03/28/2011 2:03PM

Decisive Moment

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Date Track Race Finish Chart Distance Time BSF Video
3/26/11 TP Spiral 2nd 1 1/8 Mile 1:52.20 87 Video
2/19/11 FG Risen Star 5th 1 1/16 mile 1:43.80 85 Video
11/20/10 DED Delta Downs Jackpot 2nd 1 1/8 Mile 1:52.20 89 Video

Decisive Moment

Owner: Just for Fun Stable
Trainer: Juan Arias
Record: 8-2-2-3
Best Beyer: 91
Breeder: Just For Fun Stables
Tomlinson Distance Rating: 242

Auction: $70,000 RNA juvenile (OBS Spring, April 2010)
Dosage Profile: 3-2-9-0-0 (14)
Dosage Index: 2.11
Center of Distribution: 0.57

Decisive Moment
Decisive Moment

PROFILE

By Ron Gierkink

Strengths
This versatile Florida-bred has been pretty consistent, and he doesn’t have to take his racetrack with him. He can handle a muddy track, as evidenced by his half-mile breeze in a bullet 47.40 seconds on April 17 at Churchill, and it’s nice to see that he arrived in Louisville well before the big dance. His last performance in the Grade 3 Spiral at Turfway was solid, and going from Polytrack to dirt is an angle that might be to his benefit on the first Saturday in May.

Weaknesses
He hasn’t won a graded stakes. He has cracked 90 on the Beyer Figure scale only once, which was when he notched his only stakes victory in the one-mile Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs with a 91 Beyer. The homebred has done his optimum running on the lead, and the pace figures to be hot in the Kentucky Derby. His sire, With Distinction, was definitely at his best sprinting, and this colt doesn’t have 1 1/4-mile pedigree on the dam’s side, either.

Betting Value
The fact that he has low-profile connections should ensure a big price, which is what he deserves to be. Don’t give him a sniff at anything less than 40-1.


PEDIGREE ANALYSIS

By Dan Illman

Sire:
With Distinction's big victory came in the Grade 3 El Conejo Handicap at 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Santa Anita. He earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 108 when winning an entry-level allowance race at a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. Although With Distinction never won around two turns, he did finish second in the Grade 2 San Antonio Handicap at nine furlongs.

It's way too early to tell if With Distinction will be a strong stamina influence as his first foals, including Decisive Moment, are three-year-olds of 2011.

Dam:
Decisive Moment is a half-brother to Judge's Appeal, a stakes-placed performer at 1 1/8 miles at Charles Town. Judge's Appeal won at distances between 6 1/2 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Another half-sibling, Evenly, finished second in a stake going 1 1/16 miles at Hoosier, but all of Evenly's wins came sprinting. The dam, a $290,000 yearling purchase by Dehere, was unraced. Her dam, Tell Margie (by Talc), won ten races and was a stakes-winner at five furlongs at Philadelphia Park. The fourth dam was multiple stakes-placed.

Outlook:
Decisive Moment may be best-suited to middle-distance races. He might do his best running between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles. The Derby could be a bit too far.


THE WIZARD'S PACE ANALYSIS:

Has proven to have only one running style and that is to be on the lead or sit right off it. He figures to face stiff pressure from the outset.