Kentucky Derby 2025: Journalism the mild favorite in early wagering, but price could shorten

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Journalism was the mild favorite Friday evening in early wagering on the Kentucky Derby.

With about $4.5 million in the pool, Journalism, who scored a smashing win making his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes and overcame trouble winning the Santa Anita Derby, was favored at 7-2. But will-pays for the Oaks-Derby double suggest Journalism will go to post a shorter price than that.

Good Cheer, the 6-5 favorite, won the Oaks early Friday evening, and the $1 double linking her with Journalism will pay $7.43. That’s less than half the price of the double coming back to Sovereignty, which, at $15.78, is the second-lowest payoff. Using the will-pays as a guide, Journalism looks more like a 5-2 shot, while Sovereignty comes out as the clear second choice. That stands in contrast to Friday night’s win pool, which had Sandman second choice at 9-2 and Sovereignty at 9-1.

The early win pool has one dramatic divergence from Oaks-Derby will-pays: The double coming back to Render Judgment pays $268.87, but Render Judgment was priced at 15-1 in Friday evening’s win pool. Another discrepancy: Baeza, at 18-1, was 10th choice in the win pool, but the double would pay $32.48 were he to win the Derby. That’s scarcely more than the will-pay to Sandman, who was roughly 3 1/2 times shorter than Baeza in the win pool.

The Japan-based Luxor Cafe was 11-1 in early win wagering, while Virginia Derby winner American Promise was 12-1 and Citizen Bull, Bob Baffert’s lone Derby starter after Rodriguez was scratched, was 14-1. That’s just shorter than the 15-1 on Final Gambit, who makes his dirt debut in the Derby and is trained by Brad Cox, winner of the Oaks with Good Cheer. Burnham Square, the Blue Grass winner, was 15-1 in the win pool, but all the horses in this range could switch positions by post time. The double to Burnham Square pays $37.56, making him a solid fifth choice in that pool. American Promise’s win odds, the will-pays say, could come close to doubling, and Final Gambit at some point will begin a steady drift upward.

In the Blue Grass, Burnham Square barely got up over East Avenue, who set a fast pace, but East Avenue was 36-1, twice Burnham Square’s price. East Avenue received considerably more support than that in the Oaks-Derby double and figures to go off closer to 20-1 than 40-1.

Kentucky Derby odds as of 7:45 p.m. Eastern on Friday, May 2, 2025

Pool: $4.55 million

1 – Citizen Bull, 14-1

2 – Neoequos, 49-1

3 – Final Gambit, 15-1

4 – Rodriguez, Scratched

5 – American Promise, 12-1

6 – Admire Daytona, 41-1

7 – Luxor Cafe, 11-1

8 – Journalism, 7-2

9 – Burnham Square, 15-1

10 – Grande, Scratched

11 – Flying Mohawk, 32-1

12 – East Avenue, 37-1

13 – Publisher, 28-1

14 – Tiztastic, 19-1

15 – Render Judgment, 15-1

16 – Coal Battle, 27-1

17 – Sandman, 9-2

18 – Sovereignty, 9-1

19 – Chunk of Gold, 28-1

20 – Owen Almighty, 40-1

21 – Baeza, 18-1

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