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Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 13, 2013
By Jay Privman
Hear the Ghost, who won the San Felipe Stakes, and Java’s War, second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby, make their first appearances in the top 20 of Derby Watch. Hear the Ghost is 15-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Watchmaker has Java’s War at 20-1. Verrazano has been atop the Derby Watch list since its debut more than a month ago, and he solidified his position with an easy win at Tampa. He is now 4-1 on Watchmaker’s line after being 6-1 last week.
Falling Sky was removed from the list after finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby. He didn’t run poorly, but the two newcomers were adjudged more deserving at this point. Ive Struck a Nerve also was dropped after suffering an ankle fracture that will sideline him for at least six months. Flashback, second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 8-1 last week, saw his price rise to 15-1 after finishing second in the San Felipe. Similarly, Goldencents was raised to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1 after finishing fourth in the San Felipe.
ON THE BUBBLE
Treasury Bill has been knocking on the door for weeks and can finally bust it open should he perform well in his two-turn debut Saturday at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes, which drew a large field. With 50 points going to the winner of the Rebel, if the winner’s not on the list already, he will be after Saturday.
After the Arkansas Derby, and a couple previous races, I don't see Gary Stevens wanting to ride Oxbox in the Derby. He is seriously considering being a "race analyst" if he doesn't get a good mount.
Handicapping the Derby on the day of the Derby is hard enough. Trying to handicap it before we know the field is impossible. Right now. Throw a dart. Just as good a handicapping tool as any at this point.
Unfortunately, most of the horses in the Derby, have not been bred to run the derby distance. The big horse this year is Verrazano, and unfortunately, he will not get the distance. Unless he outruns his pedigree, which i doubt, I will hang my hat at this particular time on Oxbow, and ,Super Ninety Nine.
Picking the Derby winner or the one with the best chance before the race is a crap shoot at it's best. For now I'm just hoping to get my selection into the dance and that's all !
Bill Mott is way too sharp a trainer to put " all of his eggs in one basket" with points needed with My Name is Micheal. Beware everyone! This one will be heard from very soon. Just have faith in a world class trainer. You could do worse.
He seems to be the real deal....How did he come out of that Tampa Bay race , I heard he grabbed a quarter is he ok...?
Wow.... what does Verrazano have to do before you guys wake up ?
Goldencents goes from 20/1 to 30/1 since finishing a rediculous 4th under the aweful ride by Kevin Krigger. This is a better horse than what we saw last weekend. Put a real rider with a brain and nerve (now this might be a horse for the old man Gary Stevens)and you may have a bomb waiting to go off. Krigger, please, no brain , no nerve, me so sorry to talk like this....
No question the strong staying speed of Hear the Ghost's sire, Ghostzapper, but Coronado's Quest and Valid Appeal seem to throw sprinters, and as broodmare sires in this one's first two generations, there you have it....two dedicasted sprinters as dam and granddam. Add to that this one's inexperience, his lucking into a pace meltdown in his first Stakes try and first route try, and he's 15-1 on the Derby Top 20 now? This colt may have lucked into the Derby starting gate with his 50 points acquired, But I doubt many will be jumping on that bandwagon. Keith L.
If Falling Sky get into the Derby he will make a nice run. Honest hard working horse getting better each race....just like Funnycide did....
- 1.Posted 12/11/2013 03:00PM
- 2.Posted 12/10/2013 02:23PM
- 3.Posted 12/10/2013 02:25PM
- 4.Posted 12/11/2013 03:32PM
- 5.Posted 12/10/2013 07:22PM