03/28/2012 2:07PM

Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot, who's not for March 28


With their lucrative victories over the weekend, both Daddy Nose Best, who won the Sunland Derby, and Went the Day Well, who captured the Spiral Stakes, muscled their way onto the Derby Watch top 20 this week. Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has Daddy Nose Best at 25-1 on his Kentucky Derby future line, with Went the Day Well at 30-1.

Castaway was dropped from the top 20 because of his poor performance in the Sunland Derby. To make room for both newcomers, Midnight Transfer also was dropped, solely because of his current position on the graded stakes earnings list. As the Derby draws closer, the Derby Watch top 20 must increasingly reflect the realities of how much graded cash is in the bank account of each contender.

News Pending, second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, gets another chance to move into the top 20 when he runs Saturday in the Florida Derby. Rousing Sermon can move back onto the list with a sharp performance Sunday in the Louisiana Derby. Both those races are worth $1 million. Optimizer, runner-up in the Rebel, also is poised to move onto the list. Also this weekend is the $2 million United Arab Emirates Derby, but that race is not expected to produce a Derby runner.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 contenders | Union Rags set for another step forward]

ron More than 1 year ago
Personally I'd appreciate a "Top 20" from the GS earnings list (not in order of money earned) .. as it is now .. mostly just a last out winner flux.. A "Top 20" .. from the GS earnings list by handicapping the winner .. is the reality .. unless or until they choose not to or can't run on the first Saturday in May ..?
David Sias More than 1 year ago
I can't figure why Lucky Chappy isn't in the top 20, especially now after Daddy Nose Best won again. On similar trips Chappy would have blown by him in the El Camino Real and that middle move was huge. Not to mention that he looks like a horse that will definitely be in the money this weekend in Dubai which puts him in a great spot.
Josh More than 1 year ago
Lucky Chappy is in the UAE derby and he is expected to run in the Kentucky derby.
Victor Seader More than 1 year ago
sure hope you are right......got him early at 200 - ==
David Sias More than 1 year ago
Whoa Victor, that's awesome, especially with that monster move he made last time out. That's the move that got me to bet Animal Kingdom last year. Good luck to you.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
I expect Midnight Transfer to place in the SA Derby, if he doesn't win it.
Dan Passero More than 1 year ago
He cant get the distrance, he was all out and fading in the san felipe closing into a torrid pace. I wish he could do it but its too far