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PROFILE
By Mike Beer
Strengths
This battle-tested gelding has already started 13 times, making him the most experienced runner in this crop heading to the Derby. He won both of his two-turn starts on the main track last year, including a dominant performance in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity, which earned him the distinction of being the only 2-year-old to earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 or higher around two-turns more than once in 2010. He is 0 for 3 so far this year, but ran a deceptively strong race in the San Felipe when he contested an exceptionally fast pace, and he improved to a new Beyer top when just he just missed last out in the Santa Anita Derby.
Weaknesses
Distance. He was removed from the final round of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager with his own connections expressing concern about his ability to handle 10 furlongs and reporting that he would not be pointed for the Kentucky Derby. A nice effort in the Santa Anita Derby coupled with some recent disappointing runs from the leaders of the division has them reconsidering, but this horse has drifted through the stretch in all three of his starts this year, which suggests that he’s already pushing the limit of his stamina.
Betting Value
After flopping in his 3-year-old debut as a heavy favorite, Comma to the Top seems to have been quickly dismissed as a major player in this division and was sent off at 9-1 and 6-1 in his final two prep races. Distance is going to remain a major hurdle, but he has the positional speed to secure a spot away from traffic trouble in a bulky Derby field, and with the right trip and ride he could be a dangerous horse, and one to consider if he is let go in the 20-1 range, which seems likely.
PEDIGREE ANALYSIS
By Dan Illman
Sire:
Bwana Charlie's big victory came in the Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes going six furlongs at Saratoga with a 106 Beyer. He also won the Grade 3 Lafayette Stakes at seven furlongs at Keeneland. Bwana Charlie won at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile, but never ran longer than eight furlongs in his career.
Comma to the Top is easily Bwana Charlie's best runner from his first two crops.
Dam:
The sprint-placed dam is a half-sister to Yes He's a Pistol, the winner of the Santana Mile at Santa Anita with a 102 Beyer. Another one of her half-brothers, Dumaani of Course, finished second in the nine-furlong Prairie Bayou Stakes on dirt at Turfway Park.
The second dam, Maggies Pistol, won the Grade 3 Virginia Handicap at seven furlongs. This is the female family of Grade 3 sprint winner Good Potential.
Outlook:
Comma to the Top may be best at distances up to nine furlongs. The Derby may be a tad too long for him.
THE WIZARD'S PACE ANALYSIS:
Will force the tempo right from the start. The question is how much pressure he will take, and the fractions he will encounter.
Best Bets
DRINK OR SINK went too fast on the lead last time before fading on the turf at Tampa, and should be less aggressive here with blinkers off. Olguin was aboard for his good fall races on the Poly, and should have him closing at a square price in his second start of the year. GOOD BETTER BEST finished up the track behind two next-out winners when he tried the dirt for the first time March 30 at Gulfstream. He hasn't faced this easy a field in a while, and is no stranger to filling out the exactor.
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