10/03/2014 1:06PM

DRF Breeding pedigree analysis: Wet track could be a factor at Belmont

Tom Keyser
Condo Commando, who won the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes in the slop, is among the favorites in the Frizette.

Two major prep races for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies will be contested on Saturday at Belmont Park. The Grade 1 Champagne and Frizette Stakes – each contested at a one-turn mile - have compact, but competitive fields. With a forecast that calls for a 90 percent chance of rain in the area on Saturday, handicappers will need to pay particular consideration to the variables of added distance and off-track aptitude when examining the contenders’ past performances and pedigrees.

In the Champagne, morning-line favorite Daredevil stands out as the best-bred of the six contenders, and he already owns a front-running win in a six-furlong maiden on a muddy track Sept. 13 at Belmont. The More Than Ready colt is out of the Forty Niner mare Chasethewildwind, whose longest score came at 6 1/2 furlongs. Chasethewildwind is the dam of six winners from as many starters, led by $1.3 million earner Albertus Maximus, now a young stallion. That Albert the Great horse won the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at nine furlongs on dirt at Gulfstream in 2009 and the then-ungraded Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile over Santa Anita’s synthetic main track in 2008. Another of Chasethewildwind’s foals, Chasethegold, owns a win at 1 1/16 miles on turf and placed in the 6 1/2-furlong Grade 3 Ken Maddy Handicap, also on turf.

Daredevil’s second dam, Race the Wild Wind, by Sunny’s Halo, won the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 Santa Maria Handicap in her final start in 1993, and also took the Grade 2 Fantasy and Princess Stakes at the same distance earlier in her career. That mare is the dam of King Charlemagne, a Group 1-winning sprinter in France, and Meshaheer, a Group 3 winning sprinter in England. Grade 1 Forego Stakes winner Here Comes Ben is from this family.

El Kabeir and Upstart also figure to receive a lot of attention at the betting windows based on their eye-catching performances at Saratoga. Both are the first runners out of their respective dams. El Kabeir, by Scat Daddy, is out of the unraced Unbridled’s Song mare Great Venue. That mare is a half-sister to four stakes winners, three of them based in Ohio. The other is multiple Grade 2 winner and $500,000 earner Too Much Bling. That horse won the seven-furlong Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct by nine lengths in the slop.

Upstart ‘s dam Party Silks, by Touch Gold, is also unraced. She is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Josh’s Madelyn and to eight other winners. Josh’s Madelyn won the Grade 2, seven-furlong Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland on a muddy track and placed twice in 1 1/16-mile stakes.

The Truth or Else, by Yes It’s True, is a longshot possibility based on his maiden win at Belmont on Sept. 12 over the same one-turn mile and also on his pedigree. Dam Lakenheath, by Colonial Affair, earned over $560,000. She won the Grade 3 Arlington Matron at 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track in 2002 and placed in the same event in 2001 and 2003. She and has produced three other winners at 1 1/16 miles, including stakes-placed Fighter Wing.

Frizette Stakes: Favorites have wet-track backgrounds

The Frizette field of seven fillies has several well-bred entrants, with the top three betting choices on the morning line all sporting quality pedigrees. Condo Commando won both of her starts at Saratoga in dominant fashion, including the Grade 1 Spinaway in the slop. The Tiz Wonderful filly is out of $835,000 earner and Grade 2 winner Yearly Report, by General Meeting. The mare, who won the 1 1/8 mile Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan and the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Delaware Oaks, has produced three other winners, including Grade 2-placed sprinter Checklist and a steeplechase horse.

Stonestreet Stables’s Cavorting, a daughter of classic winner Bernardini, is out of $678,000 earner Promenade Girl, by Carson City. The mare won five stakes in her career, maxing out at 1 1/8 miles, and was 3 for 4 on off tracks, including a win in the Grade 2, 1 1/16-mile Molly Pitcher Breeders’ Cup Handicap at Monmouth.  Second dam Promenade Colony is a full sister to Grade 1 winners Another Review and No Review – both route horses – and Grade 2 winner Dance Colony.

Feathered is another well-bred filly from a very accomplished extended family. The daughter of Indian Charlie is out of the Dynaformer mare Receipt, who won at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Second dam Finder’s Fee won the Grade 1 Acorn and Matron Stakes, both at a mile, and third dam Fantastic Find won the Grade 1 Hampstead Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track. This is the family of graded stakes-winning turf and dirt router Optimizer, due to start Saturday at Keeneland in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

Among the longshots, Ring Knocker, still a maiden, is worth a look. The daughter of Belmont and Travers winner Birdstone is out of the route turf winner Pearls, by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Black Tie Affair. Her second dam is stakes winner Mosquera, by Faraway Son, who ran well at distances up to 1 1/16 miles. Mosquera is the dam of Grade 2 winner Bank Audit and five other winners in addition to Pearls, including $100,000 earners Whistler Run and Lake Shore View.