02/22/2012 4:15PM

Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 22

By Jay Privman
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WHO’S HOT

Bob Baffert, that’s who. He swept divisions of the Southwest Stakes on Monday with Castaway and Secret Circle, both of whom earned berths on the Derby Watch top 20 list this week as a result. Secret Circle ran the faster time, a large reason why Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has him at 20-1 on his future book line for the May 5 Kentucky Derby. Watchmaker made Castaway 30-1. Baffert also won the San Vicente with Drill, but since he is not being considered for the Derby, he was kept off the list.

WHO’S NOT

Junebugred, who was well beaten in his division of the Southwest, was dropped from the list for performance reasons. Also dropped was Midnight Transfer, though he did nothing wrong. He simply became the odd horse out to make room for the Baffert duo. Creative Cause saw his price raised by Watchmaker to 15-1 from last week’s 12-1 following his third-place finish in the San Vicente. Gemologist also floated up, to 20-1 from 15-1, and Take Charge Indy is 40-1 after being 30-1 a week ago.

ON THE BUBBLE

Daddy Nose Best won the El Camino Real Derby last Saturday, but still needs to prove himself on dirt. Scatman was a close second to Secret Circle in the faster division of the Southwest. The filly On Fire Baby is still under consideration for the Derby, and since graded stakes earnings for the Derby allow for races restricted to females, she has a good head start in the piggy bank if her connections ultimately choose the Derby.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 contenders | Pletcher's turn to show off his talent]