Bernier: Analysis for Los Alamitos pick six on Saturday, Dec. 17

The final Saturday of the Los Alamitos winter meeting features a pick-six carryover of $308,191. California Chrome is scheduled to run in the final race of the day, the Winter Challenge, and because he figures to be a heavy favorite and logical single, the pick six will begin one race earlier than usual. The sequence consists of races 3-8, with race 3 scheduled for 4:28 Eastern. Here are a few runners to consider using.

RACE 3
BARBARA JO makes her first start for trainer Bob Baffert and will break from the inside post. She hasn’t shown much in two lifetime starts, but perhaps Baffert can get her to move forward here. MAXNELLA drilled from the gate Dec. 7 in 59.80 seconds, and it’s possible that she’ll flash big early speed and threaten to wire this field. TAWNY certainly didn’t look like a superstar in her career debut, but she possesses the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field and could be tough to handle if she moves forward in start No. 2.

RACE 4
PRINCESS TIZNOW exits a live race at Del Mar on Nov. 18 and appears to be lone speed. If she’s able to clear and back the pace down, she’ll be tough to catch. ANGEL ON POINT becomes interesting if she successfully takes to the dirt; the Beyers she has earned on turf show that she fits at this level.

RACE 5
BOONE DOCKS has big early speed that always makes him a threat in races like this. He’s shown that he doesn’t like to pass horses, so expect Luis Contreras to send him immediately to the front. Conversely, SUCCESS RATE has shown the ability to sit off a target, even with his strong early speed. He has the best of both worlds and should be considered a major player. LUCKARACK has run well on dirt, but the significant cutback in distance could prove too much to overcome.

RACE 6
FOREST BLUE gets class relief, sheds blinkers, and turns back for Peter Miller; all those things are generally positive for Miller, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this runner fire a solid effort. PETE’S PLAY CALL gets a slight reduction in distance today, and that may be all he needs to get the job done. TRIBAL ROAR has demonstrated the ability to sit off runners and still get the job done; if things heat up on the front end, look for him to bide his time and make his move turning for home.

RACE 7
AMERICANIZE is strictly the horse to beat in the seventh race. His career debut was legit, and Baffert can have horses ready to fire off long layoffs. If he’s able to replicate his career debut, the rest of this field is likely running for second. He’s likely to be a heavy favorite and a key for many pick-six players. Alternatives to Americanize include LORD SIMBA and GOSOFAR.

RACE 8
INDYGO HOLIDAY is one of two runners in this race with early foot; he’s shown the ability to sit off a target, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sitting second throughout. HOFFENHEIM will take a fair amount of action, but he’s far from the most trustworthy runner. LINDANTE may be a bit of a horse-for-course, as he’s had success at Los Alamitos in the past.