09/10/2013 1:28PM

Belmont: Closer Looks for September 11, 2013


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Race 1

Wedding Toast
Sure have to love the way she broke her maiden at SAR July 29 - just her 2nd start, her first route and she led them on a merry chase; usually once Trainer K gets 'em on the right rack they tend to stay there and there are 3 nice works since; also first time Lasix (McLaughlin 19 for last 61, 31%, with this move).
Galloping Giraffe
Big maiden win came over this track and then she was a strong 2nd at SAR July 31 while taking on elders to boot; that was enough to earn a shot at the G1 Alabama; OK, that didn't go so well as she was no match for her stablemate Princess of Sylmar but she's back to a much better level and to a track you know she likes and if there are no ill effects from that run she can surely bounce back - but that's no small 'if', is it?
Cue the Moon
After her debut win at SAR a year ago they've thought enough of her to toss her into the deep end in all her action since as she's been in 4 graded stakes; yes, those G1 waters the last 2 times out proved too deep but off the freshening she's down in class with plenty of strong works including a big bullet :47.40B at SAR last Thursday.
Last 2 vs. optional claimers weren't bad, and she was claimed each time; in fact, last time (June 21) Jerkens claimed her right back for this same price after losing her; has given her time to regroup and she owns a win here; that being said, her overall form and overall figures leave her with some work to do if she's to be a factor here; of course, that ain't outta reach and it's certainly a good sign Jerkens dove in and took her right back after losing her the race prior.
Lady Clara
Tough to be too enthused; showed talent in the fall/winter of 2011/2012 to be sure, including a 3rd in a stakes on AQU's inner; alas, then came 6 months off, 2 dull outings at MTH, a year on the bench and 2 dull outings at SAR this summer; they even tried turf last time to see if that could snap her back to life; it didn't; back to dirt and at least there's no drop but there's the big worry that whatever led to those 2 long layoffs has taken too many strides away from her.-Michael Hammersly

Race 2

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from four starts, and she didn't make a turf start; Castellano has won with 44 of 143 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Social Affair
Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and G1 stakes placed dam won once from three starts for 64k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to G1 winner Dancing Forever (5-22, 901k over turf) and Puzzling (2-13, 108k over turf).
Limited available data on sire with regard to his North America turf starters, but he was a G2 winner overseas while winning 4 of 23 starts for 187k; this is the first foal from a dam who won once from six starts for 42k, and she didn't make a turf start; winner from latest won next out at Mth on 9/1 going 6f in a G3 with a 77 Beyer.
Johnny Football
Sire has won with 2 of 12 (16%) of his first-time starters and he's 2-for-3 with his turf starters, and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; 110k purchase looks like he's been doing some nice work in the a.m.
Smooth Daddy
He was much improved at second asking with a move to turf and he's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 10 of 30 starts for 294k, including 4 of 11 turf starts for 125k; 3rd finisher from latest won next out at Sar on 8/24 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 73 Beyer.
Greek God
He debuted in a stakes and he just missed in a sharp runner-up performance at second asking when stretched out in distance; his dam won 5 of 23 starts for 165k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 25k; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Hard Enough (4-15, 140k, including 3 of 9 turf starts for 110k).
Shadow Banking
Sire wins with approximately 15% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Profiteroles (3-16, 161k, including 2 of 13 turf starts for 134k) and G1 stakes palced Stormy Len (2-9, 229k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 185k).-Brian Pochman

Race 3

The Last Disciple
Good news is his only start has proven to be a productive race (produced 2 next-out winners); now the bad news - he was no factor that day (7th) so he likely doesn't deserve those bonus points, and that outing came last Dec. 24 and he hasn't been seen since, so now there's a long layoff to deal with; at least drops but the works don't exactly get the pulse racing either; 1 of 2 sibs to race is winner Unusual Las (4 wins, $74K).
Perfect Coconut
Sire Pleasantly Perfect gets over 15% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire was a beast, winning 9 of 18 for $7.7 million, won G1 BC Clasic, G1 Dubai World Cup, G1 Pacific Classic, multiuple G2 SW, 3rd in G1 BC Classic; dam has 2 winners from 4 foals including Lookingatlangfuhr (2 wins, $90K); dam won 1 of 10 for $39K, was SP; works have com ehere and that Aug. 22 move isn't too shabby (4fs in :49B, 2nd fastest of 20 that day).
El Dreamer
When they've had 42 chances you can certainly be forgiving for looking around first before coming back to him; that being said, 11 2nds show he's got some ability and one of those came recently at SAR Aug. 14; downside is after that he ran miserably there Aug. 23; again, tough to get behind a guy who's had so many chances but he is reunited with Franco who was up for that good Aug. 14 run so never say never.
Silver Shot
Good speed shown in first 2 outings, both at SAR last month and separated by just 5 days; bad news is he also showed he could hit the brakes pretty hard as he faltered to finish last in each; worked a couple times since and at least that speed should have him in the thick of it early, though there needs to be a big improvement stamina-wise if he's to have any sort of say late.
Dapper Draper
Could be spotted for action; yes, those 2 nice 3rds at SAR in August came on turf but note a smart 2nd on dirt on AQU's inner in March, so he handles this footing; shown ample tactical speed regardless of surface and the class drop may be just what the Dr. ordered.
River Ron
Flashed some talent here in the spring/fall of 2012 but things went south after that; now returns here after a long layoff (7 months) and after his form declined significantly on AQU's ionner; at least 3 best races (2 2nds, 1 3rd) all came here but were those too long ago to really matter here?
Streets of Fire
Added blinkers, jumped out to the lead in the mud at SAR Sept. 2 but fatlered in the lane; does at least have speed and there's a slight drop today; even so, his lone try at this level came here June 28 and after prompting the pace he gave way, so does even the drop give him enough of a boost to make a difference?
Market Blaster
Best finish came on dirt, though even that 3rd wasn't all that strong (beaten 9 1/4 lengths); it also came 10 months ago; had his schedule interrupted a few times since and comes off a dull turf try here June 16; hasn't run since and there's a drop but as with a couple others in here considering his form has been spotty is the drop enough to matter?; at least he's not facing all that much power and has been working along nicely the past month or so.-Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Star Grazing
Sire is 27-for-213 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-6 grass dam (32K turf); 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-2 combined; exits a field-best Beyer when defeating the show finisher in the debut who posted a 59 Beyer speed figure in her next-out FL-121K stakes victory.
Easy Living
Sire is 6-for-35 with 1st-turf starters; 9-for-34 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 1-for-13 dam (22K) who went 2-0-0-0 on turf producing 10 winners from 11 foals to race; 2 of 8 foals to race on grass are lawn winners including 30K-turfer Harbor Mist (1-for-2).
Manner of Speaking
Sire is 54-for-618 with 1st-turf starters; 44-for-446 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a SW dam (7-for-12, 262K) who did not race on turf; 6 of 7 foals to race are winners; 1 of 4 foals to race on turf is a winner (1-for-10 Miss Blarney Stone 63K grass).
Mlle. Minuit
Sire is 1-for-34 with 1st-turf starters; 2-for-46 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who's only other foal to race is 2-for-11 Mlle Margaux (76K) who went 1-for-7 on turf (15K).
The 4th and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 65-58 in next-out PRX-SAR-MSW wins; sire is 29-for-222 with 1st-turf starters; dam did not race on grass; 2 foals to race on grass are 0-for-3 combined.
Lehigh Alum
Sire is 6-for-35 with 1st-turf starters; 9-for-34 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 5 winners from 5 other foals to race (436K-SW R Betty Graybull 8-for-23); 4 foals to race on turf are 0-for-9 combined.
Sire is 0-for-2 with 1st-turf starters; 44-for-395 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an 0-for-11 dam (24K) who went 2-0-0-1 on turf (3K) producing 4 winners from 4 other foals including 1 turf winner 1-for-4 Araiadna (7K grass).
Lil' Zilla
23%-winning 2nd-start trainer suggests a big improvement is possible; she adds blinkers with plenty of room to move forward off the career debut where she broke last then did not make much of an impact thereafter.
Maybry's Fortune
Sire is 1-for-5 with 1st-turf starters; 2-for-5 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 5-for-17 dam (116K) who did not race on turf producing 9 winners from 9 other foals to race; 4 of 6 foals to race on turf are grass winners including 55K-turfer Via Vere (2-for-8).
Sire is 4-for-24 with 1st-turf starters; 0-for-21 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 4 winners from 7 other foals to race (125K Honey Moon 4-for-19); 4 foals to race on turf are 0-for-10 combined.
Mary's in Utopia
Sire is 3-for-52 with 1st-turf starters; dam did not race on grass; her only foal to race on grass went 6-0-1-4 (25K); the 4th and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 65-58 in next-out PRX-SAR-MSW wins.
Moves Your Soul
Sire is 5-for-164 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal to race out of an unraced dam; ran to the 27-1 debut odds with a steady worktab off the loss to Kelly's Prize who races here if this is moved to dirt.
Lucky Nancy E.
Wet turf in the debut finishing evenly but an educational effort after taken up early; the added 1.5F for this should help her cause; new rider wins 31% for the trainer since 2012; expecting a significant 2nd-time out improvement.
Backstretch Lady
Big 2nd-time out Beyer improvement 1st time on turf but the added distance off the debut fade is a big concern; broke mid-pack in latest-even defeat without blinkers; would have to show a lot more than 1st pair to land a share.
Takeoff Your Hat
Sire is 0-for-2 with 1st-turf starters; 0-for-4 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 1-for-12 dam (51K) who went 3-0-0-0 on turf (1K) producing 2 winners from 5 other foals to race; 2 of 5 foals are turf winners including 101K-grasser John's Song (6-for-19).
Kelly's Prize
Main Track Only entry displayed a good-2nd-time out improvement 1st-time blinkers and 1st start on dirt; has been working nicely since; benefits moving all the way off the rail after 2 inside draws which can be tricky post positions for inexperienced rivals.-Art Gropper

Race 6

Addison Run
Dangerous import from Maryland has been training well; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.31 million (progeny of Unbridled's Song have won 111 out of 829 debuts); the dam lost her only race; among the winning siblings is 36K earner Radner Road.
The winner of her maiden voyage came back to score in an overnight stakes before failing at the G2 level; this filly's sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 4.37 million; the dam won multiple G1s on the turf and 1.67 million; sib to 169K earner Hatheer.
Made up ground belatedly after a very difficult trip upstate last month; the extra sixteenth of a mile should work in her favor today but she may not receive as strong an early pace now; conflicting signals therefore.
Sylvia T
Has earned checks every time and her most recent half-mile drill suggests the freshening has done her some good; she is the only runner in the field with experience at this tricky distance; needs a solid set of early fractions this afternoon.
Newcomer was sired by G3 type Here's Zealous who banked 456K and whose offspring have won 10 out of 84 initial starts; the dam scored in 1 of 12 appearances earning 13K; there are no winning siblings to mention.
Modest breeze pattern for this beginner, daughter of Breeders' Cup Sprint champ Speightstown (his descendants are 58 for 349 as far as winning their first test); the dam was unraced and this is her only foal to compete.
My Place
Failed to find a race at Saratoga despite some superior workouts there; her sire won multiple G3s and 413K (progeny of Elusive Quality have won nearly 16 percent of their initial races) while the mom won 2 of 7 and 62K; sib to 41K earner Gorgelicious.
Ever Awesome
Unlucky lass ran into a repeat winner in her first race, was shot down in a duel in her second and then had a bumpy trip in her third; returning breeze pattern is steady and perhaps she can prove to be the right value play in this wide-open affair.
Delany Road
Even effort in her maiden voyage of nearly a month ago; her sire is pure sprinter More Than Ready, who won a G1 and 1.02 million; the dam won 4 of 24 and 285K; among the winning siblings is 70K winner E Street Shuffle.
Her most recent a.m. drill suggests she is ready to roll; her sire won multiple Group 3s and 173K (descendants of Bernstein have won 10 percent of their first attempts); the dam was a Group 1 winner who notched 821K; sib to 221K earner Noble Cafe; top-notch connections in her corner.-Jim Kachulis

Race 7

So Royal
Speedy filly moves to the fence following 2 straight runner up finishes for cheaper prices since moving to this circuit; maybe she's tighter with her return from the short break behind her and the inside draw means she'll again be gunning from the bell; while she may have to work hard from here, if she's able to get back to the 2 back local trip try she could prove tough to reel in; one to catch and beat.
Tries the lawn for the initial time in her return from nearly 7 months on the shelf while picking up a top pilot here; sire is just 2 for 45 with his first time turfers and the dam was winless from 3 turf spins prior to dropping a runner who was 0 for 4 overseas; don't know that she's going to take to the new footing, but she was ok sprinting on the main track last year and should get an honest clip to run into today.
Princess Adelyn
Barn has had luck with recent firsters but this gal doesn't boast a morning move past a half mile all summer; sire gets 16% debut winners and 10% first time surface winners from his offspring and the dam was a limited route winner who failed to hit the board in her lone turf try; dam did drop 4 sprint winners but the lone one to try the green was 0 for 1 on it.
I'm Smokin Hot
First part of the entry didn't break too well in her first with claimers upstate though she did offer some late foot to finish just over a length behind one of the gals she'll catch again in this spot; she'll step up in price here, but she's certainly got a right to keep improving with just 3 career starts under her belt and the price should be solid.
Beaten odds on chalk gets back to the green while cutting back a panel off her pace setting efforts in the Spa off the turfer; filly changed hands off that one and the new outfit does ok with its newly claimed stock right back; she's never gone this short, but maybe it allows her to employ off the pace tactics and she'll get the services of a hot Castellano; contender.
Fly Solo
She's settled for a handful of minor awards in her 9 tries including most recently in her local circuit debut; like the lick she showed despite the rough start she encoutered in that one and she has shown she can still factor if she doesn't make the lead which is a good possibility in here; barn does ok with its newly claimed runners right back; consider.
Tricky Game
She's a Medaglia d'Oro filly who went for just 30% of her sire's stud fee at auction which raises an immediate red flag; sire does get 10% first out winners, though, and 9% first time surface winners; unraced dam dropped 5 winners who were a combined 0 for 8 on the green; works don't offer many clues for an outfit that doesn't bring many to the gate.
Maintain the Magic
Makes her local return after tiring from her pace efforts going long against MSWs at Monmouth 10 days ago; filly didn't do much going long here off the break 2 back; maybe she's better second time in shades and the dam did drop a couple of main track sprint winners so maybe the turn back helps some.
Love That Kelly
She's another shipping in here after setting the pace in a route on the Jersey shore; she's run well since moving back to the green maybe those efforts will help her offer more late at this shorter trip; barn doesn't win often, but this gal has some tactical foot so maybe she's able to sit within striking range early on the turn back and her recent numbers suggest she's a decent fit with this bunch.
Lost in Success
Other half of the coupling goes MTO in this spot and doesn't boast particularly quick drills for a barn that does nice work with its newcomers; sire gets 16% winners from his debut runners and the unraced dam dropped 2 sprint winners from 3 other foals to race.-Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Border Song (FR)
He ran well in his first start in America at Keenland back in April and feel that he's likely to bounce back with a sharper showing after finishing last in his latest start; it looks like there's enough early speed signed on to assist his late running style.
This colt has a fine pedigree for turf and he ran well in his first start in America in his latest outing; however, he is going to need to improve over that performance to beat this field and he loses the services of Rosario.
He's done some very nice work racing over turf, and this Melnyk-hombred has to be considering an interesting player in this spot, even if he is making his first start since June 2012; he proved that he was graded stakes caliber when last seen and now he shows up for the Pletcher barn.
Cheyenne Nation
He's been a consistent performer throughout his career and have to respect what he's done in his three most recent races since being returned from a long layoff; nevertheless, this might prove to be a tough step up in class for him.
Tiz Gianni
Not wild about what he's been doing lately, but he's run well enough over turf in the past to suggest that he can jump up with a competitive performance in this spot, and it's tough to ignore him while going out for Jacobson and Castellano.
Divine Child
His better races have been run over dirt, something to consider if this race has to be moved to the main track, and he's really going to need to step it up over what's he's shown in his two turf starts in order to have a say in the outcome; Vargas has won with 7 of 9 (78%) mounts for this barn in 2013.
Film Shot
Multiple graded stakes placed colt has every bit the look of a top contender in this spot, but he has been known to settle for minor awards; winner from latest won next out at Sar on 8/26 going 1m over turf vs, 25k OPC's with a 95 Beyer.
One More Cat
He's run well since being placed over turf four starts ago and he's faced some strong competition in his two most recent races; note that he was an easy winner in his one start over the Belmont Park turf.
Mia Poppy
One of two signed on in here for the Jacobson barn and this gelding looks like he's going to break running in an attempt to lead this field every step of the way; he can be a tough out on the front end on his best day and he's won half of his eight starts over the Belmont turf.
Don Dulce
A couple of horses in the main body of this race have shown some ability racing over dirt, but this would be a decent spot for this stakes winner to land in if this race gets taken off the turf; he's won three of his last five starts, including a couple of fine performances over the main track here.
Spa City Fever
A little concerned by what this stakes winner has shown in his two most recent races after a strong run in his first start for this barn three races ago, but he's clearly a good fit at this level of competition, and he would obviously be very tough to deal with if he shows up with one of his better efforts.-Brian Pochman