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Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 27, 2013
By Jay Privman
Code West, Ive Struck a Nerve, and Orb are the three newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch Top 20. Orb, who won the Fountain of Youth last Saturday, is the co-fifth choice at 12-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Ive Struck a Nerve, the upset winner of the Risen Star, is 40-1 on Watchmaker’s line, with Risen Star runner-up Code West 30-1.
Violence was removed from the list after suffering a career-ending injury in the Fountain of Youth. He’s Had Enough was dropped after finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Fountain of Youth. Dynamic Sky also was bumped, though he did nothing wrong. He simply was the odd horse out to make room for the three newcomers.
ON THE BUBBLE
Treasury Bill continues to just miss the cut. Honorable Dillon and Tiz the Truth are also knocking on the door. The promising Titletown Five makes his first start of the year in the Gazebo Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn. Of the 12 horses entered in the Gotham at Aqueduct on Saturday, just two – Overanalyze and Vyjack – are in the top 20, so a win by anyone else could vault them onto the list.
So Vyjack to me seems to be the front runner for the Run for the Roses, but that most likely will all change after this weekend but for now Vyjack is my front runner.
Before Sat. races, the winner of the Derby looks like Orb and that depends on whether the middle of the track is fast. I'm looking at a mile in 1:33 flat and after that its Orb closing in the middle of a fast track, otherwise its one of the front runners winning.
Ask yourself who will run out front with Shanghai Bobby in the derby and holdup. I already saw the horse that will pass them. Front runners will be beat up by Bobby, who will set a very honest pace. I like three closers beating Bobby at the wire. Did not see a derby horse in the Risen Star, but Orb looked sharp defeating the unfortunate Violence. Just looks like a meltdown of early speed and the fun and frolics of 20 starters. . It will be my lucky day. Good luck to all and hopefully most will still be racing at the end of the year.
This is for Bruce, a sprinkle of Fairy dust, because Orb would have to have 10 fairy's carrying him to get the finish line first in a churchill maiden allowance, let alone the derby. Your prose is ok, but your prediction must be coming from a blind man with rose colored glasses. There are at least five horses aiming at the derby, that he won't get a sniff of at one and a quarter miles. He barely got past a three legged tired horse going a mile and a sixteenth, who was carrying five more pounds.
Took Code West in Derby Pool 1, and am glad I did. Yes he lost in the Risen Star. But I don't think he saw the other horse; he still had plenty in the tank; and looks like he wants distance. Plus, he descends on the sire line from Raise a Native. Only problem, Derby may be too short for him!
From a guy still trying to catch a winner, I would have to say that the horse I have been most impressed with on the Derby Trail so far is McGauhey's Fountain of Youth winner Orb. Yes I know he beat a horse with a broken pastern that pulled the pace along in 108 and a few ticks before yielding late but who is to say the Derby pace won't be equally crazy once again setting up a closing rally like his? Although he has yet to show us his best, anyone who has followed thoroughbred racing knows the tales of quickly improving three year olds come May. Some have suggested because he wasn't getting away from Violence until late in the race that he only won because of the pace scenario. I saw the race differently. No doubt he capitalized on the quick fractions of the race and that certainly is no fault of his but when asked by Velazquez approaching the quarter pole, I thought he really picked up the bit nicely and was gunning for something to run at. With a sixteenth left it was apparent he was in full flight for the wire and wasn't going to lose. Should he improve off of this race, I think perhaps the Janney and Phipps families will be celebrating in Louisville this Spring. There are still some big questions to be answered from the Verranzano camp and a few other legitimate horses but so far Orb is carrying my dreams. Good luck to all finding that special three year old the first Saturday in May.
For all you Dynamic Sky fans out there, do yourselves a large favor and start following another horse. Woodbine is my homebase, has been for years and I have been around and spoken with Mark Casse frequently. This colt looks and acts like an improving type but he continues to be more like a goofy kid apparently. His run in the Sam Davis probably looked better than it really was, unless you think Fallen Sky is a legitimate Derby contender also. Mark is a champion trainer in Canada due in part to the support of people like Mr. Oxley, Will Farrish and Gene Melnyk to name a few. He has a keen eye at the sales and can condition horses as well and probably better than 99% of his Canuck peers. He has won everything of importance north of the border and now finds himself in much deeper waters south of the Mason-Dixon line. This Sky Mesa colt Dynamic Sky is already a stakes winner in Canada but the competition he was beating is nothing like the horses he will have to beat to win the Derby. Tar and feather me if I'm all wrong on this but I am positive you won't see this guy in the winners circle at Churchill.
What race is Dynamic Sky pointed to?
I think Dynamic Sky is a wild card here. This is a horse REALLY flying under the radar. No one ever mentions him and that makes him extremely dangerous. He also gives an honest performance each time he runs and is exactly the type of horse that makes Derby pay outs how they are.
- 1.Posted 12/05/2013 01:44PM
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