04/28/2016 2:23PM

Mohawk: Saturday 4/30 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3,8/6/2,3/1,2,3,5/4,5,6,10 = $25.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,3,5/4,5,6,10/1,6/1 = $32

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,5,6,7/2,6,7/5,7,9/7 = $45

MEET STATS: 42 - 121 / $236.70  BEST BETS: 8 - 12 / $37.60

SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 12 / $7.10

Best Bet: JINS SHARK (2nd)

Spot Play: SOMEWHERE FANCY (11th)

Race 1

(2) TOPVILLE CHEETAH made an early power move last week on her way to a new life's mark. These are tougher but she can contend with the dramatic improvement she has shown in her last two and will be a better price here. (3) ARTIAWITCHTOYOU almost scored a big upset on her season debut and will likely be more forwardly placed early here. (1) TERRORCAM was hung the mile last time now draws inside which gives her a much better chance.

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Race 2

(6) JINS SHARK has won twice under wraps since shipping north after being bought privately, last week setting a new life's mark. His versatility should make him extra tough here. (5) VELOCITY DRIVEN should get a better spot early leaving from the middle of the gate and he will be passing most of these down the lane if given a reasonable trip. (1) NEWBIE has been a win machine this season but will need to turn up his game a notch to challenge the choice here.

Race 3

(2) SOME GOLD was getting good at the end of last year when turned out and brings a couple of good qualifiers with him for one of the country's best trainers of young horses. I'll give him the nod over (3) SHOCKING IMAGE, an interesting maiden entry who paced much faster in his April 21 qualifier than he ever has in a race for a purse. (1) WAR N MUNN tired and drifted out badly last week which makes me want to try to beat him at a short price here.

Race 4

(2) HOUSE OF TERROR was absolutely flying in the final 1/16th of the mile last week. He is clearly very sharp right now and will likely be sent for a much better position early; top call. (3) CROCADILE CANYON saved his energy for one big late charge and he too was flying late. He gets to drop in class here and is very dangerous. (5) SHADES OF BAY has been razor-sharp at Mohawk and is a threat here from on or near the lead.

Race 5

(6) SOLAR SISTER comes off a big sophomore campaign where she banked more than $500K. This isn't the easiest spot to make her 2016 debut but she is fast and classy and should contend right away. (10) WAASMULA is in tremendous form and may even be able to overcome this post considering how sharp she is. (4) MARLEE B is freshened and should get a good trip on cover here. This is a race with several contenders and possibilities.

Race 6

(1) CROWN CLASSIC made two moves on her way to an easy win in her return race and can double up here if she stays flat. (6) HURRICANE HAZEL went a big trip last week but was nailed late by a repeat winner and she is a top contender here. (3) YANKEE PUZZLE moves inside a bit and can contend here, especially if asked for more speed earlier in the mile.

Race 7

(1) MUCH ADOO went a big trip last week despite having missed five weeks. She should be sharper here returning in seven days; top call. (8) SOUTHWIND GEISHA has thrived at Mohawk and will be a better price here. She is a threat despite the outer post. (2) MAPLELEA should be better tonight with last week's tightener under her belt.

Race 8

(7) RENEGADE MAGIC has reached her best form now and will be a better price here with the move into non-winners of three; slight nod. (5) ELDORADO OF GOLD S was a sharp winner last week after having galloped for the entire mile two back. He is a contender but is erratic. (6) DUH BUBBEES is capable of a much better result if placed on or near the front and offers some potential exotics value here.

Race 9

(7) GERRIES SPORT was an impressive winner first time out for Moreau last week and can double up here. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW won his first three starts at two so is obviously capable off the shelf; using. (2) FLAHERTY gamely held on late in the mile last week and is another obvious contender here.

Race 10

(7) ELLIS PARK has been as sharp as he gets in his last two starts and could trip out here. I'll call him to upset last year's 'O Brien winner for Horse of the Year - (9) STATE TREASURER - who is obviously the best horse but also has bigger fish to fry down the road. Note that the latter was 6th and 3rd in his first two starts last year. (5) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP has been racing very well down south and his good form should transfer well here.

Race 11

(7) SOMEWHERE FANCY was forced to pace a 26 3/5 third 1/4 last week when he couldn't fish out cover and it cost him late. He should take this if provided with a slightly better trip. (2) CHEYENNE REIDER drops and should get a good pace to close into. (4) WAZZUP WAZZUP likely gets sent for the front at some point of this mile on the class drop and will have to be caught. (5) DALTON BROMAC N makes his second start off a vet scratch and gets post and class relief. All of those factors make him a contender here. (3) SHADOW PLACE also drops and could stick around for a slice here.

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