02/17/2011 3:47PM

2011 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 18

Marcel Langevin/Vassar Photography
Silver Medallion gives jockey Russell Baze his third consecutive El Camino Real Derby victory.

Who's hot

Silver Medallion and Anthony’s Cross scored victories on Saturday in Kentucky Derby preps in which heavy favorites were defeated, and thus moved their way onto the top 20 of Derby Watch. Silver Medallion, the El Camino Real Derby winner, is 30-1 on the future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, and Anthony’s Cross, who won the Robert Lewis, is 40-1. Watchmaker also knocked the unbeaten Brethren down to 15-1 from last week’s 20-1 following his victory in the Sam Davis Stakes.

Who's not

Tapizar, who ran poorly in the Lewis and subsequently was found to be injured, is off the list, as is Tiz Blessed, whose 3-year-old debut has been delayed because of illness last month. Comma to the Top, the fourth choice on Watchmaker’s line at 12-1 last week, is now 25-1 after failing as the favorite in the El Camino Real Derby.

On the bubble

The Factor can move onto the list with a big performance on Sunday in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, a race in which he is expected to run. That would be his first start since setting a six-furlong track record at Santa Anita on Dec. 26. Astrology and Stay Thirsty, both accomplished 2-year-olds who have yet to start this year, are also waiting in the wings.

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