04/29/2016 3:49PM

Mohawk: Monday 5/2 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


20-CENT PICK 5: 3,4,5,8/2/1,2,4,5/3,4,5,6/6,8 = $25.60

EARLY PICK 4: 3,4,5,6/6,8/3,6/2,4,9 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,9/3,4,5,8/2/2,3,6,7 = $48

MEET STATS: 46 - 131 / $276.60  BEST BETS: 9 - 13 / $39.90

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 13 / $15.40

Best Bet: MUSCLE BABY DOLL (9th)

Spot Play: VELOCITY MIRAGE (1st)

Race 1

(8) VELOCITY MIRAGE makes his first start for trainer Weller after he bought him for himself in a private sale this month. That's good enough for me to take a stab in this suspect field. (4) CHALK PLAYER raced well behind a sharp winner in his sophomore debut but he has now run his record to 0-12. He looks like one of the ones in here, but is hard to love on top. (5) MACS STAR looks well prepped by Dr. Moore, who is batting 33% with horses returning from layoffs of 60 days or more in the past calendar year.

Race 2

(2) BEE IN CHARGE - 1/2 sister to 2013 Horse of the Year Bee A Magician - finally put it together last time and wasn't far from winning in a non-winners of two class. She should easily beat these maidens if she stays flat but will be a very short price and there is no guarantee she will trot the entire mile. (3) DAYLINER finished well vs. a strong winner and figures highly here but the 0-11 record is worrisome. (8) MAGIC SON was beaten by a horse in his qualifier that daylighted the field in fast time here on Thursday; using.

Race 3

(5) CHARLIE IS A JOKER has caught fire the past two weeks and finished quicker than he had been for several weeks. He should get a good spot early here and could score the three-peat. (4) FEARLESS MAN lost all hope when he broke at the start last time. He could rebound here but may be getting tired after so many tough miles spent on the engine. (2) O NARUTAC PERFETTO has never been better and could close for a good piece of this despite the class rise.

Race 4

(3) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE was heading for the front last week but got left on the rim in a 25 4/5 opening 1/4 which killed his chances. If he makes front here from a better post he could carry his speed a long way. (4) MARKATHY chased some big fractions last time and fell just short. He frequently looks like a contender, but his 2 for 55 record in the past two years is a concern. (5) YOURE MY HERO has big speed when he can stay flat, which he has been having trouble with recently. He is erratic but capable in this class.

Race 5

(8) BLISSFUL YEARS has faced much better than these for several weeks with little luck. Expect a big speed try similar to his Feb. 29 win here. (6) THE FIRE WITHIN had a decent race behind a tough winner last week and could hit the board at a price here. (3) VEGAS RICH makes his first start of the year off a decent qualifier and is another to consider at a price.

Race 6

(6) HILLSONATOR and (3) MYSTERY BET will be happy to escape the country's best trotter (Musical Rhythm) here. Those two look best with a minor shot given to (7) OAKLEA WYATT who has been finishing quickly and looks like the best chance to upset the top two.

Race 7

(2) WILD AND CRAZY GUY raced well from the 10-hole last week now will likely be sent for a spot near the front early from this inside post. He can trip out and score a minor upset here. (9) YOURE MAJESTIC has been racing well in some quick miles at The Meadowlands and is an obvious contender here but will likely be overbet. (4) CASH FOR GOLD pulled first up into a 27 3/5 final 1/4 which was a no chance proposition last time. He has a good shot here and his price will no doubt be better.

Race 8

(3) MAJOR HOMER moves inside after two tighteners and should get better position early in the mile here. (4) SHOCK N ROCK finished quickly to be second on a rapid mile but it's hard to say what will happen if he has to work for it in the middle of the mile. He looks like a contender nonetheless. (5) PIERCE HANOVER had a disappointing sophomore season but looks ready to roll here and should be a threat.

Race 9

(2) MUSCLE BABY DOLL was a sharp winner off the shelf last week and will take beating again here vs. many of the same mares. (1) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY finished a few lengths back of the choice when she too was making her seasonal debut. She looks next best but is likely fighting it out for place money if the choice brings her A game tonight. (4) SECOND SISTER beat males in her first 2016 start down south and can take a good share here vs. her own gender.

Race 10

(6) THE ROCK was super in defeat last week racing uncovered a long way. He could take this at a square price. (7) PERFECT VISTA has been racing great off a helmet and is sure to be flying late again here. (3) RAFA was really motoring late last week but has been an unreliable win bet and will likely be overbet here. (2) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE made a powerful move to win going away last week when claimed. He can hit the Super here in his current sharp form. (4) IMKEEPNTHISGUY will be passing many of these late on his way to a small share.

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