10/04/2012 4:30PM

Red Mile: Saturday 10/6 Analysis

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Best Bet: A ROCKNROLL DANCE (9th)    Spot Play: YUCATAN (6th)

Race 1

(2) ABS BEACH BOY reunites with MacDonald, who posted an 8-length score with this guy here on September 1. This looks like a good spot. (5) LAST SECOND SHOT has been racing well and now gets the all time wins leader in the bike. (1) FEYS BLITZEN GREY seems fast enough to compete. The layoff is the only concern.

Race 2

(1) MARKET SHARE gets a nice training mile before the Breeders Crown at Woodbine. Something crazy would have to happen for him to lose. (4) IL MAGO woke up in a big way last time and seems to like the track here. (3) PRAYER SESSION has never missed the board in 2012; exotics must.

Race 3

(4) ROAR raced evenly for the most part last week. That is acceptable considering he missed almost three months of action. I’m sticking with him. (1) FRESH N FAST is the clear one to beat off last week’s mile. (5) ONLY THE LONELY moves inside; chance.

Race 4

(3) ROMANTIC MOMENT had a tough trip in a fast mile here last week. She should bring her usual big effort and deserves top billing. (1) BIG MCDEAL was used early in that same race. Speed from the cones and a good trip are very possible. (5) DESTINYS CHANCE showed improvement last week.

Race 5

(7) SHELLISCAPE continued to be sharp with a win last time. There seems to be enough speed in here to set her up. (1) AMERICAN JEWEL coasted versus easier foes last week. This task is tougher but well within her comfort zone. (6) ECONOMY TERROR reunites with Palone, who guided her to a career best mile a few starts back.

Race 6

(7) YUCATAN has a ton of excuses from his last start: bad post, layoff, got impeded. I can see him bringing a big effort today. (2) FUDGE has yet to win this year but is clearly fast enough. (1) IYAMWHATISHAM has been on a roll on the fair circuit; test today. (8) SPARTACUS PV has the early speed to play with these.

Race 7

(2) FOLL ME ONCE & (1) ROCKIN AMADEUS stand out in this field. I’ll give the edge to the former because he has been winning. (3) TWILIGHT BONFIRE rallied nicely last time but will need even more today.

Race 8

(5) ODDS ON EQUULEUS took care of business in the Bluegrass, but those that bet him were robbed by the Judges, who dq’d the horse in a head-scratching decision. He should get it done today. (8) DOCTOR BUTCH has rolled through the NYSS circuit and now tries his luck against Open foes. He might just be this good. (2) TERESAS BEACH could perk up the exotics if he minds his manners.

Race 9

At first glance it looks like (12) A ROCKNROLL DANCE has tailed off a bit. But a closer look shows that he was really up against it in the Jug with tough trips and that he basically took it easy last week. Despite starting from the second tier, I expect Gingras will follow Bolt The Duer away from the gate and be very aggressive with $500k on the line. (5) SWEET LOU has been steady yet unspectacular of late. With other contenders stuck in the second tier, he won’t find a better spot to wake up. (3) BOLT THE DUER failed to shine last week but is clearly capable of much more. (11) THINKING OUT LOUD only needs a clear trip to unleash his furious stretch kick.

Race 10

(1) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS doesn’t appear to be facing the strongest bunch today; should sail home. (6) RESISTANCE FUTILE finally got his act together last week and rolled through the stretch. I can see him improving off that effort. (5) DEDIS DRAGON has been racing very well. (2) GOOD DAY MATE is 8 for 8 first or second this year.

Race 11

(6) JOHNY ROCK missed four weeks prior to his decent third place finish in the Bluegrass. He should be fit and ready now. (2) APPRENTICE HANOVER is capable of going a big mile if he can behave; tough call. (4) SIR RICHARD Z TAM brings a solid effort every time.

 

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