Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot, who's not for March 21

WHO’S HOT
There were no changes to the list of 20 horses on this week’s Derby Watch, but there was some adjustment to their rankings. The unbeaten Gemologist, who returned with a sharp allowance victory last week at Gulfstream Park, is now the fifth choice at 10-1 on the Kentucky Derby Future Book line of Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, after being 20-1 a week ago.

WHO’S NOT
Sabercat remained on the list, despite his eighth-place finish in the Rebel, owing to the giant bankroll he accumulated last year, most notably by winning the Delta Downs Jackpot. Still, his performance caused Watchmaker to double his price to 50-1 after being 25-1 last week.

ON THE BUBBLE
Optimizer couldn’t quite crack into the top 20 following his runner-up effort in the Rebel, but he’s knocking on the door. There are no Derby Watch members in the Spiral Stakes on Saturday at Turfway, but the winner likely will be on the list next week, because the first-prize money in the Spiral pretty much guarantees a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. And if anyone other than Castaway – who already is in the top 20 – wins the Sunland Park Derby on Sunday, that horse also will make the list because of the windfall of cash.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 contenders | Motion, Team Valor follow familar path]