04/13/2016 10:46AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 13

Shigeki Kikkawa
Exaggerator's victory in the Santa Anita Derby makes him the 8-1 second choice on the Derby Watch top 20.


My Man Sam, second in the Blue Grass Stakes, and Trojan Nation, second in the Wood Memorial, are the newest members of the Derby Watch top 20. Both earned 40 points last week and go onto a Derby Watch roster that increasingly must be driven by the points list. My Man Sam is a 20-1 shot on the future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Trojan Nation is a 50-1 shot on Watchmaker’s line. Exaggerator, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is now the second choice at 8-1 on Watchmaker’s line, down from 20-1 a week ago. Blue Grass winner Brody’s Cause is 15-1 after being 30-1 last week, and Wood Memorial winner Outwork is also 15-1. He was 20-1 last week.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: True to his nature, Lukas accentuates positive over pain


Matt King Coal and Zulu were dropped from the top 20 after performances in the Wood and Blue Grass, respectively, that removed them from Derby consideration. Danzing Candy, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, is now a 20-1 shot on Watchmaker’s line after being 12-1 a week ago. Shagaf, who suffered his first loss in the Wood, had his price raised to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1.



The Arkansas Derby, with 170 points available, represents the last, best chance for horses to earn sufficient points and make the Derby field. Creator, Dazzling Gem, and Suddenbreakingnews appear to be the main entrants who have the best chance to move into the top 20. With 100 points for first and 40 for second, the one-two finishers will have enough to get in.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays