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Santa Anita Derby has Hear the Ghost, Flashback side by side
By Jay Privman
ARCADIA, Calif. – Flashback, the beaten favorite in the San Felipe Stakes last month, and Hear the Ghost, who upset him in that race, drew the inside two post positions in a field of nine on Wednesday for the Grade 1, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday.
Flashback, who will start from the rail with new rider Garrett Gomez, was installed as the 9-5 morning-line favorite by Santa Anita’s Jon White, who tabbed Hear the Ghost, to be ridden by Corey Nakatani, as the second choice at 5-2.
The rest of the field, from the rail out, is Power Broker (Rafael Bejarano up, 5-1), Tiz a Minister (Joe Talamo, 6-1), Goldencents (Kevin Krigger, 6-1), Super Ninety Nine (Martin Garcia, 6-1), Summer Exclusive (Edwin Maldonado, 20-1), Storm Fighter (Gary Stevens, 20-1), and Dirty Swagg (Tyler Baze, 50-1).
All carry 122 pounds in the 1 1/8-mile race, which offers 170 points overall - 100 to the winner - under the system put in place this year by Churchill Downs to determine the field for the May 4 Kentucky Derby.
The only surprise was the late addition of Summer Exclusive, a maiden winner sprinting at Santa Anita in his debut on March 23.
Bob Baffert has three horses in the race - Flashback, Power Broker, and Super Ninety Nine.
Baffert was hoping to avoid the rail with Flashback, who started from post 2 in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe and got caught up in a speed duel with Goldencents.
“I really don’t like the one hole,” Baffert said.
Hear the Ghost just got scratched.
Power Broker is probably the best horse, but who knows (other than Baffert) if he can be 100% coming off the layoff and the throat problem in December. Apparently his latest works have been outstanding. Flashback will get a much better ride from Gomez, stalking Super 99 and Goldencents. Hear the Ghost is a fine horse as well and should make it into the exacta with PB. Flashback and Super 99 under the top two. Goldencents is over the top by all accounts and will be the odd man out this time.
I think that both Har the Ghost AND Flashback will run even BETTER races with the same ending result. Heat the Ghost gets a second race off of the layoff and he looks like he will appreciate the extra ground. I think Flashback can hit the board at 1 1/8 but I don't know if he will be BETTER at that distance...
You canbet Garrett will not send Flashback, He is too smart and too Good for that.
Flashback has not been a closer in any of his races and surely not in the San Felipe. Those of you saying he closed need to watch the video on DRF. The track that day was listed as fast but was sloppy the day before and was drying even at the time of the San Felipe. The speed may be able to stay out front longer but it just depends on how hot the pace ends up. Most the the trainers with front end speed have been working to get their horses to relax for the SAD but that will leave Flashback and Super 99 to inherit the lead if those horses relax. Should be a really good race. The Ghost just may not get there, only time will tell.
If he's fit and the pace melts down, don't forget about Power Broker. He's a Grade I winner on this course around two turns coming from off the pace.
SS99 will take care of Goldy up front and the flash will come sweeping down the strerch with the ghost following him. At the wire it's a 4 horse photo and Goldy will not be in that photo, but there might be a Minister there.
BB's whining about the 1 hole get's old. Every post has its challenges.
For those looking for "closers" in the SAD, Flashback will be a (short) closer in this race. If there is going to be an upset, I predict Super Ninety Nine. This race has all the markings of the old "inverse pace scenario"....or in other words, exactly the opposite race shape of the San Felipe. The horses involved in the pace of that race will do everything to avoid the same fate. That will leave Super Ninety Nine galloping on the front end unchallenged. I envision Flashback passing his stablemate in the stretch to win and '99 hanging on for 2nd to complete a Baffert exacta.
Flashback will win! Single Him! love the jockey switch!
- 1.Posted 12/10/2013 02:23PM
- 2.Posted 12/09/2013 01:54PM
- 3.Posted 12/10/2013 02:25PM
- 4.Posted 12/10/2013 01:46PM
- 5.Posted 12/10/2013 01:42PM