04/12/2017 10:50AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 12

Coady Photography
Irap gets the first victory of his career in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.


Irap, the upset winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, is one of three newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. He is joined by Battle of Midway, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby, and Patch, who was second in the Louisiana Derby. All three are headed to the May 6 Kentucky Derby, and as that race draws closer, the top-20 list becomes increasingly driven by the points list. Battle of Midway is 15-1 on the future line of Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, with Irap at 20-1 and Patch at 30-1. There were a number of odds changes on Watchmaker’s line, most notably Always Dreaming now being the favorite at 5-1 after being 8-1 a week ago and Irish War Cry now the second choice at 6-1, down from last week’s 25-1, following his victory in the Wood Memorial. Battalion Runner, the Wood runner-up, is 15-1 after being 25-1 last week, and Gormley, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is also now 15-1 after being 30-1 last week.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | DERBY WATCH: Classic Empire down to his last chance


Cloud Computing, Iliad, and One Liner were dropped from the top 20, either owing to performance (Cloud Computing) or being taken off the Derby trail (Iliad and One Liner). McCraken, favored last week by Watchmaker at 6-1, is now the third choice at 8-1 after finishing third in the Blue Grass. Several others saw their odds raised, most notably Tapwrit, who was the co-third choice last week at 10-1 but is now 20-1 after finishing fifth in the Blue Grass.


The Arkansas Derby on Saturday will afford horses like Petrov and Sonneteer a final opportunity to earn enough points to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Also just missing the cut was Royal Mo, who sits just outside the top 20 on points but whose connections want to get into the race following his third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis