New Beyer Record, Tons of Questions

Fast debut races run in MACLEAN'S MUSIC's family. 

His sire, Distorted Humor, won his career debut as a 3-year-old of 1996, taking a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 5 1/2 lengths with an 86 Beyer. 

His dam, Forest Music, scored first-out at Laurel as a juvenile filly of 2003.  She won her six-furlong maiden special weight  by eight lengths with a 105 Beyer.  Forest Music would go on to prevail in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss Handicap at six furlongs at Saratoga.

Forest Music's half-brother, Shooter, won his juvenile debut going 5 1/2 furlongs at Monmouth in 2000.  The margin was 8 1/4 lenghs and the Beyer settled at 89.  Shooter won the Grade 3 Sapling at six furlongs in his second start.

Forest Music's sire, Unbridled's Song, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 1995, dominated his debut going six furlongs at Saratoga by 8 1/2 lengths with a 92 Beyer.

Maclean's Music eclipsed them all.  A $900,000 RNA as a yearling, the 3-year-old colt zipped six furlongs in 1:07.44 at Santa Anita on Saturday afternoon, receiving a 114 Beyer, the highest debut number since the speed figures were published in Daily Racing Form.

It's safe to say that we can add another fast 3-year-old to the list of talented sophomores.

Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (March 14 - March 20):

1.  Maclean's Music - 114 - Md Sp Wt 55k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
2.  Hilda's Passion - 108 - Inside Information Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3.  Chief of Affairs - 106 - Hot Springs Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
4.  Havre de Grace - 105 - Azeri Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
5.  The Factor - 103 - Rebel Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
6.  Bridgetown - 98 - Alw 66400NC - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
6.  Saint Isabelle - 98 -  OC 62k/N2X-N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
8.  Decelerator - 97 - OC 50k/C-N - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
8.  Mindy Queen  - 97 - OC 50k/N3X-N - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
8.  Regally Ready - 97 - Joe Hernandez Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
11. Digger - 96 - OC 50k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
11. Irrefutable - 96 - Alw 62940N2X - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
11. Movin' Out - 96 - Bensalem Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
14. Doubles Partner - 95 - Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) - 1 1 1/6 Miles (Turf) - Tampa Bay
14. Mildly Offensive - 95 - Santa Paula Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
16. Future Prospect - 94 - OC 40k/N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Turfway
17. Carbon Hoofprint (GB) - 93 - Alw 40000s - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
17. Juniper Pass - 93 - San Luis Rey Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles - Santa Anita
19. La Reine Lionne - 92 - Alw 25000s -  1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
19. Leavenworth - 92 - Clm 20000(20-15)N3L - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
19. Malibu Pier - 92 - Santa Ana Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
19. Silver Magnus - 92 - OC 16k/N1X-N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
23. Bandbox - 91 - Private Terms Stakes - 1 Mile - Laurel
23. Frazil - 91 - Hcp 10000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
23. Strategic Move - 91 - Alw 50000s - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct

Maclean's Music's past performance line is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Who do you think gave the best performance last week?  Mike Beer and I give our opinions, and you can vote at the below link:

http://www.drf.com/news/weekend-stakes-preview-videos

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Here are the top Beyers from the previous week (March 3 - March 13):

1.  Tackleberry - 103 - Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
2.  Caixa Eletronica - 102 - OC c-62k/N2X - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
3.  Amazing - 100 - OC 100k/C-N - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
3.  Inherit the Gold - 100 - King's Point Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
3.  Ryehill Dreamer (Ire) - 100 - Alw 67180N3X - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
6.  Eagle Putt - 96 - OC 40k/N2X-N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Fair Grounds
6.  Miss Match (Arg) - 96 - Santa Margarita Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Santa Anita
6.  Premier Pegasus - 96 - San Felipe Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
6.  Successful Mission - 96 - Alw 53400C - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
10.  Denomination - 94 - Hillsborough Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Tampa Bay
10.  Hermosillo - 94 - OC 35k/N3L - 1 Mile 7- Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
10.  It Happened Again - 94 - Razorback Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
10.  Street Car - 94 - Clm 16000(16-14) - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
10.  Winter Camp - 94 - Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Sunland
15. Mister Marti Gras - 93 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
15. Saint Daimon - 93 - OC 35k/N3L - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
17. Golddigger's Boy - 92 - Alw 59520N2X - 1 Mile - Parx
17. Sherlock - 92 - OC 12k/C-N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
19. Avenging Spirit - 91 - Alw 46800N1X - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
19. Cambina (Ire) - 91 - China Doll Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
19. El Martillo - 91 - OC 62k/N2X-N - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
19. Goggles McCoy - 91 - Alw 48360NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
19. Ravi's Song - 91 - New Orleans Ladies Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
19. Suyeta - 91 - OC 50k/C-N - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
25. Firm Resolve - Clm 20000(20-15)B - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
25. Lunada Bay - Alw 60160N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
25. Redeemed - Md Sp Wt 42k - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
25. Sunshine Rambler - Clm 32000 - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream

Tackleberry's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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BTW, anyone know when Astrology will run next?
Del Mar Dennis

DRF's Mary Rampellini notes that Astrology will run in Sunday's Sunland Derby.  Click on the link below for the entire story:

http://www.drf.com/news/sunland-derby-lures-astrology-supreme-ruler

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Dan (or any other fellow bloggers),
I just started looking at the Oaks futures pp's and was impressed with her one and only race, so I pulled up the video on calracing.com and was just super impressed with Royal Delta's maiden win at Belmont. I also like her breeding. Might be worth a few bucks at 25/1, but obviously have some concerns. She does not have much seasoning, but I was also wondering if anyone had any info on her. Did Mott just back off of her to prepare for a run at 3yr-old stakes races, or was she hurt? Any known plans for her? What prep(s) are on the schedule for her? Is she even pointing to the Oaks. I did not find much after googling her. Any help would be appreciated. I am now adding her to my watch list.
Dale

Royal Delta ran a disappointing ninth in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on March 12 (56 Beyer).  Considering her pedigree (Empire Maker - Delta Princess), I wouldn't be surprised if she winds up on grass down the road.

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Dan I would like 2 scratch ambessa Pp's &
Add ongoing mister & avenging force the horse
Who beat king glorious if u can thanks.
Marc

The past performances for Ongoing Mister and Avenging Force are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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It's rather peculiar that many players, including Dan, have noted that there was obviously a major near-disastrous bumping incident, yet they could not find fault with any of the 3 runners, including TC. That's why I expressed some puzzlement over Dan's statement that the non-call was the right call. I mean, something obviously happened... how could it be a blameless event? That doesn't necessarily mean there should've been a DQ... but it doesn't explain why the non-call was correct, but the DQ would've been wrong. Why not the other way around? If the reverse call was made, would that have been seen as the right decision?
C

The bumping incident in the Santa Anita Handicap was certainly not a "blameless event."  There was definitely an incident so, obviously, there is someone to blame for causing the problem. 
The issue is deciding, conclusively, who was to blame.  Where is the definitive evidence to support that Horse X, instead of Horses Y and Z, was the one at fault?
There was a smoking gun, but who pulled the trigger?  Is it possible that all three had hoofprints on the gun? Some have said that we shouldn't treat this as a "plaintiff" vs. "defendant" issue, but when one rider claims foul against another, the claimant becomes the plaintiff because he/she feels wronged.  The stewards' job is to mete out a "punishment" for the "crime".  Was there a foul?  Yes.  Who was the perpetrator?  I don't think there's enough evidence to convict anyone.  Hence, if I'm a steward, I can't take anyone down.

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Dan
Some questions.
Is there a place on the DRF website where I can find the full conditions for the race for the entries? Today, Wednesday, under the DRF entries tab, the 7th at GP is listed as a $25,000 OPEN race, when it is really open only to non winners of three lifetime and a claiming price of $30,000 to $25,000. I guess I just get too excited when there is a truly open, no conditions, allowance or high class claimer.
Quite often in your analyses you will mention that a horse was a vet scratch on such and such a date. Where do you get that information? If it isn't your own records can I get it also?
Ron Zuercher

Ron Z,
Here is where I get my scratch information, including the reason for the scratch:
http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=LN
Here are the entries with the complete conditions:
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/index.html?SAP=LN
Steve T

Ron, I also get my vet scratches from the "SCRATCH BOARD" function either in the print copy of the DRF, or online (comes with the classic past performances), and then note them in my Formulator for future reference.

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Dan,
Glad to see the Big Cap back on dirt where it belongs, despite all the controversy. Commenter "C" makes a good case in that a DQ of Game on Dude would have probably been received with much less controversy. That said, I still think the stewards made the right call.
I saw that Game on Dude had a Beyer of 99. Just curious, how does that compare to Big Cap's past? I imagine there have been very few under 100.
Steve D

Here are the Beyer Speed Figures for the Big 'Cap since 1990:

1990:  Ruhlmann - 118
1991:  Farma Way - 118
1992:  Best Pal - 123
1993:  Sir Beaufort - 112
1994:  Stuka - 109 (The Wicked North finished first, but was disqualified and placed fourth)
1995:  Urgent Request - 113
1996:  Mr. Purple - 112
1997:  Siphon - 120
1998:  Malek - 108
1999:  Free House - 119
2000:  General Challenge - 117
2001:  Tiznow - 117
2002:  Milwaukee Brew - 118
2003:  Milwaukee Brew - 116
2004:  Southern Image - 113
2005:  Rock Hard Ten - 107
2006:  Lava Man - 113
2007:  Lava Man - 109
2008:  Heatseeker - 110
2009:  Einstein - 103
2010:  Misremembered - 104
2011:  Game On Dude - 99

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stupid question...but enjoy looking at old PP's, and looking at Drew Drew above, his lifetime lists 8 wins, and his dirt wins list 9--and I dont see any DQ that put him first, or anything that would explain that. what am I missing?
Life 35 8 5 3 $36,569 78
D.Fst 32 9 5 2 $32,463 7
Lindsay

All in all, Drew Drew raced 38 times with 10 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds.  In the LIFE box of DRF, his record stands at 35 starts, 8 wins, 5 seconds, and 3 thirds.  The three missing races in the LIFE box are omitted because Drew Drew raced three times in "Mixed" heats (open to quarter horses as well as thoroughbreds).  He won two of those races, but only thoroughbred races are included in the LIFE box.

***

Dan, could you please post past performances for Pleasantly Perfect.
For a horse that won some $7M in his career, I've always thought he was pretty underrated.
Honestly, what are your thoughts on him?
Paseana

Pleasantly Perfect's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.  I was a fan of his as he was a true 1 1/4-mile horse in an era where that sort of stamina is rare.  My favorite horse from that time period was Medaglia d'Oro.  I felt he was the best nine-furlong horse in the country at the time while Pleasantly Perfect was best at 10 panels.  Of course, Pleasantly Perfect got the better of Medaglia d'Oro in both the Dubai World Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic, both at 1 1/4 miles. 

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Dan,
Ever since he was claimed by Pletcher, Calibrachoa has been a coupled entry. Why is this?
ALF

Calibrachoa has raced three times since the Pletcher claim.  He is owned by the Repole Stable as was his stablemate on March 5 (Have You Ever), January 22 (Driven by Success, scratched), and December 18 (Driven by Success).  Common ownership necessitates coupled entries.

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Dan,
in Beyer's book Picking winners he does not list all the distances and beaten lenths for 4.5 furlongs, 1 mile 40 yrds 1 mile 70 yrs 11 furlongs 12 furlongs and Raw Beyers for the Turf. Do you know where I can get this for handicapping purposes? Thanks, you have my e-mail
Tony

In both BEYER ON SPEED and THE WINNING HORSEPLAYER, he has speed charts for 1 Mile and 70 Yards, but not for the other distances you requested.

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Dan,
I would really like to see pp's for Charon, Jumron, Quintana
If possible Taco's Car Phone.
Thanks,
Pete

The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Hey Dan
was wondering if yoiu could the past performances of Champion handicap horse - Stymie
Big Manny

Stymie's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Dan,
The stats for Mike Mitchell 1st off claim in the DRF reads (37 .35 $2.57), How far back, in terms of years or months, does this stat go?
Thank you
Pippen0707

Pippen0707
I'm a Mitchell fan in general, and especially 1st off a claim, as many are, I'm sure. I will answer for Dan-the stat covers from the beginning of calendar 2010, and will be used and updated throughout this year. So by the end of this year it will be two years worth of data. In January next year, 2010 will be dropped from the data history and only 2011 and 2012 will be included.
blackstone

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But I'll give you a new question. Twirling Candy ran 1:19.70 for 7f, breaking the track record of Spectacular Bid, who ran 1:20. The 2007 3 year best times show the best time for 2004/05/06 as 1:20 also. Who ran that?
Thanks again
TejanoRun

Bob Black Jack ran 1:20.37 over the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita on December 26, 2007.  Unfurl the Flag went 1:20.11 on dirt at "The Great Race Place" in 2004. 

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It is a great article about Alysheba. Look at how many grade 1's at a mile and a quarter this horse took down. But most of all, he was a stud and legend in his own mind....one of the proudest horses on whom I've ever laid eyes. I was privileged to spend some time with him at Monmouth and he was unbelievable in the post parade for the Iselin. To this day I have a picture of him on the wall. He was truly spectacular.
Most interesting of all, Van Berg raced him without lasix at the Iselin, just to prove he could win without it. Could you imagine a trainer taking that kind of stand now?
Dan, would you please be so kind as to post his PP's?
TBTA

Alysheba's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Cannot think of anywhere else to ask this, so I come to this comforting place.
As I was going through Formulator recently, I started going back through the charts for SA's current meet as a bit of a curiosity. I noticed that one solitary race didn't have a Beyer assigned (see 24Feb11-3SA). It was a maiden special route on the grass for three-year-olds. I thought it was a bit odd since pretty much every race does within a day or two, but not this one, and two weeks later no less.
Anyone know why that might be?
eternal_arcadia

I have the winning Beyer for that race as a 78, so I'm not sure why it didn't come up in Formulator sooner.  It's there now.

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Dan, or anyone who knows,
I've noticed some horses have been training at SLF. Can someone enlighten me? I've not heard of it.
knm

knm
I'm just taking a guess, but SLF may be Solera Farm in Williston FL
SR Vegas

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I just saw a horse go down at the finish of the Santa Margarita race at Santa Anita - I was watching on Cal Racing and there was no mention of the horse and rider. Does anyone know what happened?
AnneM

Always a Princess suffered a serious sesamoid injury in the Santa Margarita, but she underwent surgery and seems to be doing well.  If she continues to progress, she will be bred later this Spring or next year.

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Dan,
What in the world is up with RAIL TRIP? Didn't see him on the Disabled List, but no works in forever.
Steve T

He's had so many problems with his right front foot.  After the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a race in which Rail Trip wore an aluminum pad, Richard Dutrow sent Rail Trip to the Rood and Riddle Equine Clinic in Kentucky for a nuclear scan.  The word is that he has an issue with the frog on his foot. 

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Dan,
Can you post what the Jockey/Trainer Combo of G.Gomez and B. Mott is for the last several years. I just read that Gomez is picking up the mount on To Honor and Serve and I think he is one of the few horses that can beat Uncle Mo at this point anyway in the Ky Derby. I would like to know what kind of success they had together in the past. Thank you
furlongs

From Formulator Web, here are the numbers for the Gomez and Mott team:

PAST YEAR:  3-25, 12% winners, $0.88 ROI
PAST 2 YEARS:  7-45, 16% winners, $1.05 ROI
PAST 3 YEARS:  8-54, 15% winners, $1.01 ROI
PAST 4 YEARS:  14-90, 16% winners, $1.14 ROI
PAST 5 YEARS:  19-112, 17% winners, $1.31 ROI

Winners include Majestic Warrior (Grade 1 Hopeful), Go Between (Grade 1 Pacific Classic, Grade 2 Virginia Derby, Sunshine Millions Classic), My Typhoon (Grade 2 Ballston Spa Handicap), Z Humor (Grade 3 Delta Jackpot), Courageous Cat (Grade 3 Canadian Turf Handicap), Indescribable (Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Distaff), and Quite a Bride (Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf).

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Dan, Could you post the PPs of an old time Chicago favorite: Maxwell G.? I understand he was still winning at age 16. Thanks!
Sandra

I don't have all of his races, but you'll notice below that he did win at age 16 (he was a foal of 1961).

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Hey Dan,
Not sure if this is too invasive or PH taboo, but how much money do you wager on an average day at the races?
If that's not a suitable question, I'm also curious how you divide your bankroll. Is most of it allocated to multi-race wagers? Or do you focus more on intra-race betting?
TheVanGogh

I'm a bit uncomfortable getting into dollar amounts, but it fluctuates wildly from day to day and, especially, from meet to meet.  Since I really enjoy playing juvenile maiden races, the majority of my action occurs during the summer and fall months (think Saratoga, Del Mar, etc.).  If I have a really strong opinion, I don't have a problem dropping the hammer on a good-priced horse to win.  Mostly, however, I try to string together Pick 4's and other multi-race bets around the maiden races that I fancy. 
In order for one to thrive in this game, one needs to make scores.  Playing an overlaid runner to win, on an occasional basis, may be a way to survive, but it is very difficult (especially considering the onerous takeout) to grind out a profit race-by-race.  The majority of my bankroll goes into multi-race wagers.  One of the selfish reasons for starting the HandiGambling exercises was to get better at intra-race wagers, but I still feel more comfortable keying and spreading in Pick 4's, etc.
Thankfully, I have a great amount of patience and don't feel the need to bet every race.  Therefore, I could go days, or even weeks, without making a single bet until I find an opportunity that I feel strongly about (Mike Beer calls me "Straw Hat Illman").  Then, I don't have a problem going all-in.

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Sorry if this has been asked and answered recently, but i have trouble visiting this blog as much as i'd like: what are Al Stall's plans for Bind? Did i miss a non-winners of 1 other than allowance score or has it not happened yet? My guess (and it's just a guess) would be the Derby Trial might be in his future. Any thoughts on the chance of that? I watched his maiden score (and cashed a nice pick 4 by singling him) and was truly amazed. Horses just don't go 1:08 and 4 at the Fairgrounds very often, especially not maidens. I think the sky is the limit for this horse and we all know that Stall will take his time with him
raitchjay

Bind, an impressive debut winner at Fair Grounds on February 19, is listed as the 2-5 morning line favorite in Saturday's third race at Fair Grounds, an entry-level optional claimer at 1 mile and 70 yards.  Bind is not yet nominated to the Triple Crown series, but another big performance may have Al Stall thinking about bigger pots.  I'm guessing, as of now, that he'll remain very patient with this promising horse.  He's one to watch in races like the Travers.

***

I have been meaning to ask this question for a while but this HG provides an opportunity. Maidens are far from my comfort level and usually pass them when possible.
My question is what stat do you rely on more, the trainer with high first and second out runners or sires first out and early win numbers. Do you give more credence to a high stat trainer with a low stat sire, or can a high win early sire overcome a poor trainer record.
mpm101

It's an excellent question.  In a perfect world, you would have healthy percentages all around. 
I wouldn't invest heavily in either situation that you mentioned.  If a horse has a strong win-early pedigree, but is trained by a conditioner that rarely scores first-out, I'd stay away as the horse may be out for an experience run.
I'd also avoid a firster that boasts low-percentage bloodlines, but debuts for a high-percentage trainer.  These horses are often overbet due to the connections. 
I wouldn't say I rely on one stat higher than the other.  A healthy mix is just what the doctor orders in this situation.

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Dan
You usually print the winning e-mail for the HandiGambling but did not this week. What wager won the prize? As always, thanks for your great work!
DSully

HG224 Winning Bet (Steve T)
#8 DUBAI YOU XYZ is going to be one tough cookie for a while to come and he is improving with every race. He is impervious to jostling, bumping and being in tight, comes with a killer rush at the end and this guy can run all day on turf. I will use #7 BOGIE to fill the exacta; he has always been a very good turfer and I think he is a different horse off the layoff and this will be his 2nd off of that layoff.
HANDINGAMBLING BET: $100 Exacta #8 Dubai You XYZ/#7 BOGIE

HG 225 Winning Bet (Micheal Cook)
HandiGambling 224.........
I declared my play yesterday, but it included two AE's. It looks as if these won't be entered based on the early changes. Thus I am modifying my original play.
I am keying Frontside in a $16.65 part-wheel trifecta as follows:
1 / 2, 4, 12 / 2, 4, 12
for a $99.90 investment.
Thanks,
M. Cook

HG Results:
The inquiry sign is up on the HG Results, as Micheal Cook made an illegal denomination of $16.65 for his trifecta. Dan gave me some options on what to do, but said it was my call. I decided that if Micheal Cook would have used only $16 (instead of $16.65) for his trifecta, he still would have won the tiebreaker, because he posted before Taz. So therefore he stands as the winner. Taz finishes second, Jim Peregoy third.
tencentcielo

Congrats to Micheal Cook for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  He chooses race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs on Friday for this week's event.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all!