09/14/2013 1:52PM

Closer Looks: Belmont September 15, 2013


DRF Plus Preview

Race 1

Turned in a solid placing first time out from this tricky post; she was sired by More Than Ready who won the G1 King's Bishop and 1.02 million; the dam went zero for 4; among the winning siblings is 168K earner Whirling Thunder.
My Surfer Girl
New face was sired by multiple G1 victor Henny Hughes who captured 1.12 million and whose progeny have won 32 out of 206 debuts; the dam won 5 of 24 and 185K; winning siblings include 73K earner Windsurfer.
Tea Time
Respectable showing behind Knacque first time out when losing significant ground; her sire won a pair of G2s and 728K; the dam involved was unraced; this is her only foal to make it to the races; latest breeze was an upgrade.
Lexi Morgan
Dangerous firster from winning connections; her sire won a G1 and 480K (offspring of Arch have won 41 out of 394 initial starts); the dam won 1 of 4 and 36K; sib to G2 winner Hudson Steele who netted 513K.
A wide path compromised her upstate when losing to some of these same rivals; her sire won a G1 and 633K while the mom went 2 for 8 earning 113K; this is her only foal to start; note superior a.m. move on 9/4.
Descendants of Quiet American, winner of the G1 NYRA Mile and 754K, are 38 for 686 as far as winning their first test; the dam lost her sole attempt; winning sibs include 145K bankroller Quiet Power; notice fine gate breeze on 8/29.
This trainer has been red-hot in recent weeks; the filly hails from multiple G1 type Bernardini who garnered 3.06 million and whose progeny have won 11 percent of their first races; the dam won 4 of 8 and 731K; sib to 299K earner Centring.
Her versatile sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million in total (offspring of Harlan's Holiday have won 66 out of 444 initial races); the dam won 3 of 19 and 86K; this is her only foal to start; latest breeze suggests she is at the ready.
Princess Tumi
Trainer Chad Brown is off to a flying start at the meet and this lass can add to the total; the sire involved won 4 of 6 and 148K (progeny of Flatter have won 29 out of 315 debuts); the dam was unraced; sib to 247K earner Whatsitgonnatake.

Race 4

His three most recent races have been fine performances and Levine sees fit to call upon Castellano after claiming him for 20k from his latest start; over the past five years, Levine has won with 6 of 16 (38%) starters after a claim with Castellano aboard, and 14 of the 16 (88%) have finished in the money.
East of Danzig
You have to go back to December 2011 to find his latest win, but it isn't like his form has been bad since that time; he's a good fit at this 20k claiming level and going to look for him to give a solid account of himself while making his first start for the Brown barn.
Minnie Punt
Multiple stakes winner hasn't been on top of his game lately, but he's run some strong races over turf in his career and this is only his second start since moving into the Jacobson barn; not going to be at all surprised if this late running type makes his presence felt through the final furlong.
Like the idea of this gelding getting back over a turf course that he's had some success over, and even though it would have been nice to have seen him show a little bit more when returned from a layoff in his latest start, he might be ready for a sharper showing with that race behind him.
Yankee Fourtune
Since a strong 3-year-old season that saw him go five-for-five with a couple of graded stakes wins, he's won just once from his last 14 starts, and he's been beaten by today's rival Nineinthenine in back-to-back starts prior to this.
Political Justice
This looks like it might prove to be a tough spot for him to try to secure his first top three finish racing over turf but willing to upgrade his chances in the event that this race has to be moved to the main track.
Not only does his best race appear to be short of the mark of what it will take to get the job done in this spot but his recent form hasn't been anywhere near his best; note that he was soundly defeated by today's rival Nineinthenine three back.
Late running type is light on winning form after 32 starts and he has just a single victory from 21 turf attempts; he looks like another in here who is going to need to find a way to produce a career best effort to get the job done.
Amber Coast
In a race where it looks like the winner will earn the Beyer Speed Figure around 80, this gelding has topped out at 74 through his first 13 starts; maybe if Political Justice scratches he can find himself on an easy early lead like he did at Saratoga in his latest outing; regardless, others entice more.
He's capable of producing a performance that is strong enough to make him a player in this spot and he beat a couple of today's rivals in his most recent start over turf at Saratoga two races ago; willing to ignore his latest performance over a sloppy surface.
Smokin Candy
The dirt form in the main body of this race is limited and this looks like it will be a decent spot for this stakes placed veteran to get to make his first start after moving back into the Englehart barn; Ortiz is a go-to rider for this outfit.
Star of Sarava
Multiple stakes placed veteran got the job done in his first start for this barn in his latest outing when shipped to Parx, and this would be a good spot for his return to New York if this race gets moved to the main track.
He figures to appreciate getting back over a dirt surface, especially if he gets a wet surface to run over, and all three of his starts over the main track here have been decent performances; he'll have a live look to him in this spot if he gets to go.

Race 5

Absolute Paradise
Although off the board yet again in her last turf assignment, she had much difficulty in that race while showing a bit of a middle move; has been shut out of the exacta in all previous visits here; minor spoils at best.
My Lucky Lieu
Can upgrade in this comeback bid since she is stabled here and has shown mild rallying capability in the past; would benefit if Jupiter Moon sets a lively pace today; latest breezes are fair.
You Take the Cake
Keeps earning minor checks but her best Beyer, by far, was achieved agt Saratoga; matches the profile of several of her rivals today as she has shown only modest late kick; would like to see her stretch out in the near future.
Tracy's Belle
Late foal has only one blemish on the record and is facing some chronic maidens today; her sire won a G1 and 2.19 million while the dam scored in 2 of 13 appearances earning 98K; among the winning siblings is 67K earner Gold Bear.
Sarah's Wild Girl
She has a history of bad racing luck but her best career effort, pace-wise, was over this soil; also encouraged by the recent blowout over the training track; can prove to be the resident longshot in open affair.
Canela Rose
After a fair first run at Finger Lakes, she lost all energy prior to the start of her grass debut; her sire won a G3 and 344K while the dam went zero for 12; there are no winning siblings to report.
Jupiter Moon
Although turning back in distance, she still appears to be the main speed; barely held second in the last test at Saratoga and may go to post as an underlay; still have to respect the record of the trainer at the helm.
Never better than third and that was accomplished over this course and under sloppy conditions; sudden breakthrough race just does not seem in the cards; cannot endorse for the top spot.
Andromeda's Coming
No firepower shown on the green so this surface switch is appropriate; her sire won a G3 stakes and 836K while the dam lost her only attempt; winning siblings include 14K earner Jet On Home.
Light Weight
Lost to You Take the Cake back in July but this alert breaker has improved since then; in her only start at this oval, she set or pressed very quick opening fractions; if speed types have dominated the card up to now, she is worth some backing.

Race 6

Sun Worshipper
Took a good step forward second time on the lawn after tracking a moderate clip in that longer 2 turn heat; maybe he packs a more potent kick at this shorter trip and he doesn't look to face a lot of early foot so he may be able to work out a nice ground saving spot going into the turn; contender.
National Buck
Turns back after coming up empty late off another wide run upstate; gelding goes for a barn that does ok with its runners moving to sprints but his debut run over the course wasn't very much; prefer to side with others for the money spots.
John Silver
Took some tote support from the fence first out against cheap claimers but didn't have much to offer and now they'll move him to the green; sire is 1 for 15 with his initial turf starters and the dam never tried the green, but each of her 3 foals to step over the stuff won on it including 125K earner Letshootpool who won her initial turf start.
Wasn't beaten much at a shorter trip on the Spa lawn last time at this level; he's certainly had his share of chances and will need to improve a bit from a figure standpoint to pose a serious threat for the top spot, but the barn has gotten off to a pretty nice start at the stand.
Sunny Coast
Didn't have much to offer from down inside while making his turf debut against open claimers upstate; prior main track spins weren't much to speak of either; tough to make a case for him getting involved in here.
Ran well at the level here in the spring and wasn't beaten all that much against stakes peers before finding the Spa route a little further than he wants to go; gray subsequently worked quite well on the main track up there before shipping back down here and this may be his preferred trip; giving this fresh gelding the nod to beat them home.
Late runner has been beaten by one of these in each of his last 3 starts; he ram well at this one turn trip in the spring but don't know that he's going to get a beneficial pace in front of him today; minor award.
Hasn't been close in a while and has yet to hit the board in 13 career spins, 5 of which came over the local sod; tough to make much of a case for this gelding regardless of price; have to pass on him.
Shades go on for the turn back after finishing pretty close to the runner up who returns here as well over a speed favoring upstate course; he's returned to work as if he's taken well to the new equipment and he'll likely find himself closer to the top today; main danger.
Ed's Magic
Tries older for the first time while also making his initial sod appearance in this heat; gelding did show improved lick second out and his sire does get about 10% first time surface winners from his offspring but the dam's 2 foals to race are a combined 0 for 5 on the lawn.
Here Comes Tommy
Fresh gelding was runner up in each of his 2 spins on the local sod and he worked well over the local main track last week for his return; he does own some nice surface numbers and is certainly a threat if he runs back to them, but his late running style doesn't play so well in here and he has had his share of chances; trying to beat him on the win end.
Outside drawn colt has had his stamina issues at shorter trips and now he'll stretch out a bit; outside draw could help him sit a stalking spot, but don't know that he's going to respond to the added distance so well; barn does already have a winner from just a couple of starters here.
Gentle Jim
AE does have speed and would add a new dimension to the heat if a scratch allows him to go; new hood could help him focus after failing to make the top from the outside slot in his local return; they'll probably have to catch him if he goes.
AE has the top pilot named to ride if he finds a way to draw in; turn back looks to suit him well and he should be able to sit a good tracking spot from here; contender if he gets to go.
AE makes his debut for an unknown outfit off a handful of slow out of town breezes; his sire gets 6% first out winners from his offspring, but 11% first turf winners; he's the first foal to race out of a dam whose 5 wins all came on the green.
He's mired on the AE list and not likely to make his surface debut following the first out fade in Jersey; his dam did drop SW turfer and 173K earner Dirge who won 6 times on the lawn and she herslef was a first time surface winner, but this one's sire is just 1 for 94 with his initial turf runners.

Race 7

Mlle Margaux
Has never been better but gets a massive class test; she is clearly best on wet ovals posting a 2-back career-best Beyer speed figure then upsetting on a sloppy-main track; the 3-back winner Beyered 65 in her next-out MTH-$12,500-claiming win; gets the winning-rail draw like last hoping for the same stalking trip.
Dreaming of Cara
Seems best on turf and will need to be a lot better than last when a tiring 4th on dirt; her last win was an optional claimer April, 2012, on AQU turf at 1M and 1-16th stalking from 4th; the BEL 0-for-8 turf record includes 3 defeats on today's Inner Turf course.
Love Stanza Chance
Exits her lowest 2013 Beyer when fading to finish last as she bore out again in the lane which she has done from time to time during career; 2-back wet-turf win is her best Beyer of the year and hopes for less-than-firm footing; she is another runner who gets tested at 9F for the 1st time.
Exits a career-best Beyer when seemingly screaming out for more distance and gets it here; only other time racing at 9F was a Grade 3 loss to a runner who also defeated her in last start; most-recent win was gate-to-wire and hopes to get loose on the lead but has Harbor Mist and Effie Trinket among others to battle with early.
Harbor Mist
Returns from the May vacation winless since June, 2012; frontrunner asked a lot to win on the lead right off the bench; her last 2 wins were on wet-main tracks so would not mind this being washed onto dirt; view as a pace presence for part.
Inimitable Romanee
The 10 minor awards on her resume leaps off the form at you as one who often races well in defeat much like recent losses; have to go back to September, 2012, to see a bad race on her form; tired the last time sent 9F is the main issue but off recent form is hard to leave out.
Lady's Lunar Luck
Looms for an ideal trip stalking the speed eyeing up her 3rd in a row; she is another trying today's Mile and an eighth distance for the very 1st time; has never been better drilling a new Beyer speed figure Top for last; just missed the last time racing on BEL Inner Turf.
Effie Trinket
Major-pace presence here; this is the seemingly easier spot than yesterday; she was at 20-1 morning-line odds September 14th BEL 9th the Grade 1 Garden City at 1M and an eighth on the BEL Inner Turf; has never been this far after hanging on well for 2nd money in last but all 4 wins in sprints is the issue.
Go Unbridled
Sire is 8-for-72 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-3 grass dam (4K) who produced no turf winners from 2 foals to attempt grass (0-6 combined 21K); loves that 9F-SAR dirt trip posting a stakes win in latest also producing a field-best Beyer in 2012.
Adriatic Dream
Declining-Beyer pattern off the 3-back career-best Beyer when finishing 2nd best vs. the winner who Beyered 89 in her next-out G1-DMR Oaks win; big-post position change breaking widest and sure to lose ground for this; is ranked a notch below the top contenders.
Mischief Maker
Main Track Only entry was favored off the bench when no match; is on the wrong end of the scale today; she will have to give Go Unbridled 7 pounds despite the loss when only giving her 4 in last; her last BEL dirt start was her lowest Beyer since August, 2012

Race 8

Officer about 5% with first-time turfers in a 187-runner sample; Grade 1 winning sire earned over $800K, never turfed; dam out of the money twice; this is her first to race; miss does seem to move up some in the off going off the June debut this year; keep one eye to the sky; would not want to jump on too short a number.
Miss Sweet Afleet
Only in the money once since the lone win and place horse in that maiden breaker has been out of the money 3 times since; show horse in her top career Beyer 3 back cashed next out for this very price, then was 3rd at this level; off fence today, must pick it up.
Guyana Star
Proven on the course vs. slightly tougher; hung wide in last but she was still inching toward the winner; miss needs help up front but there is sub :22 speed in here so she should get the right pace; should be rolling hard in the last furlong.
Go the Distance
Was slip, sliding away from 11 the day she won; she has not been in the same zip code of a winner since; apparently not much of a work horse, despite being fresh, would expect her to roll from off the pace if at all; tough to lay it on in on this miss.
Ideal Place
Overmatched in the only poor effort in the stakes; the winner that day clicked right back in another $100K restricted stakes with a 75 Beyer; she has much more speed than she just flashed when off slowly; if she breaks with her field, it could be a whole new ballgame; primed.
Eurokay by Me
One for 26 is a tough ticket to buy no matter how you slice it; the win came at 13-1 routing on the inner; she has tried this demanding distance thrice and was beaten 5 and a half when 4th in best try; not my kind of play.
She has been in some good barns as miss is under purchase price for the first time; this appears to be a better distance for her; she has shown the ability to be forwardly placed or come from 2nd to last; rider has has success with Asmussen; respect.
Snit Fit
She's never finished first but was awarded the win two back when pushed out; show horse that day graduated next out in a state-bred MSW with a 65 Beyer, then was third a half in a state-bred $20K claimer; don't fret about the moves, Hess seldom lets them sizzle in the mornings.
My Donna Jean
Been in a good race/bad race mode since March; lone win came in 2nd career start when going from a MSW to a maiden $50K seller on GP dirt with a 68 Beyer; she was losing ground late in that 6-furlong fray; a legit player off the June debut.
Face it, some claims just don't pan out; she really has not been close since leaving Florida; miss does have some natural speed and could flash move with the blinks today; needs a wake-up call.
Zekes Surprise
First off, she must prove she can win outside of state-bred land; signs of life two back, but then the major regression; would think long and hard before taking too short a number here.
Liz Lemon
At least she has not been whipped upteen times; can't be thrilled with the lone grass run when she beat a pair home; if you figure she just needed last, you can build a case for a move forward; look for bug to be aggressive and send hard.
Red Code
She has not been able to handle the truth vs. winners; hustled early two back in probably her best try vs. winners; more experienced pilot here and her best shot would probably be to gun early and try to discourage the other zip; maybe the price drop will help this Empire-bred.
Silver Silence
Only in the money once vs. winners and somebody had to run 2nd that day in the 4-horse field; far back in both of the sprints, but she was forced to steady last time; Solis more than capable with any close to a live mount.
Was losing a little ground late in the lone win at a shorter trip than today's distance; apparently not a keen am worker, could see her pushing the issue, not sure she will be around at the end.
Unbroken Dream
Dull efforts vs. winners so far, hence the drop; she did bobble 2 and was fried in a duel in last; place horse in last took a $25K claimer and the winner repeated in a $35K optional; she has some semblance of speed but can't see her clearing today; backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Race 9

Multiple stakes placed gelding chased a couple of today's rivals to the finish in his latest start but he's capable of turning the tables on those rivals on his best day; he'll appreciate getting back over the Belmont Park turf and getting a rider switch to Castellano.
Hear the Footsteps
He's in career best form right now, and after reeling off three consecutive wins, he finished right behind one of today's key rivals in Hangover Kid in his latest outing; he belongs on the list of contenders while going out for a barn that might be ready to get on a roll after a slow Saratoga meeting.
Compliance Officer
Maybe his best races are a thing of the past, but he had every right to need his latest race after a layoff, and it's probably a good idea to look for him to be ready for better while returning to action on normal rest and getting back over a turf course he loves; Solis is five-for-seven aboard this runner.
Majestic Raffy
He's capable of stepping up with a sharp pretty try on his best day but he hasn't shown that he's quite up to the level of the top contenders in here; maybe a minor award isn't out of the question, but going to look elsewhere for the top spot.
Respect the fact that he's been a pretty consistent performer racing over turf, and his career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned over the Belmont Park turf, but this does appear to be a very difficult step up in class for him.
Awesome Vision
Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a multiple stakes placed dam who won 6 of 60 starts for 225k, including 0-for-2 over turf; respect what he's done racing over dirt while winning six of 11 but this isn't a soft spot for his first turf assignment.
Hangover Kid
Grade 1 stakes placed 5-year-old beat a few of today's rivals in his latest start and the extra distance he sees today might be a welcome sight; Bravo has won with 7 of 19 (37%) mounts for this barn the past four years, including 6 of 13 (46%) with turf starters.
He's been struggling to settle down early on in his recent starts and maybe getting a different rider for this can prove to be a positive; if he brings his best with him, he'll be tough to deal with, and he's another in here who has been at his best racing over the Belmont Park turf.
Idle American
He's done well to win half of his six starts over turf but he's going to have to find a way to take his game to another level if he's planning on putting any pressure on the top contenders in this spot.
Most Happy Fella
This race looks like it might fall apart if it has to be taken off the turf, but even though this would be a favorable spot for this multiple stakes placed gelding to land in, Awesome Vision looks like he'll be tough to tackle.

Race 10

Uman Candy
In latest was screaming out for more distance and gets it here; looms for a better trip saving ground after wide journeys the latest coming off a 50-day absence; worked a sharp 4F on dirt for this; see plenty of upside for start 3.
J Rose Gal
Speedster cuts back in distance to her shortest-stamina test ever which should help the cause; the 2-back show runner graduated next out in a SAR-35K-maiden claimer with a 75 Beyer; declining-Beyer pattern while 4 times has lost in maiden claimers so has to pass the class test for this.
Rock N Cozy
Blew a big lead last time on the grass but has not shown that same type of gate speed in recent-dirt losses; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 86 Beyer; best Beyer was on grass at longer when blowing another early cushion.
Run to Mama
Took betting money for last but she has defeated just 1 runner combined from her last 2 dirt starts; the runner-up finisher 2-back Beyered 76 in her next-out SAR-MSW win; not much form on grass to begin career but the upside is she owns her best speed figures on the green.
Jennys Creek
Last time on BEL grass was a career-best Beyer performance rallying well vs. the winner who repeated in a SAR alw. with an 82 speed figure; beat the show runner who graduated next out in a SAR-MSW with a 71 Beyer; main knock is that today is chance 12 to earn diploma on turf but is hard to leave out.
Music Maid
Sire is 2-for-43 with 1st-time starters; 0-23 with 1st-turf runners; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-19 dam who went 6-0-0-0 on grass; mild worktab for this suggests we take a wait and see approach.
Pie's First Lady
In her best races she rallied well from off the pace but in some of her defeats like last she fades; 3-time beaten favorite stretches out to her longest-distance test ever coming off the 2nd-lowest Beyer of her career; the 3-back winner repeated in a SAR allowance with a 71 Beyer.
Utopian Wife
2nd-time out Beyer regression when fading; was off slowly in the debut where she finished better; new rider is her 3rd different pilot in as many races which is usually not a good-win angle but the new jockey wins 31% for the trainer at BEL since 2012.
Bi Light of Day
1st-blinkered and dirt start produced better gate speed; has a declining-career Beyer pattern off the best speed figure in the career debut when no match for Pie's First Lady and the winner who repeated with a 71 Beyer; view as a pace presence for part.
Accomplish First
1st start for a new trainer and away from a high-percentage barn produced a career-low Beyer when showing up with front wraps on for the 1st time; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU alw. with a 67 Beyer; debut vs. the show runner who graduated next out with a 63 speed figure.
Today Not Tommorow
Sire is 6-for-111 with 1st-time starters; 3-53 with 1st-turf runners; is out of a 4-for-45 dam (68K) who went 2-0-0-0 on grass; she produced 2 winners from 3 other foals to race 7-for-48 Tanqueray Time (58K); one foal is 0-for-1 on turf.
Lakeview Lady
Back on best surface; added distance off latest sloppy-main track fade 1st Lasix does not add to the appeal; career-best Beyer in the debut at shorter when tiring; high-percentage win trainer with runners 2nd-time back off the long layoff.
Amazing Abby
Adds more gate speed here cutting back to her shortest-distance test on grass; no stamina 2-back when posting a career-best Beyer from a similar wide draw vs. Jennys Creek; the workout for this was not very appealing.
Discreet Malena
Expected more from the 10th-place fading debut; the 0-for-28 MSW trainer and 5% grass barn since 2012 does not add to the appeal; most runners improve 2nd-time out and she has plenty of room to move forward.
Live Life Fast
Defeated the show runner in her troubled debut who Beyered 63 in her next-out BEL-MSW win; good-long layoff trainer since 2012 adds to the appeal and 7F may be the perfect distance after tiring in the final stages of a longer test for last.
Rosalie's Pleasure
Removes blinkers off the new career-best Beyer 1st time with the hood but was outfinished at shorter which doesn't bode well for today's added-distance test; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 78 in her next-out BEL-MSW win.