07/24/2013 10:04AM

Del Mar: Brad Free's Analysis July 25, 2013

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Brad Free's Analysis [BEST BET: Dancing Lute, 1st Race)]

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1 Northern California shipper DANCING LUTE is the horse to beat in this $12.5k claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Her up-front style was highly effective the first week of the meet; she beat a good field last out at Pleasanton. The runner-up returned to finish third; the third-place finisher returned to win. 'LUTE was claimed off her win by Bill Morey and can be gone out front. EGYPTIAN FEMME drops, adds blinkers, and switches to speed rider Edwin Maldonado. She should be forwardly placed. ACUTE makes her first start since May for a productive trainer-jockey combo. The past two years, Mike Mitchell and son-in-law Julien Leparoux won 19 of 83 while producing a flat-bet profit.
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2 L T RECKLESS set a fast pace and finished third in a promising debut early this month. With a race under her belt, the Doug O'Neill-trained Henny Hughes filly can be gone. But she faces a pair of promising 2-year-old fillies trained by Bob Baffert. Those are first-time starters CADRON and EXOTIC BEHAVIOR. A series of fast works by CADRON suggests the Broken Vow filly is quick. Her dam produced one previous runner that won first out (Brown Eyes Blue). EXOTIC BEHAVIOR is a Giant's Causeway filly and a sibling to the G1-winning sprinter Bustin Stones. First-time starter MISS LAFAYETTE is trained by Craig Dollase, whose first-timers have been firing all year. Her workouts look solid, although first-time starters sired by Midnight Lute do not win often first time out (8 percent). Closer Looks >>
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3 LIL BIT O'FUN takes a major drop from N3X to $40k claiming for a productive trainer-jockey team. A veteran late-runner, the gelding's closing style was the most effective style opening week. Tom Proctor and jockey Gary Stevens are 5-for-8 the month of July. SEBASTIAN FLYTE scored a sharp comeback win at Golden Gate, and returns to the DMR course on which he won his U.S. debut two years ago. The back-class, Grade 1-placed veteran will be flying late. DEPUTIFORMER has won 5 of 8 this year, albeit against easier at Lone Star. The gelding was claimed last summer at Del Mar for $8k by trainer Dallas Keen. Since then, he has earned $61,826. FACOLTOSO will try to steal it. That style was ineffective opening week of the meet. None of the 13 turf routes were won by the pacesetter. Closer Looks >>
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4 After a series of creditable efforts against better, AFFLICATION drops to the bottom level (maiden-20). He has more speed than his main rivals also dropping in class. MOJAVE DESERT adds blinkers, switches to the main track, and drops from special-weight. CHOCOLATIER finished nowhere his first two starts, and also drops from special-weight. SENOR SNICKERS goes long and adds blinkers second time out. PUBLIC DEFENDER is improving each start. He finished third both starts against similar at Betfair Hollywood Park. Closer Looks >>
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5 Only two of the 10 starters in this restricted (N2L) $16k claiming race have not already lost at this class level. SATURDAY NITE WISH finished second last time in a restricted $25k claimer, and was claimed by Ted H. West. The knock is she drops in class following a good race, first off the claim. Comebacker JANIE GIRL looms the upsetter in her first start since October. She won a comeback on this racetrack last summer, and returns at the bottom level. SUGAR SPICE is a fast-working comeback with a series of bullets drills. She will lead as far as she can.
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6 In the first marathon turf race of summer, DANDEREK is the one to catch. Claimed for $25k early last month by Jerry Hollendorfer, the gelding returns in an allowance from which he cannot be claimed. That is a sign of optimism by his connections; the veteran should be loose on the lead. Come and catch him. The knock is that not a single turf route opening week was won by the pacesetter. LUMBERYARD JACK faced tougher this spring at BHP, and drops to N1X/$40k claiming while returning to the course on which he scored an upset last summer. IRISH SURF has been slow to develop, but looked good drilling maidens by more than three lengths last out in his first with blinkers. It was his eighth start; he fits with these winners. BENCH LIGHTS and KID DREAMS have both run races that put them close. Closer Looks >>
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7 This allowance sprint is likely to unfold at a tepid pace, which plays in favor of the pressing style of CASTAWAY. There isn't any other true speed in this field; CASTAWAY could be loose out front. CHILOQUIN sometimes has speed, other times no speed. What he does possess is a will to win. He is 6-for-21, with 5 runner-up finishes. A close third last out in a turf sprint, he won twice on this main track two summers ago. KATE'S EVENT will pick them up late, though the pace scenario and early-season track profile works against his style. ISN'T HE CLEVER set the pace in recent routes at Sunray Park and Lone Star. He is a 7-for-15 win machine. Closer Looks >>
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8 Well-bred second-start filly PATRIOT C H is worth a gamble stretching out, despite a dull fifth-place sprint debut. She is trained by Carla Gaines, whose second-start maidens have a long history of improving. Bred to run long, the filly is a sibling to graded stakes winner Lucky J H, who improved 31 Beyer points romping in a DMR maiden race second out for Gaines nine years ago. Tab for an upset. STELLAR ATMOSPHERE could be the one to catch. She pulled hard and split the field in her first try running long last month. Second time long, expect jockey Edwin Maldonado to let her roll. ITSABEAUTIFULDAY broke slowly both starts at BHP. She might be better than her first two starts suggest. Closer Looks >>
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