Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 16 at Del Mar.
Brad Free’s top picks for each race (posted Thursday)
Brad Free’s analysis of top races (posted Friday)
Betting strategies (tickets you can play) based on the analysis (posted Friday)
Tickets for multi-leg tickets (posted Friday)
Picks, analysis, and suggested wagers are made prior to raceday scratches.
Exclusive insights by brad Free | Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
Exclusive insights by Brad Free | Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
6-Roman Empress
1-Putt for Dough
3-Unwritten Code
7-Outer Sunset
Program favorite #3 Unwritten Code finished last or next-to-last in her three most-recent starts. She is not attractive at 5-2 odds, even if she does figure to make the lead in this claiming sprint for fillies and mares. If the favorite wins, we lose. Unwritten Code looks vulnerable.
Del Mar horse-for-course #6 Roman Empress is down a notch off a decent third-place finish; #1 Putt for Dough was re-claimed last out by her former trainer who already won three races with the filly. Roman Empress at 7-2 and Putt for Dough at 8-1 are the keys.
Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta ($1 minimum) and $18 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that mostly singles a 4-1 "longshot" in the third race.
7-Bad Uncle Barry
8-Regal Patriot
10-Anmer Hall
2-Our Bucky Charm
#7 Bad Uncle Barry is obvious in this N1X turf sprint based on his runner-up finish last out in a similar five-furlong turf allowance. The knock is Bad Uncle Barry hung the length of the lane as the favorite. But he ran well. His last four turf sprints produced two wins, and two seconds. Bad Uncle Barry should fire again as the 3-1 favorite; he has tactical speed for a good trip forwardly placed just off the leaders.
A pair of runners at higher odds command respect. #8 Regal Patriot, listed 8-1, wired Cal-bred turf sprinters last out, his eighth win from 16 starts. #10 Anmer Hall, listed 10-1, is a late-runner on a speed-friendly turf-sprint course. However, this race is loaded with gas. The pace could be extreme. Anmer Hall will be rolling late.
Betting strategy is mainly for the sake of action. It’s a $10 play in the exacta, centered on Bad Uncle Barry, Regal Patriot and Anmer Hall.
6-Sendit Mo
5-Chapter One
1-Falcon Jet
2-Litmus Test
#6 Sendit Mo, who finished last as the favorite in his debut, is the play in this dirt sprint for 2yo maidens. He had excuses first out. His jockey said he did not handle the turf; Sendit Mo runs Saturday on the dirt track where he has trained well. Secondly, trainer Peter Milelr said Sendit Mo displaced. He could not get his air. That issue can be corrected by an equipment change including tongue-tie adjustment. Sendit Mo at 4-1 is a key play and single in the pick three that began in the opener.
The program favorite is Bob Baffertt-trained firster #2 Litmus Test. Not sure if five and one-half furlongs is far enough. Listed at unappealing 7-5 odds, Litmus Test is a toss due to negligible value. #1 Falcon Jet ran well finishing second in his debut two weeks ago; #5 Chapter One has worked well and is bred to win early.
Betting strategy this race is a win bet on Sendit Mo, and a $20 play in the double ($2 min) that mostly keys Sendit Mo in race 3, and Padel Addict in race 4.
7-Padel Addict
3-Got the Ring
4-Dats Ms. Blame
1-Kizazi
It looks like #7 Padel Addict is making a parallel class move from maiden race in Ireland to maiden race in California. But the truth is, Padel Addict is dropping in class for her U.S. debut following a fourth-place finish in Ireland.
The maiden race Padel Addict exits was no ordinary maiden race. The winner won a G2 next out; the runner-up won a pair of G2s and finished second in a G1; the third-place finisher later won a maiden race and a listed stakes race. Padel Addict has a solid series of local workouts for trainer Phil D’Amato. She should fire. She probably won’t be as high as her 7-2 program price.
#3 Got the Ring was best last out in a similar maiden turf mile. She broke last, lost position, raced far back, and finished well. This race looks like a two-horse affair. Maybe one horse if Padel Addict runs as expected.
Betting strategy is a win bet on Padel Addict and $13.50 play in the middle pick four (50-cent min) that begins this race. The pick four begins and ends with singles – Padel Addict in race 4, and Mystic Moses in race 7.
8-Lil' Boom Boom
2-Misty Muppet
1-Eltonsingsanother
7-Wild Cat Danzing
This $25k claiming sprint for N2L fillies and mares is a scramble. #8 Lil’ Boom Boom is favored off her runner-up finish last out vs. similar, but she is no bargain at 5-2. Pass race. No bets.
4-Gypsy Woman
11-Rugelach
10-The White Lady
6-Laudatory
Another messy race, this N1X turf route for fillies and mares offers only minimal value. Top choice #4 Gypsy Woman returns from a layoff with sharp works and proven form on the DMR turf incluiding a N1X win here last summer. She is entered for the $50k optional claim tag and should fire first start back. She is another 5-2 favorite with negligible value.
#11 Rugelach is a horse for course dropping from a N2X comeback. She has only one option from the outside post – take the lead and try to steal it; she is 4-for-5 on DMR turf. #10 The White Lady finished second both U.S. starts this spring at Santa Anita. She probably wants farther than a mile and a sixteenth, but she will be finishing.
Betting strategy in this race is strictly for the sake of action. It’s a token $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists on a win by one of the top three choices, with longshots #8 She’s a Joker and #9 Drum Roll added underneath.
2-Mystic Moses
8-Can't Help Myself
4-Ocean Bear
5-Ride the Tiger
#2 Mystic Moses is “supposed to” win this dirt sprint for Cal-bred maiden 2yos, based on his runner-up finish last out behind subsequent stakes winner Sammy Davis. Mystic Moses is quicker than main rival #8 Can’t Help Myself, a runner-up last out while chasing slower fractions than Mystic Moses.
Betting strategy is a win bet on Mystic Moses and $13 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists Mystic Moses finish first or second.
10-Thought Process
7-Will Then
5-Lush Lips
1-Slick
#10 Thought Process looks tough in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Potential lone speed, Thought Process has a pace advantage over late-runners #7 Will Then and #5 Lush Lips. Thought Process is a three-time winner over the DMR course, she has trained well since raced and should be long gone as the 8-5 program favorite.
Lush Lips is in from Kentucky; her last-out stakes win compares well to Thought Process, but she is not as quick as the favorite. Will Then, third in her comeback at one mile, benefits by the extra distance of this mile and one-eighth race. The dilemma is how to bet? One could take the short price on Thought Process, but 8-5 is no bargain. However, a pair of 15-1 longshots have a chance to slip into exacta and/or trifecta. They are #1 Slick and #8 Firenze Flavor.
Slick finished a closing third in an allowance comeback, and has moved forward off the race. She’ll rally late. Firenze Flavor also finished well last out in a slow-pace race. Firenze Flavor will rally; her trainer Paddy Gallagher posted two of the biggest Del Mar Oaks upsets in the past 20 years: Red Lark ($40.20) in 2020 and Magical Fantasy ($87) in 2008.
Betting strategy mostly keys Thought Process on top in a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min), along with a $14 play in the trifecta (50-cent min). Both wagers insist that longshots Slick or Firenze Flavor finish in the money. A $36 play in the late pick three ($3 min) also is suggested.
7-Contrary Chieftain
3-Joint Venture
4-Get Her Number
5-Zimba Warrior
This $12.5k claiming route is similar to race 1 – a vulnerable favorite dropping off a bad race. #4 Get Her Number, a G1 winner as a 2yo in 2020, is nearing the end. Now a 7-year-old, he drops from $32k to $12.5k. He could win, but he’s not the horse he once was. Pass on the chalk.
#7 Contrary Chieftain was in the wrong race last time, a turf allowance from an outside post and he had no shot. He finished last. Now he returns to dirt, drops in class, and has speed to set or press the pace. #3 Joint Venture was claimed off a disappointing effort last out. He drops one notch; his runner-up finishes against better company this spring at Santa Anita put him in the hunt.
Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta that tosses the favorite, and a $30 play in the late double ($5 min).
2-Toes
3-The Mizen Queen
4-For Arrogate
10-Auntie
#2 Toes won’t be as high as her 10-1 morning line in this maiden turf route. Her sixth-place comeback was very good. She needed the start, and actually made a menacing move into the lane before she flattened out. Not bad for the maiden filly’s first start in 10 months. Toes is worth a win bet at the right price.