYAN shied from whip but the New York-bred still drew off in the Sanford, although it's unclear to this point exactly how strong that field was; like recent Spa winners TWANG and CORFU, he is back on relatively short rest, while the top choice has had six weeks. Closer Looks >>
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11 SHEEDBDAWON was beaten by JENNYS CREEK and CELESTA in her first two starts, but improved measurably at Belmont last time out behind an odds-on dropdown winner from Bill Mott; trainer leads the nation in grass wins this year. Jennys Creek and Celesta, 2nd and 5th in their June 20 meeting, are obvious threats. DISCREET MALENA debuts in a field where no one has matched the Beyer par of 73; ground-saving trip in store with J. Rosario.. Closer Looks >>
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