03/16/2016 10:26AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 16

Tom Keyser
Destin edges Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby last Saturday. Destin is 15-1 on the DRF Kentucky Derby future line, with Outwork at 20-1.


Outwork, who finished second to Derby Watch member Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Cupid and Whitmore – both scheduled to run Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park – are the three newcomers to this week’s top 20. Outwork is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line of Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Cupid and Whitmore are both 30-1. Several horses had their odds tweaked by Watchmaker after last Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes, most notably the favorite, Mohaymen, who was lowered to 4-1 from last week’s 5-1. Danzing Candy, the San Felipe winner, saw his odds tumble from 25-1 to 12-1, making him the fourth choice on Watchmaker’s line. Destin was halved from 30-1 to 15-1 after his Tampa Bay Derby victory.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: Suddenbreakingnews making headlines


Economic Model, Smokey Image, and Uncle Lino all were dropped following disappointing performances in the Tampa Bay Derby (Economic Model) or San Felipe (Smokey Image and Uncle Lino). Brody’s Cause, who had a dull 3-year-old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, remained in the top 20, but Watchmaker raised his price to 30-1 from last week’s 15-1. Exaggerator is up to 20-1 from last week’s 12-1 after finishing third in the San Felipe.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


The Rebel drew a large field, which will give a number of horses – such as American Dubai and Cherry Wine – a chance to muscle their way into the top 20. Others who just missed the cut this week were Adventist, Fellowship, Frank Conversation, and My Man Sam.

– Jay Privman