Derby Watch: Justify, Magnum Moon latest to try to match Apollo's feat

ARCADIA, Calif. – As training hours wound down Sunday morning at Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert turned to a few visitors and said, “I’ve got big plans for that colt this afternoon.”

A few hours later, Justify turned in the most impressive debut effort among 3-year-olds this year, crushing maidens while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 104, a performance strong enough to put him into this week’s Derby Watch top 20.

The big plans for Justify include the biggest of all – trying to win the Kentucky Derby on May 5. He has time for two more starts between now and then, the first of which could be the Sunland Derby on March 25.

If successful, Justify would clear the tallest Derby hurdle of all, winning the race without having started at 2. That feat has not been accomplished since 1882, when Apollo won the eighth Run for the Roses. The Derby has been run 135 times since then.

Outstanding runners such as Curlin and Pulpit are among those of recent vintage who couldn’t do it. Bodemeister came the closest of anyone, falling 1 1/2 lengths short when second to I’ll Have Another in the 2012 Derby.

Since 1937, there have been 61 horses who made it to the Derby without a start at 2. Three finished second, and five – including Curlin in 2007 and Battle of Midway last year – were third, while 53 finished out of the money.

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Those potentially trying to end the streak this year include Justify and Magnum Moon, who won for the second time when capturing an allowance race last week at Tampa Bay Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher. Both are members of the Derby Watch top 20.

There is plenty of history against them, but the changing nature of the sport has made this feat seem more attainable. Horses have fewer and fewer starts prior to the Derby than decades ago, so the contrast in experience is not as stark.

Still, it is obviously asking a lot for a horse to go from an unstarted maiden at the beginning of the year – or Jan. 13 in the case of Magnum Moon, or Feb. 18 in the case of Justify – and win the Derby on the first Saturday in May.

“I think it will happen someday,” Pletcher said Wednesday by phone from Palm Beach Downs in Florida, where Magnum Moon is based. “We’ve seen a number of Derby trends end, in terms of experience, numbers of starts, time between the last start and the Derby. This will end, too.

“First and foremost, you need a horse with exceptional talent. I was impressed with Magnum Moon’s last race. It was his second start, first time going two turns, and he relaxed. Luis Saez gave him a good education – taking dirt, then being produced for the last quarter-mile. It was everything we were hoping for.”

Pletcher said that Magnum Moon – a son of Malibu Moon, like 2013 Derby winner Orb – would make his next start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17 at Oaklawn Park, and assuming that went well, he envisioned running in the Arkansas Derby on April 14 prior to the Kentucky Derby.

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Justify, a son of Scat Daddy, had a belated racing debut owing to a setback in training at age 2 while getting his early lessons at the farm of his co-owner, WinStar Farm.

“He pulled something behind breezing and needed 30 to 60 days off,” Elliott Walden, the president and chief executive of WinStar, said in a phone interview Tuesday.

Justify returned to training at WinStar under the direction of farm trainer Richard Budge, then got some racetrack experience last fall at Keeneland with trainer Rodolphe Brisset, the former assistant to Bill Mott who has horses for WinStar.

“He looked after him for us at Keeneland,” Walden said. “We sent him there to get some education. It was always understood he’d keep some horses for us and other horses would go out to other trainers.”

Walden said Justify, who was purchased as a yearling, was ticketed for Baffert long ago. “You just kind of get a feel, look at different parameters,” Walden said. “How do they get over the track? We thought he’d like a hard and fast track.”

After initially training in Southern California with Baffert’s string at Los Alamitos, Justify came to Santa Anita midway through January for his final three workouts.

“Bob had told me he could really run,” Walden said.

Now, he’ll try to run for the roses.

In other Derby developments:

◗ John Velazquez will ride Vino Rosso in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10, forgoing, for that day, the mount on male turf champ World Approval in the Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita. Flavien Prat will sub.

◗ Robby Albarado is back on Free Drop Billy for the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 3 at Gulfstream Park, trainer Dale Romans said. Saez, who rode Free Drop Billy last time out in the Holy Bull, will ride the unbeaten Strike Power in the Fountain of Youth for trainer Mark Hennig.

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