07/26/2013 9:14AM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis July 27, 2013

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Brad Free’s Analysis [BEST BET: Doinghardtimeagain, 4th Race)]

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1 LILLY'S PERFECT was claimed from a highly rated (84 Beyer) win that was validated when runner-up Prettypriceygirl returned to win her next start. 'PERFECT returns at the same $25k level with two sharp works since claimed. Seems like a logical choice, although ROMANTIC WISH may offer greater wagering value. The latter misfired in the race won by the top choice, but 'WISH was claimed from that race by Bill Spawr and has a terrific record on Polytrack. Two starts here last summer produced one win, one second vs. N1X foes. SKINNY GENES returns from Golden Gate, adds blinkers, and makes her first start for trainer Peter Miller. INNER GROOVE is 2-for-2 on this track and could be the speed of the field. Closer Looks >>
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2 Second-time starter AMERICAN PRIDE is the one to catch in this sprint for 2-year-old maidens. He dueled through a fast pace and tired to fourth in his debut two weeks ago. He has a sharp gate work since, and can be long gone. The knock is price, again. He started at even-money in his debut, and could be short here. LITTLE SHACK makes his debut with a solid workout pattern. He is the second local starter by new stallion Denis of Cork. The other was Celtic Moon, third in his debut before winning second time out. BOND HOLDER had trouble and finished a creditable fifth in his career debut in the G3 Hollywood Juvenile. He drops into a maiden race and should improve second time out. FOREVER JUANITO broke slow from the rail but finished a close third in his debut. He also can move forward second out. Closer Looks >>
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3 The comeback by SCARY FAST was good. Making her first start in more than a year, she chased a fast pace and missed by a neck. This is her second start back, at the same maiden-20 level. She only needs slight improvement. U R MY CANDY GIRL finished second as the odds-on favorite last time, and was claimed by Bill Morey. She is not quick, but she will be grinding late. SECRET MEMO misfired in her comeback after being forced wide into the turn. She makes her second start back, and ran well on this track last summer. This is kind of a weak race, actually. Closer Looks >>
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4 DOINGHARDTIMEAGAIN is the class of the field in sprint stakes for California-bred fillies. She won her third straight last out in the G2 Hollywood Oaks, trained well since including a bullet three-furlong drill on the DMR track early this week. She has enough speed to keep her main rival in her sights. That is speedster SWEET MARINI, who is likely to set the pace. 'MARINI finished behind the top choice both times they met, albeit under extenuating circumstances. The first time 'MARINI broke slow from an inside post and never got going. The second was in a route race. 'MARINI is best as a sprinter, quick enough to make the lead, and could get brave. WARREN'S VENEDA disappointed last time in a turf route at GG, but shortens to a sprint and will roll late as the potential upsetter. She won her only sprint despite encountering tons of trouble. Closer Looks >>
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5 Second start back and dropping for the first time to the bottom ($16k claiming, non-winners two races), TWITCH is in the right spot. Her recent comeback was a respectable fourth-place finish, she ran well on this racetrack in her career debut two summers ago (fifth with trouble). SPLENDIFEROUS MOON has never raced at this low level, nor tried a surface other than dirt. A new face in a weak race, she fits. NOW HOPE gained a confidence-building win last out in a maiden-25 at Pleasanton, although she beat a soft field. The runner-up in that race is 0-for-17. BAS got away with an easy pace and cruised over maiden-claimers. Seems unlikely she will get the same slow-pace trip here. Closer Looks >>
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6 First-time starter MAGIC DADDY has trained like a colt that can fire first out for Bob Baffert. The 3-year-old son of Scat Daddy (13 percent debut winners) is the first starter from an unraced sister to graded sprint winner J P's Gusto. 'DADDY figures to have speed. His main rival is stablemate QUALITY PLAN, who set/pressed solid fractions in both starts around two turns, and faded both times. He should appreciate the cutback to a sprint. CHIEF LION is a son of dynamite debut sire Wildcat Heir, whose progeny win 16 percent first out. Sharp-looking works correspond to his pedigree. SWEET SUNSHINE and CARRYTHETEAM are John Sadler-trained first-time starters sired by Candy Ride. Both might be ranked too low. Closer Looks >>
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7 TOM'S TRIBUTE is being asked a lot in this N1X turf route. An impressive and highly rated (99 Beyer) maiden winner last out in a sprint at BHP, he now steps up to face winners, while stretching to two turns and switching to grass. He might be up the challenges. He was well-regarded into his career debut (fourth), then improved next out winning a fast sprint. A son of Lion Heart from a sprint dam, TOM'S TRIBUTE is not bred for a turf route, but this race was always the objective after his maiden win. Good class/distance/surface test for a good colt. SOMETHINGS UNUSUAL has several attributes that the top choice lacks including established surface/distance form, as well as a last-out allowance win vs. California-breds. He will motor from the back of the field. AMERICAN TANKER looms the upsetter. He finished fifth in his comeback at BHP, and makes his second start back over a turf course on which he scored last summer at 11-1. Closer Looks >>
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8 PAYNTER returned from a long layoff with a smashing allowance-race comeback win (114 Beyer) that suggests he will be one of the top older horses in California this year. Runner-up by a neck last year in the Belmont and winner of the Haskell, he is something special. CLUBHOUSE RIDE tossed in a rare clunker in the Hollywood Gold Cup, a distant fourth without a visible alibi. His sharp win two starts back in the Californian makes him a logical contender. LIAISON has been freshened nearly two months after misfiring in the Californian. He is a good horse when he shows up, which is not always. KETTLE CORN entered the Cougar II on Friday, which seems like a better spot. Swaps winner CHIEF HAVOC is an improving 3-year-old facing older winners for the first time. Closer Looks >>
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9 MAYAN EYES is a better horse since being gelded prior to his May 30 comeback. He won that race by five lengths, but in his first try vs. winners he stumbled badly and lost all chance as the 2-1 favorite. He merits another chance, at the same restricted $16k claiming level. With a clean start, he can pace-press his way to victory. Two main rivals are comeback droppers racing in a claiming race for the first time. SEVEN BRIDGES, off since March, has good back figures and proven form last summer on Polytrack. LIFE A RILEY also ran well here last summer. This is his first start since October. Closer Looks >>
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10 WINNING RHYTHM got no help up front last time, and ran as well as she could. The winner raced gate to wire, while 'RHYTHM rallied from far back to finish second. If the DMR turf course continues to play fair (emphasis on late speed), the improving filly can win from the back. ICONIC SPIRIT finished second in four successive special-weight dirt races before taking a break. She has turf influence in her pedigree, and a closing style that should play well. LAKE MARACAIBO has been favored all five starts including four runner-up finishes. First start since May, she must break from the far outside. Closer Looks >>
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