03/16/2016 11:26AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 16

Tom Keyser
Destin edges Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby last Saturday. Destin is 15-1 on the DRF Kentucky Derby future line, with Outwork at 20-1.


Outwork, who finished second to Derby Watch member Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Cupid and Whitmore – both scheduled to run Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park – are the three newcomers to this week’s top 20. Outwork is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line of Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Cupid and Whitmore are both 30-1. Several horses had their odds tweaked by Watchmaker after last Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes, most notably the favorite, Mohaymen, who was lowered to 4-1 from last week’s 5-1. Danzing Candy, the San Felipe winner, saw his odds tumble from 25-1 to 12-1, making him the fourth choice on Watchmaker’s line. Destin was halved from 30-1 to 15-1 after his Tampa Bay Derby victory.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: Suddenbreakingnews making headlines


Economic Model, Smokey Image, and Uncle Lino all were dropped following disappointing performances in the Tampa Bay Derby (Economic Model) or San Felipe (Smokey Image and Uncle Lino). Brody’s Cause, who had a dull 3-year-old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, remained in the top 20, but Watchmaker raised his price to 30-1 from last week’s 15-1. Exaggerator is up to 20-1 from last week’s 12-1 after finishing third in the San Felipe.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


The Rebel drew a large field, which will give a number of horses – such as American Dubai and Cherry Wine – a chance to muscle their way into the top 20. Others who just missed the cut this week were Adventist, Fellowship, Frank Conversation, and My Man Sam.

– Jay Privman

RICHARD More than 1 year ago
I'll bet you didn't know. The term "upset win" originated in horse racing. During the summer of 1919, the wonder horse Man O' War was beaten a nose by "Upset." This was a time before the starting gate, and Man O' War started the race facing the Wrong direction. It was his only defeat during a 21 race career.
RICHARD More than 1 year ago
On this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby no colt has faced obstacles like Swipe. A five thousand dollar purchase, and more 2nd place finishes than Firing Line, he went through surgery in November; and only recently started working again. His trainer describes him as " the little guy with the big heart." He may be the Cinderella Colt.
mike More than 1 year ago
No he isn't. not enough time.
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
yes sir ,my boy workout saturday at 6f from the gate in 1:12 he s gonna be a machine coming into the derby ,He s also gonna past everything infront of him.Horses with courage like he has go on to do huge things,can t wait to see him race...
d More than 1 year ago
Don't waste your money on Swipe. He hasn't ru since Halliween. With the KY Derby about 6 weeks away, he'll have 1 prep before the Derby. Not only does he only have 1 victory in his career, he isn't going to be tuned up enough to win at 1 1/4 miles in 6 weeks against 19 other fit contenders. Don't waste your money on a horse eligible for allowance 1x conditions that's not fit!
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
AHAAA ,so you know the horse better the its trainer ,who s said he s an easy horse to get fit do to his size and maturity ,also the horse has been training since Febuary , he ll be more than ready and I d rather see him with an easy prep then the race between Mohayman and Ny who ll will beat each other up.I hope everyone see swipe this way so the values there come derby day..
d More than 1 year ago
Anyone advising to key Mohaymen and Nyquist for 1st and 2nd with All in the tri and super has NO Concept of wagering, or betting value. Let's say it's a 10 horse FLA derby field, your tri ticket would cost $16 for a $1 ticket. You're keying horses that will most Likely go to post at 6/5 and 8/5. Assuming that they Even finish first and second and you actually cash The ticket (which isn't guaranteed), the payoff will range from $9 for a buck if the 3rd or 4th choice completes the tri and could go up to $30 for a buck With a longshot of 25-1 or so. Your payoff goes from hitting the tri and LOSING money on the ticket, to a best case result of getting about 2-1 on your money. Taking 2-1 on a trifecta is TERRIBLE and you'll go Broke doing that over the long run with a 20% tri Takeout at most tracks!
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
it would be far cheaper doing it like a pick 3 where u use the a b c method and wagering it to atleats pay 10 times if its really chalky
Kathy Loppnow More than 1 year ago
Can someine please tell When SWIPE is running?? He was in the derby futures last weekend for the first Time and I know he hasn't run since conf in 2nd to Nyquist In the BC Juvenille. Thanks for any info about Swipe!
Tom Gaeta More than 1 year ago
He's not pointed to any race at this time. I'm really rooting for him to make it to the Derby. He doesn't need many points to get the ticket to Louisville.
RICHARD More than 1 year ago
One things for sure. This derby may set a record for the most gray colts in a field of twenty.
RICHARD More than 1 year ago
There seems to be doubt whether Nyquist will have anything left after 10 furlongs on derby day. He ran a Swift 7 furlongs in the San Vincente, he was masterful at 8 1/2 furlongs in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Why then can anyone doubt he lacks the endurance to stretch it to 9 furlongs in The Florida Derby, and then 10 furlongs on May 7th.
Mike Reynolds More than 1 year ago
As much as I like Mohaymen, I remember his mother and think he may not be suited to 1 1/4. I look at Nyquist and remember Uncle Mo and think the same. Seems crazy after seeing them run, but we'll see.
RICHARD More than 1 year ago
Jay, for me this Florida Derby is the most anticipated match up since Affirmed and Alydar. Mohaymen has the home town advantage, and has consistently run near perfect tactically. In addition, may have superior endurance at 10 furlongs. Nyquist has a beautiful stride and as he demonstrated recently against Exaggerator, sustained speed. I'm convinced Mohaymen will run his signature perfect race. For the Eclipse winner, victory rests primarily in the hands of his rider. It's all about tactics.
Jack Armstead More than 1 year ago
I tend to agree with you Richard. I think the "Derby" will be run 5 weeks prior to the real KY Derby in FL. Nyquist was "very good" at 2 and appears to have improved slightly. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to FL for the "extra" $1,000,000.00 put up by Fasig-Tipton. Anyone who doesn't "key" Nyquist-Mohaymen with ALL with ALL in Tri's/Super's may very well be disappointed. I think Mohaymen is the real deal as well and will run according to how the pace unfolds. The rumor is that he is not a "push-button" horse and that what he does... he does on his own. This is a very SCARY thought because he's really not been too challenged in his races. He has rated, and when he's seen enough; he seems to do what he does... with very little instruction from the jockey. The only thing I don't like about the FL Derby is the track on that day. Usually, they have it "sealed" in the event of rain. When it doesn't "rain," that track is as fast as Interstate 10 (I-10). Consequently, there have been very few horses that run well in the KY Derby that came out of the FL prep's. I still blame Barbaro's KY Derby score on his lightning fast FL Derby. By the time he got to Pimlico, his legs were sore. When he broke through the gate (before the Start), I tried cancelling all my tickets where I had Keyed him hard. To this day, I have never seen such a quick "re-load" where the public wasn't allowed the time to change their tickets. I realize that it may have taken awhile to change people's tickets, but; we are the customers and Barbaro's fear was telling me to walk away. Poor Prado, he felt the worst and still feels it to this day.