07/10/2012 12:47PM

Hollywood Park: Pick six carryover sequence tough puzzle for handicappers

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INGLEWOOD, Calif. – A tricky pick six Thursday at Betfair Hollywood Park begins with a carryover of $111,858, and though most fields are small, the sequence is far from easy. It lacks an obvious single and is filled with potentially vulnerable favorites.

The lowest-level race in the pick six (races 3-8) may include the most probable winner – Three Buttons Down, a $20,000 maiden claimer in race 4. One race later, Antidote is favored in race 5, though he already has lost 10 straight at the first allowance condition.

By the time a large field of 2-year-old maidens races six furlongs on turf in race 8, the final leg, bettors are expected to have wagered another $500,000 into the pool. Below is a look at the sequence.

Race 3 is a $25,000 claimer for nonwinners of two, at a mile on turf. The Unusual One is favored, despite no works since his most recent start June 17.

“He’s been galloping every day, and he’s fit enough to win,” trainer Barry Abrams said.

He also is good enough based on recent close finishes in an unrestricted claimer and statebred allowance races.

The Unusual One was stabled at Hollywood Park with Abrams associate Richard Baltas until two weeks ago, when Abrams brought him to Santa Anita to prepare for a race at Del Mar. However, the first Del Mar condition book did not include a suitable spot for The Unusual One, so he entered Thursday.

“He should beat those horses,” Abrams said.

Skeptical pick six bettors will be tempted to “double” the race by including K Js Maddog. He broke slowly in his most recent start, steadied into the first turn, fell 22 lengths behind, and rallied to fifth, missing by 7 1/2 lengths in the subsequently productive race – the first- and third-place finishers already returned to win.

Race 4, a $30,000 maiden claimer at six furlongs, offers a potential single in Three Buttons Down. He was making the second start of his career last time, got bogged in traffic much of the race, and finished a better-than-looked third. He figures to benefit Thursday from the additional half-furlong.

The possible pacesetter is Et Tu Walker, who set a fast pace last time at seven furlongs, held a three-length lead at the eighth pole, and then tired to fourth. Claimed for $20,000 by Doug O’Neill from John Sadler, Et Tu Walker is a front-running threat turning back to six furlongs.

Race 5 is a first-level allowance at a mile on turf, and Antidote figures for a good trip behind stretch-out sprinter The Whammer.

However, Antidote has lost 10 consecutive first-level allowance races, four times as the favorite, and is tough to trust. Late-runners Robbie’s War, Arraignment, and Tropical Heat will rally.

Race 6 is an inscrutable route for older special-weight maidens at 1 1/16 miles on Cushion Track. Contenders include Stars and Moons, Fable Haven, Majestic Moment, Anabaa Premium, and Money Talker.

Race 7 is a first-level optional $25,000 claiming turf sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. Ms. G.I. Jane should get a better pace scenario than last out. Church Avenue figures close, along with pace-pressers Tasty Treat and Goldentouch of Gin.

Race 8 is a turf sprint for 2-year-old maidens that Bugsy Losty could upset. He finished strongly in his debut for a $40,000 claim tag and benefits from the longer distance. Miceli has a good third over the turf course, while Londinium is another live 2-year-old first-time starter trained by Peter Miller.

 

Anonymous More than 1 year ago
BRAD FREE: Thanks for the Barry Abrams quotes. Trainers don't always tell it like it is but in this case his comments were so frank and certain that it was enough to cement a standout to single status.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
I just KNOW a couple of you had to hit that. My key horses didn't fire, I spread in the wrong race myself. But I should have hit it myself seeing as how the race I missed I still hit the EX. Bad betting. Congratulations to the winners. May not have been a huge hit but it was prettye nice for a field of chalk.
Dawood K More than 1 year ago
Any one wanna go half's on this ticket ? 2 3 4 5 6 7 / 1 2 3 6 7 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / 1 2 4 5 6 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / 1 3 4 5 8 / $ 36,750 will be your share I will be at the Meydan in Dubai UAE.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
paying for that ticket means you will lose for it wont pay as much as you invested and certainly no handicapping skills involved,,
Dawood K More than 1 year ago
Todd, love to hear how you would play this card today. Don,t give me a 32, 48, 96, 144, 288, or a 576 $ bet Instead make me out a 1000 $ ticket I bet you must be a goot handicapper I shall get back to you on this page later I am 11 hrs ahead of you guy Thanks.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
THIRD RACE...UNUSUAL ONE... FOURTH RACE...THREE BUTTONS DOWN...ET TU WALKER...HIDDEN QUEST..CELTIC DRAMA FIFTH RACE..ANTIDOTE..ROBBIES WAR,,ARRAINGMENT.. SIXTH RACE..MAJESTIC MOMENT..STARS AND MOONS,,ANBAA PREMIUM...MONEY TALKER,,FABLE HAVEN SEVENTH RACE..,,TASTY TREAT..LUCKYVIC..,GOLDEN TUCH OF VIC..SAANEEN EIGHTH RACE...DR. SPIN,MICELLI $960 DOLLAR TICKET,,GOOD LUCK DAWOOD
Dawood K More than 1 year ago
Todd, I will post my 2 horses which you dont have just after the 3rd race, keep in touch.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
this ticket won,,pick six only paid $1500 plus, not including the fives
Del Crone More than 1 year ago
Here goes a $2 Pick Six 4/5/3,4/5/6/3,8 (I'll buy 5 tickets at $8 each times and see how it goes) My guess is it pays $1000 a ticket. 4 Singles :)
Charley More than 1 year ago
No pick-6 is easy even with short fields.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
there are singles in this pick six and its not a hard one to hit at all, i will hit it for $96 dollars and it looks like it may pay $10,000 fo the many others who will also..
MGropenSDREADER More than 1 year ago
Fair enough--post your ticket(s) now!
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
i wish i could,,but you and I both know it will hurt my return..thanks
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
I won't even ask that you post your whole ticket, Todd. Give me ONE of your singles (provided it's not Unusual One) and I'll give you mine- a 6-1 ML.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
FOR PICK SIX MONEY,,BET TITIAN IN THE FIRST,,its a $8000 claimer but the rest are $1000 dollar horses,,then you will have money to play the pick six ANTIIDOTE IN THE SIXTH RACE,,SINGLE DR. SPIN AND MICELLI IN THE EIGHTH UNUSUAL ONE,,BY FOREIT IN THE THIRD after that,,there really are only three to four horses in the other races that can run...good luck
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Okay- Since you showed some guts with (albeit non-single) Dr. Spin (one of two Drysdale charges in the race and likely the higher priced; Drysdale doesn't often win with first timers but just try telling Achilles that) I'll give you mine: Fabled Haven. Vann will have him cranked and ready to go. Antidote figures big but I'm using Arraignment as well in that race, tough right back vs. these.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
fabled haven is a late running sprinter and is not a distance horse and being a washington bred against these puts him up against it..good luck to you however and thanks for the response.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Titian won like a good thing. Short odds for sure, but a prompt favorite for the chalk players. Good pick 5 single, Todd. Always fun to be able to extend your P4 to a P5 without spending a penny more. Gives the bettor the luxury of saving money by skipping the 4.
kevin More than 1 year ago
church avenue single in race 7
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
good luck,,church avenue wil not win,,the rail horse alone will beat it
MGropenSDREADER More than 1 year ago
I agree; there's too much other speed. Look for a closer, e.g., Saanneen or Ms. G.I Jane. If a front-runner wins, it's most likely the aforementioned #1.
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
sannean has back class and if she can walk, she can win,,the rail horse is much improved on the turf and loves the course..good luck
Todd Elliot More than 1 year ago
good handicapping mgropen