07/20/2013 10:38AM

Del Mar: Sunday Graded Stakes Analysis from Brad Free


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G2 San Clemente

1-Wishing Gate


3-Unusual Way

Analysis: The improving Arlington Park shipper WISHING GATE might be better than modest recent speed figures suggest. She can upset this turf stakes for 3-year-old fillies. ’GATE won a maiden race on the DMR turf last year at 2, and improved each start of her current campaign including a better-than-looked allowance win last out in which she overcame a slow pace and ran away late. It was another forward move by the well-bred filly (sired by Indian Charlie, produced by turf GSW winner Rich in Spirit). Facing a modest field of locals, ’GATE can post an upset for the productive trainer-jockey team of Tom Proctor and Gary Stevens. Proctor and Stevens are 4-for-5 in July; 9-for-32 this year.

IOTAPA, runner-up in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks and G2 Hollywood Oaks, is the “class” of the field. However, she is not bred for turf. Her sire Afleet Alex gets 9 percent turf winners. UNUSUAL WAY has been running well in minor stakes including a $100k win last out at GG.

FOXY BOSS finished clear of third last time in a “live” N1X vs. older.

Betting strategy: At 6-1 on the (pre-scratch) morning line, WISHING GATE is worth an old-school win bet. If she drops below 4-1, it’s a pass. And if likely favorite Iotapa is bet below her 3-1 pre-scratch line, then an exacta taking a stand her could mushroom the payoffs. The main recommendation is a win bet on WISHING GATE. A second recommendation (for one-quarter the size of the win bet) is a partial exacta WISHING GATE over UNUSUAL WAY and FOXY BOSS.


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