03/14/2013 2:15PM

Rebel Stakes: Super Ninety Nine can give Baffert fourth straight win

Email

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. – Super Ninety Nine has been unbeatable since moving to two turns, and his trainer, Bob Baffert, has been nearly as effective with his starters at Oaklawn Park. On Saturday, Super Ninety Nine will be heavily favored to give Baffert his fourth consecutive win in the Rebel.

Lookin At Lucky started Baffert’s streak in the 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds in 2010. The Factor followed in 2011, and last year, Secret Circle delivered. In all, Baffert has won 13 stakes from 18 stakes starts at Oaklawn since the 2010 meet, at which he went 4 for 4. Baffert’s most lucrative season came a year ago, when he swept Oaklawn’s graded series for 3-year-olds and went 6 for 9 in stakes for purse earnings of $1,930,000.

Saturday’s Grade 2, $600,000 Rebel drew 11 entrants, including four that are on Daily Racing Form ’s Derby Watch top-20 list: Super Ninety Nine, tied for fourth on the national list at odds of 12-1; Delhomme and Oxbow, each listed at 30-1; and Den’s Legacy, who is 50-1.

[REBEL STAKES: Get Oaklawn PPs and watch video previews]

The Rebel is a 50-point qualifying race for the Kentucky Derby and a springboard to the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 13. The Rebel Day card is one of the highest attended programs of the Oaklawn meet. The 11-race program also will feature an appearance by champion My Miss Aurelia in the Grade 3, $150,000 Azeri.

Super Ninety Nine is 2 for 2 in route races. He made his two-turn debut two starts ago at Santa Anita, winning a one-mile allowance in 1:35 while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. He trumped himself last month in the Grade 3, $300,000 Southwest at Oaklawn, a 1 1/16-mile race he won by 11 lengths. Super Ninety Nine was given a Beyer of 102, the best career number in the Rebel.

“He’s a much better horse routing,” said Baffert, who trains Super Ninety Nine for Tanma Corporation. “He has natural speed. He’s fast, and he just keeps on, he just rebreaks.

“Last time, he just kept on going.”

Super Ninety Nine will likely have to call on his speed early in the Rebel to secure position after drawing post 11.

“We’ll need luck,” said Baffert, who has given the mount to Rafael Bejarano.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with odds and video]

Baffert also has entered Den’s Legacy, who will be coming at them late. Den’s Legacy won the Grade 3 Generous at Betfair Hollywood Park in November and has since finished third to Violence in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity, second to Goldencents in the Grade 3 Sham, and second to Flashback in the Grade 2 Lewis.

“He’s the kind of horse that’s been knocking on the door, and we feel he deserves a chance to run,” Baffert said. “It’s good to ship him, see what he does on the road.”

Robby Albarado has the mount for Westrock Stables.

Delhomme was third in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in his last start Nov. 24 and shows a strong series of works for his first start at 3. The Rebel became his target because the timing of the race works for Delhomme, said Todd Pletcher, who trains the horse for WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing.

“He got a couple of weeks off at WinStar following the Remsen, and timing-wise this race seems to fit his comeback schedule the best,” Pletcher said.

“He’s a big horse, carries plenty of condition, and we felt like a couple extra works would benefit him. He’s training very well coming up to the race.”

Delhomme set the pace in the Remsen and was beaten just three-quarters of a length by Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion while earning a career-high Beyer of 98. Pletcher said he liked how the horse fought on and noted that his effort at 1 1/8 miles was a “good sign he’ll handle the added distance as a 3-year-old.”

Garrett Gomez has the mount from post 4.

Oxbow, who wired the field in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds, also has speed. He will break from post 10.

“I think there will be a lot of pace, but I think you’ve got to let him do his thing,” said D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Oxbow for Calumet Farm. “We can sit for at least a little while.”

Oxbow comes into the Rebel off a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star. He was beaten just a half-length after being forced wide around both turns in a demanding trip in the field of 12.

“He’s a tough rascal,” said Lukas, who has given the mount to Mike Smith.

Treasury Bill will be making his two-turn debut following a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. Prior to that race, he won a maiden special weight sprint.

“I’m pretty excited to try him two turns for the first time,” said Ron Ellis, who trains Treasury Bill. “I think he’s a true two-turn horse.”

Joe Talamo has the mount for Gary and Mary West. Treasury Bill will be coupled with Title Contender, who also is owned by the Wests.

The Rebel offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points to its first four finishers, with the winner securing 50; second, 20; third, 10; and fourth, 5. Saturday’s forecast is for partly cloudy skies and a high of 74 degrees, according to weather.com.

MICHAEL More than 1 year ago
The KD is pretty simple to handicap lately.....throw out those early speed horses and pick one who ran on synthetic.....
Jim More than 1 year ago
Ever notice the NYRA horn blower uses a Kazoo?
Billy Spathanas More than 1 year ago
Now I know Al Stall Jr is 1 of the finest ever to look at a horse but what was he thinking when he entered CARVE for the Maiden tag of 30K. Nice claim Mr Mike Langford ...
David More than 1 year ago
DRF chose the six horse Santa Margarita over the full field Rebel as their race of the day. Can there be anymore doubt that DRF hasn't a clue? Tell me - which race is getting more attention nationally from bettors and the racing media? Someone at DRF please explain your decision to go with the Santa Margarita over the Rebel...i could use a good laugh.
violet johnson More than 1 year ago
it's called *Insanity* VQ
violet johnson More than 1 year ago
Daily Racing Form should run a contest for the Moniker that best describes their *Brain Trust* my suggestion would be *No Fk/In Clue* VQ
Robynrokn More than 1 year ago
Yea you would think Yahoo runs the DRF with some of these Race o day selections. Bet it came down to which track supports them with most ads. Oaklawn bein arKANSAS and all. Sure the Cali race gets the spot.
Sir More than 1 year ago
Carve getting the rail and a weight break? At 15-1, break me off a piece of that. Funny if Carve and Stormy Holiday somehow finish 1-2 as they are not Derby nominees.
[removed] More than 1 year ago
This comment has been deleted
Meydan Rocks More than 1 year ago
S99 doesn't need the lead. Go back and review his races before you place a single bet IF you do indeed bet. If you don't bet, enjoy the race regardless! :-))
Mark More than 1 year ago
No strong opinion in here . May take a shot at with Will Take Charge if ml sticks . Small wp.
Mark More than 1 year ago
Yep
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
FPS Ratings for the Rebel. The number in parentheses is the number of furlongs in the horse's most recent start; the number listed afterward is the FPS (feet per second modified for track variant) less 44 FPS. (In some cases, I also included the numbers of the previous start on some of the others.) Carve: (2) 11.5, (2) 10.5, (2) 7.7, (2.5) 8.1 Total: 79.8 Treasury Bill: (2) 10.1, (2) 14.0, (2) 9.9, (1) 9.0 Total: 76.9 Texas Bling: (2) 11.8, (2) 10.8, (2) 8.7, (2.5) 3.4 Total: 71.1 Previous (2) 13.2, (2) 12.2, (2) 8.8, (2)5.6 Total: 79.6 Delohomme: (4) 10.5, (2) 9.7, (2) 8.4, (1) 7.9 Total: 86.0 Previous (2) 11.3, (2) 11.1, (2) 11.5, (2) 8.2 Total: 84.2 Hardrock Eleven: (2) 9.9, (2) 10.6, (2) 8.0, (2.5) 0.1 Total: 57.6 Previous (2) 12.0, (2) 15.3, (2)9.0, (1) 6.5 Total: 79.1 Den’s Legacy: (2) 9.4, (2) 8.3, (2) 11.3, (2.5) 7.6 Total: 77.2 Previous (2) 11.4, (2) 11.9, (2) 10.3, (2) 7.6 Total: 78.3 Will Take Charge: (2) 9.6, (2) 10.8, (2) 9.6, (2.5) 5.1 Total: 72.8 Previous (2) 12.7, (2) 12.3, (2) 9.0, (2) 5.7 Total: 79.5 Stormy Holiday: (2) 11.5, (2) 12.3, (1) 10.2, (1) 10.1 Total: 67.9 Previous (2) 10.7, (2) 11.7, (2) 9.7, (2) 5.9 Total: 76.1 Title Contender: (2) 12.1, (2) 10.9, (2) 7.9, (2.5) 7.2 Total: 79.8 Oxbow: (2) 10.2, (2) 10.9, (2) 10.2, (2.5) 7.9 Total: 82.3 Previous (2) 10.3, (2) 11.4, (2) 9.6, (2.3) 7.5 Total: 80.1 Super Ninety Nine: (2) 13.0, (2) 10.8, (2) 9.5, (2.5) 7.0 Total: 84.2 Previous (2) 11.8, (2) 11.0, (2) 10.8, (2) 7.8 Total: 82.9 Analysis: At first glance, this is Delhomme's race to lose...and I think that is going to happen. So far, I haven't seen anybody coming out of the Remsen that did anything. Could be he won't either. Think about it: There were a lot of other races that all of the Remsen horses could have been entered in and they have only started running the last couple weeks; Delhomme is the last one. I was also watching a replay of the Remsen stretch run and he should have won that race. It looked like something might have "popped" about the sixteenth pole and he cruised in for 3rd. Oxbow had a rough way to go in the Risen Star; he may have been the best horse. He is the most seasoned in this field and starts inside of Super 99. I think Mike Smith may keep him out of the early nonsense between Super 99, Delhomme, and The Contender. Don't count out Carve to "carve" out a slice either. He could avoid the early craziness and be prominent in the late stages. Stormy Holiday could also get going late. I am not betting because Delhomme should get this on paper, but I doubt he runs more than 6 furlongs. Meanwhile, Super 99 will be winging with him but that will have an effect on whether he can last in the stretch. I give the nod to Oxbow because he is the most seasoned and could have been the best in the Risen Star (only to lose because of the trouble in the first turn).
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
Why go to all the trouble if your just going to throw those numbers out the window. You say it's Delhommes' race to lose, and he should get this on paper, then say you doubt he'll run more than six furlongs and throw him off the board. So, again, why go to the trouble?
Tom Temple More than 1 year ago
I know his reasoning may sound illogical but I am a believer. He picked West Hills Giant when NO one else did and also backed Hear the Ghost and both did real well. I like Super Ninety Nine but taking his advice on Oxbow. And, just by chance, watch Stormy Holiday get up in the money and do everybody in on their exotics. You go, Charles!
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
I think you missed the point. If you believe in those numbers and go to the trouble to work that all out and then post it, what is the point if you then throw them out and pick other horses having nothing to do with those numbers.
Sam More than 1 year ago
I don't think he missed the point. He's just sticking with a winner much like that guy who used figures to predict the winner of the presidential race. You must be one of those die-hard Republicans
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
and now you've missed the point. then don't bother with those numbers in the first place. how's that winner working out for you?
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
In the San Felipe he clearly picked Kochees, twice, which I gave him credit for as I had as much of a chance to win that. Hear theGhost had the lowest numbers in the entire field of the numbers he posted, but he did pick him second.
Rogelio More than 1 year ago
The DRF guys dont always pick the horse with the high Beyer...so why do they calculate Beyers? Figures are a good guide. They reveal who the contenders are in a way that other info does not. And Chuck's FPS figs are very illuminating, IMHO.
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
Now you know why I stayed out. These figures are what they are. They don't let you know when a horse is "up" or when he's "down" going into the race. The "logic" is more important than the mathematics. Evaluating the figures is a work-in-process. I have been noticing some things that involve unwavering pace and a sustained late figure. However, in this race I there is something to be said about Will Take Charge's previous start. Print these figures for this race and study them. Here's a clue: Who sustained the highest pace for at least 4 furlongs (not too mention that he too was wide in the first turn in that race)? The only thing that I have to say is that there is always something to learn with this game. My opinions come from reading (and re-reading) books on the subject as well as experience spanning over 30 years. This experience led me to pass this race. I could "feel" something wasn't quite right. I enjoyed watching it today, regardless if I didn't bet it. Let's see if we can get 'em next week in the Spiral...
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
Charles, I respect the fun you have in working those numbers and studying them. However, FPS numbers, for me, are completely worthless. I can decipher pace using quarters and eighths and it works just fine. I agree that many times races like this are a pass. Easy to figure that Oxbow would be right there, but has shown he can't get the job done, and for me Super 99 was a strong bet against. The money is made elsewhere for the most part. Like the $72 exacta in the first race and the $390 tri in the fifth. FPS numbers not needed.
Jim Fields More than 1 year ago
S99, Treasury Bill, Den's Legacy is my $100.00 straight TRI
Elijah Allison More than 1 year ago
Your losing a 100 haha
Thomas More than 1 year ago
i like your analysis of the race - i'm gonna bet an ice cold 10/1 exacta - t-bill will be pickin em up late just a matter if he can pick enough of em off
Tom Temple More than 1 year ago
I like your bet! Good luck!
Billy Spathanas More than 1 year ago
You might want to go 50 with that bet and use T Bill, S99, Dens Legacy with the other 50 Good Luck Jim $$
Jim More than 1 year ago
how often you hit those straight tri's? once a decade?
Chris More than 1 year ago
delhomme wire to wire.