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Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 10
By Jay Privman
Overanalyze and Palace Malice, previous members of the Derby Watch top 20, have worked their way back onto the list and are joined by newcomer Rydilluc. All three are running in preps Saturday - Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, Palace Malice and Rydilluc in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Overanalyze is 25-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Palace Malice is 40-1 on Watchmaker's line, Rydilluc 50-1. Goldencents, who won the Santa Anita Derby last Saturday, is now the co-third choice on Watchmaker's line at 8-1 after being 40-1 a week ago. Normandy Invasion, the Wood Memorial runner-up, had his price cut in half, from 20-1 to 10-1.
Three horses were removed from the list - Flashback and Hear the Ghost, owing to injuries that took them off the Derby trail, and Power Broker following his lackluster comeback in the Santa Anita Derby. It would be stretching to say Verrazano is "not hot," considering he's favored on Watchmaker's line, but it should be noted that Watchmaker did raise his price to 5-1 from last week's 4-1 following his victory in the Wood.
ON THE BUBBLE
Balance the Books and Footbridge are among the Blue Grass contenders who could leap onto the top 20 with a one-two finish in that race. Falling Sky, a former resident of the top 20, will use the Arkansas Derby as his conduit to try and get back on the list.
- Jay Privman
The Expert Handicapper's are not Experts, at best they are 20%. I wonder how you get a job working for DRF. Some of the guys I enjoy a lot, and some I have no idea how hey landed at DRF. I love DRF as a whole. Keep up the good work. Always pick with you gut. Java's War is a Horse that con not have any trouble or have a horse stop in front of him. Not a good betting choice on that alone. KD there are 20 Horses.......
I got off Java War and went with Rydilluc in the Toyota Blue Grass after all of the hype by the Wise men & Women on TVG and HRTV. When am I going to resist listening to those talking heads!
Checkout DRF article on ORB's workouts on Sunday, April 14th! He's getting better and better! Yup, it will be a GOLDENCENTS - ORB exacta unless ORB has PP # 8. Then you can reverse that exacta!
Not one mention of Orb...I like him best.Looks like he will not be too far off the lead.Tracking 4-7 and closing like a freight train....
They also need to do something about trainers not having more than 1 horse in the derby. Every year Todd Pletcher puts in tons of horses and they all get scratched or hurt derby week - I never bet on his horses - Mike Repole and others need to look at his injury records.
This new point system is just what the Ky. Derby needed, it keeps out those horses that have no business running in the Derby that can't get the distance and it actually makes the trainers run their horses instead of hiding them in the barn just because they had enough $$$ won to get into the starting gate come the first Sat. In May. Example, Shanghi Bobby would have run in the Derby this year the way it use to be but now he is out due to distance limitations and that is what this point system is all about, he just could not run the longer distances therefore he could not earn enough points to get into the Derby. Finally something that works. Good looking out with this point system, now there will be true contenders in the starting gate come the first Sat. In May.
People, get off the filly competing in the KD band wagon and understand this. If the filly is good enough they can race in races like the Wood Memorial or the Florida Derby etc. There is nothing stopping owners/trainers from doing so. They are OPEN races. Thats where you get your Derby points. I didn't see any try. You must be competitive against the OPEN class to earn points. Open class does not include sprints, fillies only races. The points system is set up to award those that are in the best current form going a route distance. Merit Man tried the Florida Derby and fell short. I didn't see any fillies.
Say what you want about the colts headed (or should I say trying) to get into the Kentucky Derby, but realistically--the Kentucky Oaks is the real race, AGAIN, to watch. Too bad whoever dreamed up the new points system was such a male chauvinist...we probably won't see a filly in the Derby again unless the system is changed.
How Wongo can you be? KD is one of the hardest bets because of all the factors. 20 horses, huge crowd, bad starts, bad rides and miracle finishes. Best horse often doesn't win because something happens. A great example is Looking at Lucky running into fence and still got 4th. Or even not making the gate, Uncle Mo, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Eskendreya. Add a great card and pysched bettors. What is not to like other than the clueless firsttime bettors who have as much chance as I do by boxing their address. Good luck to all. Will be an awesome race.
The kd is not a business day for me. Just a relax and enjoy day. Fields are too big and the best horses doesnt win. To be honest, id rather bet a claiming race where I can find a single runner than bet the kd. Just saying. Just cause I may get 5-1 doesnt mean it justifys the risk of the derby.
- 1.Posted 12/11/2013 03:00PM
- 2.Posted 12/10/2013 02:23PM
- 3.Posted 12/10/2013 02:25PM
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- 5.Posted 12/10/2013 07:22PM