02/15/2012 3:05PM

Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 15

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Benoit & Associates
Bodemeister is on the bubble for the Derby Watch top 20.

WHO’S HOT

Last week, the only horse trainer Bob Baffert had in the Derby Watch top 20, Liaison, didn’t even cross the line with his rider in his most recent race. Things have changed quite a bit. Fed Biz roared onto top 20 with his powerful allowance victory last week, and so impressed Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, that he has him pegged at 15-1 on his future line, making Fed Biz the co-fifth choice for the May 5 Kentucky Derby. El Padrino is down to 12-1 on Watchmaker’s line, making him the co-third choice with Creative Cause, who is scheduled to make his 2012 debut Sunday in the San Vicente at Santa Anita.

WHO’S NOT

To make room for Fed Biz, Ever So Lucky was bounced from the top 20. He was scratched from the Hutcheson last weekend at Gulfsteam and is not scheduled to race now until next month’s Swale. Considering that, and the circumspect nature of his connections regarding making the Derby, his chances of being in the Derby are remote. Juvenile champ Hansen, the third choice last week at 10-1, is now the co-fifth choice on Watchmaker’s line at 15-1.

ON THE BUBBLE

Baffert sent out Bodemeister, named for his son, to a romping maiden victory last weekend at Santa Anita. The Southwest on Monday at Oaklawn could be split into two divisions, which would give a number of prospects the opportunity to prove their worth, most notably Cyber Secret, who comes off a runaway allowance victory in his last start.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 contenders | Whiting back with another shot 20 years after win]