10/24/2012 10:20AM

Breeders' Cup 2012 pre-entries, odds

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Saturday, November 3, 2012 Get Advanced PPs »

Odds and comments by Mike Watchmaker.

Classic »

Purse: $5,000,000, 1 1/4 miles

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Game On Dude B. Baffert In top form and loves the track, but is just a little bit shaky at the distance 5-2
Royal Delta W. Mott Ladies' Classic is the goal, but she is in no way out of place in this event 6-1
Flat Out W. Mott This isn't at Belmont, his favorite track; beaten chalk in this race last year 8-1
Fort Larned I. Wilkes Will forgive his last; his Whitney two back was strong; big rebound threat 8-1
Ron The Greek W. Mott Won the Big Cap at distance over track last March, but last outing was dull 8-1
Mucho Macho Man K. Ritvo Was best in defeat in Woodward; not sure if he's quite good enough 10-1
Richard's Kid D. O'Neill Compromised by speed bias last time, added distance helps; dangerous 12-1
Nonios J. Hollendorfer Game second to Dude in the Awesome Again; he could win the Dirt Mile 15-1
To Honor and Serve W. Mott Has looked top class at various times, but has been too erratic this season 15-1
Alpha K. McLaughlin Came up empty in the Pa. Derby; looks to be a cut below these, anyway 20-1
Dullahan D. Romans Never been first or second on dirt; much prefers synthetic surfaces 20-1
Handsome Mike D. O'Neill Upset winner of Pa. Derby, and he would be an even bigger surprise here 20-1
Brilliant Speed T. Albertrani Third in last year's Belmont, but he's a turf horse, and is off form, too 30-1
Pool Play M. Casse His two dirt starts were both graded wins; in very deep here, however 30-1

Mile »

Purse: $2,000,000, 1 mile, turf

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Wise Dan C. Lopresti Has dominated since switching back to turf three starts ago; tough to beat 2-1
Excelebration A. O'Brien If not for the mighty Frankel, he'd be on a big win streak; top Euro threat 5-1
Moonlight Cloud F. Head Capable Euro filly runs against males regularly, so this is not a new thing 6-1
Obviously M. Mitchell Impressive how he has blossomed of late; risky to sell this speedball short 6-1
Little Mike D. Romans His two Gr. 1 wins this year came with easy leads; that won't happen here 12-1
Trailblazer Y. Ikee Good second to Obviously in U.S. bow; the Turf is his first preference 12-1
Animal Kingdom H. Motion An odd spot for the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner; first start since February 15-1
Doubles Partner T. Pletcher Needed his last and was very unlucky before the layoff; can get a piece 20-1
Jeranimo M. Pender Pops up with an occasional big effort, but he's generally not good enough 20-1
Mr. Commons J. Shirreffs Has ability, but even when he's on his game, his will to win is a question 20-1
Turbo Compressor T. Pletcher Turf is his first preference; has speed, but would be in tough in either spot 20-1
Suggestive Boy R. McAnally Will appreciate the return to turf; must significantly improve his U.S. form 30-1
Wilcox Inn M. Stidham Soundly beaten second to 'Dan' at Kee; has never been as good as these 30-1

Juvenile »

Purse: $2,000,000, 1 1/16 miles

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Power Broker B. Baffert Romped in Gr. 1 prep over track in dirt bow, but with the grain of speed bias 5-2
Shanghai Bobby T. Pletcher Has been crushing his opponents in New York and should route; obvious 3-1
Title Contender B. Baffert Only a maiden winner, but it was a fast score over track with blinkers on 6-1
Know More D. O'Neill Ran well winning a stakes in debut; last two weren't as good; mixed feelings 8-1
Speak Logistics E. Plesa, Jr. Stepping way up, but he did gallop in two starts since getting blinkers on 8-1
Capo Bastone J. Sadler Compromised by a speed track when third in the Front Runner; intriguing 10-1
Dynamic Sky M. Casse Second to Joha at Kee last time, he is another who has yet to race on dirt 12-1
Fortify K. McLaughlin Will have to do better than his flat third in the Champagne last time out 12-1
Monument J. Sadler Comes off clear win at distance over track, but vs. Cal breds in slow time 15-1
He's Had Enough D. O'Neill Had enough trouble in last, but lacks speed, and is also an unknown on dirt 20-1

Turf »

Purse: $3,000,000, 1 1/2 miles

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Point of Entry S. McGaughey Won five straight, the last three Gr. 1's; top U.S. hope ends Euro dominance 3-1
St. Nicholas Abbey A. O'Brien Won this last year; can forgive Arc flop, but some prior efforts were iffy 5-1
Shareta A. Fabre Also found wanting on deep going in Arc; prior form sharp; strong threat 6-1
The Fugue J. Gosden Fine Euro form against fillies; likely to stay with them in the F&M Turf 8-1
Trailblazer Y. Ikee Solid second in U.S. debut and added distance helps; stepping up, though 10-1
Little Mike D. Romans Mile is his first choice; his big wins this year all came with easy early leads 12-1
Treasure Beach A. O'Brien Gave top one a run last time on deep footing; firm turf suits top one better 12-1
Dullahan D. Romans Has run okay on turf, but has yet to win on it; Classic is his first preference 15-1
Slim Shadey S. Callaghan Won the local prep for this, but this is just an exponentially tougher race 15-1
Bourbon Bay N. Drysdale Admirable old pro probably wants weaker company at this stage of the game 20-1
Cogito D. O'Neill Disappointed in U.S. bow; reports have said he'd be more effective on dirt 20-1
Kindergarden Kid P. Miller No match for top one two starts back with the better trip; needs softer spot 20-1
Turbo Compressor T. Pletcher Tried rating, and finished second to 'Shadey' last time out; in over his head 20-1
Optimizer D. Lukas Improved dramatically in his last two, but not enough to contend here 30-1

Dirt Mile »

Purse: $1,000,000, 1 mile

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Shackleford D. Romans Second in Kelso off layoff, yet seems below his terrific early season form 7-2
Emcee K. McLaughlin On better part of track in his big Forego win; Sprint is his first preference 4-1
Jersey Town B. Tagg Strong score in the Kelso; do wonder if he can pair up big efforts like that 5-1
Fed Biz B. Baffert Disappointed at Hoosier, but is certainly capable of better; a possibility 6-1
Nonios J. Hollendorfer Game second to Game On Dude last time; top contender in this sort of spot 6-1
Jimmy Creed R. Mandella Sprint is his first preference, but he isn't out of his element in either race 12-1
Rail Trip R. Ellis At this point, this old pro might find the distance right in his wheelhouse 12-1
John Scott C. Gaines Hits hard, but might be a cut below and it appears he prefers synthetics 15-1
Delegation M. Casse Big fig win last time was due to uncontested lead; this will be his dirt debut 20-1
Handsome Mike D. O'Neill A repeat of his Pa. Derby upset wouldn't be enough; Classic his first choice 20-1
Tapizar S. Asmussen Has had some good days at SA, but his last was so poor it's hard to ignore 20-1
Second City B. Cecil Main claim to fame is a Derby win at Hastings. Overmatched? Just a little. 30-1

Turf Sprint »

Purse: $1,000,000, 6 1/2 furlongs (turf)

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Unbridled's Note S. Asmussen Won the local prep for this at distance, over course; fig was low, though 4-1
California Flag B. Koriner Downhill specialist won this race over the course in '09; away since April 9-2
Bridgetown T. Pletcher Good turf sprinter for a while and back in top form; downhill is the question 6-1
Camp Victory M. Mitchell Going dirt to turf is a positive move and he won a Gr. 1 three back; logical 6-1
Corporate Jungle C. Brown Chased Wise Dan in his last two and clearly, there are none like that here 10-1
Next Question M. Trombetta In career form, but this is a better group than the one he beat at Woodbine 10-1
Great Attack W. Ward Off since May; has done his best work in turf sprints at shorter distances 15-1
Mizdirection M. Puype Another coming off a long layoff, but is 2 for 2 over the course; maybe 15-1
Starspangledbanner A. O'Brien One good effort off long layoff is sandwiched by two poor ones; tough read 15-1
Chosen Miracle J. Hollendorfer Runner up to top one last time out has high early speed, but modest Beyers 20-1
Great Mills S. Asmussen Has been close in a few meaningful races, but his wins come in easier spots 20-1
Reneesgotzip P. Miller She's fast, and being 3 for 3 on synthetic, she could turf; not impossible 20-1
Upgrade M. Nihei Ran okay in his last two turf sprint attempts in NY; others just look better 20-1
Tale of a Champion K. Mulhall Wasn't beaten that far in the local prep, but wasn't up to the task, either 30-1
Also Eligible (in order of preference)
Global Power T. Amoss Sports decent form in listed stakes; this is tougher than what he's used to 30-1
Boxeur des Rues D. O'Neill It has been a long time since he won and doesn't look fast enough for this 30-1
Starspangled Heat B. Abrams Has lots of downhill course experience, but in entry-level allowance races 30-1

Sprint »

Purse: $1,500,000, 6 furlongs

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Coil B. Baffert Solid win in the local prep for this and rarely runs poorly; will be a handful 4-1
Amazombie B. Spawr Won this last year, but his last was a rare dud; formidable if able to rebound 9-2
Capital Account B. Baffert Fast closing, narrowly beaten second in the local prep; wants more ground 6-1
Emcee K. McLaughlin Breakthrough score in his last, although he was out in the better footing 6-1
The Lumber Guy M. Hushion If he was uncoupled in the Vosburgh, he'd have paid off at 20-1, not 2-1 8-1
Jimmy Creed R. Mandella Third in the same race the top three come out of; can be in the mix again 10-1
Poseidon's Warrior R. Reid, Jr. A big surprise two back, he didn't run as well last time; jury is out on him 15-1
Smiling Tiger J. Bonde There was a time when he'd be a major threat in this; looks past his prime 15-1
Sum of the Parts T. Amoos Versatile, and in career form, but needs a big move forward to contend 15-1
Gantry R. Faucheux Good in easier races, but he has never been effective at this high a level 20-1
Trinniberg S. Parbhoo His stakes wins came with uncontested early leads; no easy leads here 20-1
Hamazing Destiny D. Lukas Give him credit, he's been punching away for years; he's a Gr. 3 horse now 30-1
Justin Phillip S. Asmussen At his best on a wet track, which he isn't going to get at SA this time of year 30-1
Second City B. Cecil He's the British Columbia Derby winner. He's also in way over his head 30-1
Also Eligible (in order of preference)
Fast Bullet B. Baffert Obviously talented, but away a year and never ran in a stakes; I don't get it 15-1
Boxeur des Rues D. O'Neill Not fast enough or good enough for this; Turf Sprint is his first preference 50-1

Filly and Mare Sprint »

Purse: $1,000,000, 7 furlongs

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Groupie Doll W. Bradley Was always good, but has dominated in last four with blinkers; hard to stop 7-5
Turbulent Descent T. Pletcher Getting back to Cali will have to help because her last two in NY were so so 5-1
Contested B. Baffert Strong win in the Test Stakes at the distance; taking on tougher elders now 8-1
Dust and Diamonds S. Asmussen Like top one, she's on a win streak; her Gallant Bloom last out was best yet 8-1
Musical Romance W. Kaplan Won this race last year; all three of her wins so far this year were in Florida 12-1
Reneesgotzip P. Miller Crushed by top male Sprint contenders last time; Turf Sprint first preference 15-1
Class Included J. Penney She's a win machine, but this isn't Emerald Downs or Hastings, anymore 20-1
Rumor R. Mandella Her overall form is good; facing tougher than she is accustomed to, though 20-1
Switch J. Sadler Second in this the last two years, but recent races say she's past her prime 20-1
Teddy's Promise R. Ellis Can improve second off layoff, but her best efforts were several starts back 20-1
Belle of the Hall T. Albertrani Got her shot here by beating a filly last time who desperately needs a rest 30-1
Great Hot A.C. Avila Been a while since her last win, or since her last stakes-class Beyer Fig 30-1
Self Preservation B. Cecil Finally passed the entry level allowance condition; doesn't belong here 30-1
Strike The Moon M. Trombetta Runner up to Groupie Doll in the TCA, but a distant runner up; overmatched 30-1

Juvenile Turf »

Purse: $1,000,000, 1 mile (turf)

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Dundonnell R. Charlton Won a Group 3 two back over the subsequent winner of the Royal Lodge 4-1
Artigiano M. Al Zarooni Improving colt was a good second in the Royal Lodge last time, his best yet 5-1
Noble Tune C. Brown Showed a most impressive turn of foot in Pilgrim; won debut on firm turf 6-1
Balance The Books C. Brown Beyers are light, but he used a big late kick to win graded stakes in last two 10-1
Fantastic Moon J. Noseda Was favored when fifth in Royal Lodge; previous wins say he can rebound 10-1
George Vancouver A. O'Brien Hit the board in Group 1's in two of his last three; inconsistency is the issue 10-1
Gervinho C. Gaines Really liked his closing kick to win the local prep for this; has a big shot 10-1
Joha M. Maker Nailed by 'Books' two back; flattered that one with his Gr. 1 Poly win at Kee 12-1
Know More D. O'Neill Last two not as good as his stakes winning debut; synth form says he'll turf 12-1
Dry Summer J. Mullins Forget his last; he ran well winning two back at this distance in only turf try 15-1
Brown Almighty T. Ice Hasn't run a bad one yet; faces tougher, but he is certainly not out of this 12-1
I'm Boundtoscore T. Rankin Upset winner of the Summer Stakes has also run well each start; deep race 15-1
Lines of Battle A. O'Brien His Racing Post Ratings are okay, but his one Group stakes try was lacking 12-1
Summit County D. Romans Wasn't badly beaten in turf stakes in his last two, but that won't cut it here 15-1
Also Eligible (in order of preference)
Snow King J. Gosden Won a maiden event at Ascot in his only start; did beat 16 doing it, though 20-1
He's Had Enough D. O'Neill Juvenile is his first preference; deep closer is vulnerable to bad racing luck 20-1
Gabriel Charles J. Mullins An unknown on turf; his dirt, synthetic efforts say he's going the wrong way 30-1
Rising Legend J. Sadler Scored in his last two in England; been in weaker races than the other Euros 20-1
Under Review J. Sadler Competitive in both starts at Arlington, but in easier and much slower races 30-1

 

Friday, November 2, 2012 Get Advanced PPs »

Odds and comments by Brad Free.

Ladies' Classic »

Purse: $2,000,000, 1 1/8 miles

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Royal Delta B. Mott Dominated her final prep, legitimate favorite to repeat this race 5-2
Awesome Feather C. Brown 10-for-10, earned giant speed figure last out in non-graded stake 9-2
Questing K. McLaughlin New York dirt terror missed while conceding 7 lbs., now weight-for-age 5-1
Love and Pride T. Pletcher Circumstances to order SA & BEL, is she really lucky or really good? 6-1
My Miss Aurelia S. Asmussen Six-for-six filly beat Questing with weight break, working well SA 6-1
Grace Hall A. Dutrow Cakewalked vs. Hoosier Park creampuffs, good 3yo faces tougher 8-1
Include Me Out R. Ellis Queen of California was compromised by pace, bias her final prep 8-1
In Lingerie T. Pletcher Improving 3yo defeated older KEE Poly, first preference F&M Turf 12-1
Class Included J. Penney One-two 16 starts Emerald Downs & Hastings Park, first pref F&M Sprint 30-1

Filly & Mare Turf »

Purse: $2,000,000, 1 1/4 miles, turf

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Ridasiyna M. Delzangles Top-class import from France arrives with outstanding credentials 3-1
The Fugue J. Gosden Hotshot G1 winner in UK targeted this all season, Euros strong here 4-1
Marketing Mix T. Proctor Runner-up Beverly D in summer, aided by “rabbit” winning G1 in fall 5-1
Nahrain R. Varian Narrow miss this race last year, returned to form BEL "yielding" 8-1
Zagora C. Brown Briefly opened up in Flower Bowl, got caught, distance limitations? 8-1
I'm A Dreamer D. Simcock Scored summer upset in Beverly D , okay fourth in recent BEL bog 8-1
Nereid J. Shirreffs 2012 was bust for good filly until recent wake-up, runner-up to 'Mix 12-1
In Lingerie T. Pletcher First try on grass after dominating Spinster on Poly, improving 3yo 12-1
Lady of Shamrock J. Sadler Facing older fillies and mares for first time, following 10-week layoff 15-1
Up A. O'Brien G2-caliber Irish filly tried these in Beverly D, was not good enough 15-1
Star Billing J. Shirreffs Inconsistent filly has run races that fit for minor award here 30-1
Stormy Lucy F. Lucarelli Longshot nibbler all summer and fall in California, faces tall order 30-1
Almudena J. Suarez First since May for South American import, first preference Marathon 30-1

Juvenile Fillies »

Purse: $2,000,000, 1 1/16 miles

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Executiveprivilege B. Baffert Looked like star going 5-for-5, but Oct. 21 work reportedly was blah 8-5
Dreaming of Julia T. Pletcher Went fast early and slow late in gritty G1 win, now tries two turns 5-2
Beholder R. Mandella Speedster will use gas elsewhere, first preference Juvenile Sprint 7-2
Kauai Katie T. Pletcher Unbeaten New York sprints, interesting pace play w/out Beholder 7-2
Spring in the Air M. Casse Top filly on synthetic and turf, conventional dirt whole new world 6-1
Broken Spell W. Lukas Breeders’ Cup incomplete without Lukas, longshot late-runner 8-1
Renee's Queen E. Guillot Recovered from autumn illness, turf-synth filly working well dirt 10-1
Sweet Shirley Mae W. Ward Gate scratch BEL Oct. 6 Frizette, first preference Juvenile Sprint 15-1
Almost an Angel W. Ward Off board both graded stakes, first preference Juvenile Sprint 15-1

Marathon »

Purse: $500,000, 1 3/4 miles

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Worth Repeating M. Machowsky Bargain $62.5k claim sharp now, won a SA dirt marathon 2011 7-2
Eldaafer D. Alvarado Won this race 2010 at CD, well-bred gelding going strong age 7 4-1
Not Abroad M. Petro Romped in Maryland-bred stakes, enters in peak form 9-2
Atigun K. McPeek BEL shipper dropping from G1, lone 3yo still has upside 5-1
Jaycito B. Baffert It turns out this N2X-eligible colt has always been over-rated 10-1
Commander T. Taylor Hastings Park shipper with speed, intriguing longshot 15-1
Grassy M. Jones Will run all day, but will he run on dirt? All 19 starts on turf 15-1
Juniper Pass T. Bell Gelded in summer, G2 winner set for best third start back 15-1
Balladry E. Harty Last by a long way final prep, but has run races that fit here 20-1
Fame and Glory A. O'Brien A stayer in Europe, trying dirt surface for the first time 20-1
Romp K. Mulhall Always been a cut below this class level, 4-for-53 career 20-1
Calidoscopio G. Frankel South American 9yo makes U.S. debut following four-month layoff 30-1
Almudena J. Suarez South American mare earned reputation in Peru, these are tougher 30-1
Sense of Purpose D. Weld Has not done a thing in three starts since July 2011 30-1
Also Eligible (in order of preference)
Quail Hill D. O'Neill Got blown away by Worth Repeating at Los Angeles County Fair 20-1

Juvenile Fillies Turf »

Purse: $1,000,000, 1 mile (turf)

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Sky Lantern R. Hannon G1 win-and-in heroine in Ireland, class of field U.S. debut 3-1
Watsdachances C. Brown Won on soft, firm and yielding, crushed BEL G3 last out 4-1
Spring Venture M. Casse Three-for-three vs. dubious WO competition, class test here 6-1
Waterway Run R. Beckett G3 winner UK been showing speed 7f, two turns is new 8-1
Flashy Ways R. Baltas $100k BC supplement after clever stakes win SA turf course 10-1
Tara From the Cape T. Pletcher Returns to turf following modest fourth on KEE Polytrack 10-1
Sustained D. Romans Runner-up in roughly run BEL G3, improving each start 12-1
Flotilla M. Delzangles "Live" longshot was compromised by traffic in Longchamp G1 12-1
Kittten's Point G. Motion Took the long way home both starts, G3 runner-up KEE 20-1
Moonwalk D. Romans Popped $74 KEE win-and-in G3,  race appeared to be weak 20-1
Summer of Fun G. Weaver Third head on  wire in blanket-finish G3 at KEE 30-1
Oscar Party W. Catalano Fourth head on  wire in blanket-finish G3 at KEE 30-1
The Gold Cheongsam J. Noseda UK shipper won 3 of 7, unestablished vs. top company 30-1
Nancy O C. Costigan Significant trouble most recent turf try,  eased on dirt in last 30-1
Also Eligibles (in order of preference)
Infanta Branca A. O'Brien Sibling to 1998 Derby prospect Lil's Lad, tough to like off Euro form 30-1
Renee's Queen E. Guillot DMR turf stake win, good dirt works, first preference Juvenile Fillies 30-1
Manuka Honey J. Terranova Maiden two starts into career, placed  “yielding” G3 at BEL 20-1
Moulin de Rougin R. Mandella Ran to hillside pedigree in maiden win, should stay a mile 20-1

Juvenile Sprint »

Purse: $500,000, 6 furlongs

HORSE TRAINER COMMENT ODDS
Beholder R. Mandella Freaky win speed-biased track, 108 Beyer highest of year by 2yo 7-5
Kauai Katie T. Pletcher Fast NY filly rationed speed and romped, first preference Juve Fillies 3-1
Merit Man R. Hess, Jr. Sharp win over track, jockey P. Valenzuela rode the first BC race 1984 4-1
Super Ninety Nine B. Baffert Debut winner reportedly "outworked" Executiveprivilege on Oct. 21 8-1
South Floyd D. O'Neill Adds heat, ranks below the top contenders according to speed figures 10-1
Sweet Shirley Mae W. Ward Posted two sharp workouts following Oct. 6 gate scratch Frizette at BEL 12-1
Ceiling Kitty T. Dascombe Overmatched Euro filly owned, bred by Betfair founder Andrew Black 20-1
Almost an Angel W. Ward Trouble-prone miss not fast enough on figs, bred for synth/turf 20-1
Hightail W. Lukas Eight-start maiden curiously spotted, shortens from route to sprint 30-1
Hazardous C. O'Callaghan Earned $18k first-off-claim win, giving back most of it BC entry fees 30-1

Cross Entered Horses

Almost an Angel – Juvenile Sprint (1), Juvenile Fillies (2)
Almudena – Marathon (1), Filly and Mare Turf (2)
Beholder – Juvenile Sprint (1), Juvenile Fillies (2)
Boxeur des Rues – Turf Sprint (1), Sprint (2)
Class Included – Filly and Mare Sprint (1), Ladies Classic (2)
Dullahan – Classic (1), Turf (2)
Emcee – Sprint (1), Dirt Mile (2)
Handsome Mike – Classic (1), Dirt Mile (2)
He’s Had Enough – Juvenile (1), Juvenile Turf (2)
In Lingerie – Filly and Mare Turf (1) , Ladies Classic (2)
Jimmy Creed – Sprint (1), Dirt Mile (2)
Kauai Katie – Juvenile Fillies (1), Juvenile Sprint (2)
Know More – Juvenile Turf (1), Juvenile (2)
Little Mike – Mile (1), Turf (2)
Nonios – Dirt Mile (1), Classic (2)
Reneesgotzip – Turf Sprint (1), Filly and Mare Sprint (2)
Renees Queen – Juvenile Fillies (1), Juvenile Fillies Turf (2)
Royal Delta – Ladies Classic (1), Classic (2)
Second City – Sprint (1), Dirt Mile (2)
Sweet Shirley Mae – Juvenile Sprint (1), Juvenile Fillies (2)
The Fugue – Filly and Mare Turf (1), Turf (2)
Trailblazer – Turf (1), Mile (2)
Turbo Compressor – Turf (1), Mile (2)