04/24/2013 4:27PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 24

Tom Keyser
Titletown Five can assure a berth in the Kentucky Derby with a victory in the Derby Trial on Saturday.


Perhaps this headline should be "Who's lukewarm," because at this stage, everything is relative. The lone newcomer to this week's Derby Watch top 20 is Titletown Five, solely because if he wins the Derby Trial on Saturday, he would have enough points, and earnings in unrestricted stakes races, to run in the Kentucky Derby one week later. There are others in the Derby Trial for whom that may apply, too. Basically, the Derby Watch committee just needed to fill out the bottom slot in the top 20, and he was chosen. Reflecting the committee's level of enthusiasm, Titletown Five is 50-1 on the Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper.


With it looking increasingly likely that Tiz a Minister will run in the Snow Chief at Betfair Hollywood Park on Saturday, rather than hope to draw into the Derby field, he was removed from the top 20. In addition, owing to the compromised training schedule of late for Govenor Charlie, Watchmaker bumped him up to 20-1 from last week's 15-1.


This is the last Derby Watch top 20 for the year. Those who did not make the final cut included Winning Cause, who is 20th on the points list, but is extremely unlikely to run in the Derby, and Code West, currently 21st on the points list. The Derby Trial winner will have 20 points, and will rank above Code West in unrestricted earnings, so keep that in mind when poring over the points list and trying to figure out who could grab the coveted final spots in this Derby field.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Mark Kennedy More than 1 year ago
Terri Drennen More than 1 year ago
the funny thing about it all is it will probably be a winner that has not been mentioned. That's the way this particular race has been in the past several years. I am for Orb, I don't care what his time is, you have a large pack of horses and his trainer is a true pro at getting them ready and is training him at a mile and a half. Plenty of fuel in that tank and in that race, that's what is needed..JMHO
daniel More than 1 year ago
Titletown five should be in your exacta and trifecta boxes or part wheels.There ain't a cow in TeJas if he misses it.
Michael Lee More than 1 year ago
honestly this is a a 8 horse field with 12 also rans. whats the box on a 8 horse suprabox? It might be a bargain around 645 pm may 4th....
michael stapler More than 1 year ago
$1680 for a $1 An 8 horse is 7x6x5 x 8 = $1680 for $1
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Will Take Charge (will get a piece) or perhaps the whole pie! Lukas gives farewell lesson to all.
Ann Ferland More than 1 year ago
An Unbridled's Song who hasn't race for a couple of months. Following in the footsteps of Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, Buddha, Domestic Dispute, Dunkirk, Mission Impaible, and Songandaprayer, all classic candidates who either got hurt before the race or finished up the track on Derby Day. Watch his works carefully for any sign of lameness.
Javier Lopez More than 1 year ago
Golden Cents wants to win the Triple Crown! That's the Horst to Beat this Year!!!
Eric Lindemier More than 1 year ago
that's right
philcoforde More than 1 year ago
V-Zano's last work was SPLENDID...looked like he got the last Q in :23...LOOK OUT.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Phil the V, horse has never been pressed, pushed or even seen a whip, could be a scary horse along the lines of Spectacular Bid a speed horse that can go long.
Ann Ferland More than 1 year ago
Spectacular Bid was by a 10f horse, Bold Bidder, out of a mare by stamina influence Promised Land, one of the last of the great dirt distance horses, before they started dropping 12f+ dirt races like the Saratoga and Pimlico Cups. Verrazzano doesn't have a comparable background.
Nina Fields More than 1 year ago
How can anyone like Orb, can you justify how he could run two seconds slower than Dreaming of Julia ran an hour earlier on the same track. He is a plodder that will be lucky to finish in the top ten. Verrazano has never been asked for his best yet. He was coasting the last eighth in the Wood. He and Goldy will set an easy pace and than say catch us if you can.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
"...can you justify how he could run two seconds slower than Dreaming of Julia ran an hour earlier on the same track." Track cut between the two races. Good enough justification for such a startling disparity? That's up to the handicapper to decide. Either way, confusing track management.
ENAMMELD More than 1 year ago
I agree, no one likes a monster, spoils the race
Ann Ferland More than 1 year ago
Pace makes the race, The fractions in Julia's race were pretty much 2 seconds faster all the way around. A closer doesn't set the fractions, he just runs down the horses in front of him as fast as he can.
Pasquale More than 1 year ago
No Derby contender has run faster the last 3/8 of a mile that Verrazano. Providing the post position draw is kind, he's the obvious selection, a no brainer.
Micahdog More than 1 year ago
I believe you may want to look at Normandy Invasion (last 3/8th's 35.98) , Java's War (last 3/8th 35.76) and Tiz A Minister ( last 3/8ths 35.28 if you interpolate the 29.4 for last 2.5 furlongs). Not knocking Verranzano but hasn't displayed fastest last 3/8th as you suggest.
ENAMMELD More than 1 year ago
Why waste energy, He runs to win. In fact that's all he does.
Frankie Pasquale More than 1 year ago
hey pasquale antone who claims as you say a no brainer or a cinch don't know crap about horse racing from beesbestboy also known as fc pasquale the original pasquale
Sam Shelby More than 1 year ago
Orb wins. Everyone tries to make the Derby a wide open mystery affair. If he has not opened your eyes, your eyes are shut.
Jason Hart More than 1 year ago
Let me guess....... You had I'll Have Another last year at 15-1 right? Singled him I'm sure.
Ann Ferland More than 1 year ago
I'll Have Another should have been the favorite, based on the form. It shouldn't have been that much of a surprise to people. He's beaten Rousing Sermon by a pole, who had finished upsides of Take Charge Indy in Lousiana; he'd beaten Creative Cause who had beaten Bodemeister. Forget experts and tipsters. Look at the form and look at the horses.