03/13/2013 2:00PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 13, 2013

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Barbara D. Livingston
Hear the Ghost wins the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

WHO’S HOT

Hear the Ghost, who won the San Felipe Stakes, and Java’s War, second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby, make their first appearances in the top 20 of Derby Watch. Hear the Ghost is 15-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Watchmaker has Java’s War at 20-1. Verrazano has been atop the Derby Watch list since its debut more than a month ago, and he solidified his position with an easy win at Tampa. He is now 4-1 on Watchmaker’s line after being 6-1 last week.

WHO’S NOT

Falling Sky was removed from the list after finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby. He didn’t run poorly, but the two newcomers were adjudged more deserving at this point. Ive Struck a Nerve also was dropped after suffering an ankle fracture that will sideline him for at least six months. Flashback, second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 8-1 last week, saw his price rise to 15-1 after finishing second in the San Felipe. Similarly, Goldencents was raised to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1 after finishing fourth in the San Felipe.

ON THE BUBBLE

Treasury Bill has been knocking on the door for weeks and can finally bust it open should he perform well in his two-turn debut Saturday at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes, which drew a large field. With 50 points going to the winner of the Rebel, if the winner’s not on the list already, he will be after Saturday.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list and video | Wests have four Derby contenders]

Fire2Ice More than 1 year ago
After the Arkansas Derby, and a couple previous races, I don't see Gary Stevens wanting to ride Oxbox in the Derby. He is seriously considering being a "race analyst" if he doesn't get a good mount.
Crickett Hoffman More than 1 year ago
Handicapping the Derby on the day of the Derby is hard enough. Trying to handicap it before we know the field is impossible. Right now. Throw a dart. Just as good a handicapping tool as any at this point.
John Nicoletti More than 1 year ago
Unfortunately, most of the horses in the Derby, have not been bred to run the derby distance. The big horse this year is Verrazano, and unfortunately, he will not get the distance. Unless he outruns his pedigree, which i doubt, I will hang my hat at this particular time on Oxbow, and ,Super Ninety Nine.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Verrazano has not even sniffed a whip yet and closes full of run looking to keep going.. JV has all he can to keep him under wraps until the far turn. this horse just like Big Brown coming into April ...Speed and stamina tough combo wouldn't worry about the distance looking at his Dam's side
Karl Deppen More than 1 year ago
Picking the Derby winner or the one with the best chance before the race is a crap shoot at it's best. For now I'm just hoping to get my selection into the dance and that's all !
David Caivano More than 1 year ago
Bill Mott is way too sharp a trainer to put " all of his eggs in one basket" with points needed with My Name is Micheal. Beware everyone! This one will be heard from very soon. Just have faith in a world class trainer. You could do worse.
Ray Murray More than 1 year ago
He seems to be the real deal....How did he come out of that Tampa Bay race , I heard he grabbed a quarter is he ok...?
Drayton More than 1 year ago
Wow.... what does Verrazano have to do before you guys wake up ?
Kalar Walters More than 1 year ago
Go to the link above for the Derby watch list. Verrazano is number 1. duhhhh
John Nicoletti More than 1 year ago
Unfortunately,Verrazano's pedigree does not favor the Derby distance. I really like the horse but, if he runs in the derby,I think he will come up short. Super NinetNine, looks pretty good at this time, and so does,Oxbow.
Billy Spathanas More than 1 year ago
Goldencents goes from 20/1 to 30/1 since finishing a rediculous 4th under the aweful ride by Kevin Krigger. This is a better horse than what we saw last weekend. Put a real rider with a brain and nerve (now this might be a horse for the old man Gary Stevens)and you may have a bomb waiting to go off. Krigger, please, no brain , no nerve, me so sorry to talk like this....
Lisle Carmichaelgb More than 1 year ago
Are you out of your mind? Which race wre you watching? How can you blame kevin krigger for goldencents loss after you saw what flashback jockey did, you know nothing about race riding, and is just writing about Gary Stevens riding in the 2013 kentucky derby, Gary will get a mount he does not need you, he already has an agent.
Mark D More than 1 year ago
Krigger stints....plain and simple. I would make him 100-1 if Krigger keeps the mount.
Billy Spathanas More than 1 year ago
Tell me Lisle, what did JL do to KK ? I will tell you what he did during the running in the San Felipe, he put pressure on KK and his horse and that is what I mean about Brain. He also made him ride his horse a differant way, JL was probally chirping to KK all the way down the backside were he lost his Nerve. Sorry ....KK a good rider, okay , I'll give that, but thats it...
Keith More than 1 year ago
No question the strong staying speed of Hear the Ghost's sire, Ghostzapper, but Coronado's Quest and Valid Appeal seem to throw sprinters, and as broodmare sires in this one's first two generations, there you have it....two dedicasted sprinters as dam and granddam. Add to that this one's inexperience, his lucking into a pace meltdown in his first Stakes try and first route try, and he's 15-1 on the Derby Top 20 now? This colt may have lucked into the Derby starting gate with his 50 points acquired, But I doubt many will be jumping on that bandwagon. Keith L.
Ray Murray More than 1 year ago
If Falling Sky get into the Derby he will make a nice run. Honest hard working horse getting better each race....just like Funnycide did....
edb More than 1 year ago
Get him ready fot the derby trial. He is a very nice miler and he hangs tough to the wire. Oxbow is another miler.