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It's questionable whether MIDNIGHT TRANSFER will successfully stretch out around two turns, but the 3-year-old was pretty impressive in winning the $82,000 San Pedro Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs over the Santa Anita main track.
Shuffled back to last on the inside turning for home, Midnight Transfer eased out for the drive under Joel Rosario and gradually wore down pacesetting GOT EVEN to win by a head. By Hard Spun, the runner-up of the 2007 Kentucky Derby and winner of the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at seven panels, Midnight Transfer, an $80,000 juvenile purchase, is out of Grade 3 route winner French Satin (won the Florida Oaks at 1 1/16 miles). French Satin is a half-sister to Lion Heart, the second-place finisher of the 2004 Kentucky Derby and winner of both the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity and Grade 1 Haskell Invitational around two turns. Another of her half-siblings, Connemara, won the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at nine furlongs over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields.
After the San Pedro, Midnight Transfer's trainer, Carla Gaines, indicated the Grade 2 San Felipe at 1 1/16 miles on March 10 as a possible next option.
***
FRUMIOUS, on the other hoof, may be headed to Dubai for the Group 1 Golden Shaheen. Perhaps he was aided by the scratch of Eclipse champion Amazombie, but Frumious blew the doors off his rivals from gate to wire in the Grade 2 Palos Verdes Stakes. Trained by Jeff Bonde, Frumious owns three wins over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate and would try that ground if he were to ship to Meydan for the Golden Shaheen.
***
The Bob Baffert-trained CASTAWAY has really turned things around since being stretched out around two turns. A disappointment in his first four sprint starts, Castaway finished third in his route debut on December 30 before graduating with an 89 Beyer at 1 1/16 miles over "wet-fast" ground on January 21. Castaway is by Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Kentucky Derby and Travers winner Street Sense and sold for $435,000 as a yearling. His dam (by Storm Cat) won at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass, but is a half-sister to Master Command (multiple Grade 2 winner at nine furlongs) and Aurora Lights (multiple Grade 3 route winner).
***
An under-the-radar sophomore is JUNEBUGRED, the winner of the $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park for trainer David Fawkes. A $20,000 yearling purchase by Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and Metropolitan Handicap hero Corinthian, Junebugred is a half-brother to stakes-winning miler Joe Six Pack. The dam was Grade 2-placed at 1 Mile and 70 Yards for Nick Zito. If Junebugred doesn't turn out to be a classic prospect, his pedigree indicates that he could turn out to be a good middle-distance prospect.
***
Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing action (1/16/12 - 1/22/12):
1. FRUMIOUS - 105 - Palos Verdes Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
2. INHERIT THE GOLD - 104 - Haynesfield Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
3. THISKYHASNOLIMIT - 101 - Louisiana Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
4. GANTRY - 98 - F. W. Gaudin Memorial Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
5. MR. VEGAS - 97 - Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
6. NORVSKY - 96 - San Gabriel Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
6. TRULY INSPIRED - 96 - Alw 5000s - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Oaklawn
8. RED'S ROUND TABLE - 95 - OC 50k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
9. ANTELOPE RIDGE - 94 - Clm c-5000 - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Oaklawn
9. BERRY KNOLL - 94 - Alw 40500N1X - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
9. CHIEF OF AFFAIRS - 94 - OC c-35k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
9. COYOTE LEGEND - 94 - Star of Texas Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Sam Houston
9. VAMO A GALUPIAR (Chi) - 94 - Megahertz Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
14. MIDNIGHT TRANSFER - 93 - San Pedro Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
14. SIMBA'S STORY - 93 - Alw 42500N1X - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
16. BIG GRANDPA - 92 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
16. INCLUDE ME OUT - 92 - La Canada Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
16. INSPIRED - 92 - Pan Zareta Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Fair Grounds
16. LEAVE OF ABSENCE - 92 - OC 35k/N3L -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
16. QUINTONS DESTINY - 92 - Clm c-(25-22.5)N2L - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
21. ABSINTHE MINDED - 91 - Pippin Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
21. BELIEVE YOU CAN - 91 - Silverbulletday Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
21. GLEAMING - 91 - American Beauty Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
21. MR. BOSSY PANTS - 91 - Clm c-(32-28) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
21. TONTO FONTENOT - 91 - Clm 25000(25-20)N3L - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
*FRUMIOUS' lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*ANTELOPE RIDGE was claimed for $5,000 by trainer Rusty Hellman from Chris Richard.
*CHIEF OF AFFAIRS was claimed for $35,000 by trainer Brad Cox from Bret Calhoun.
*QUINTONS DESTINY was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Janet Armstrong from Mike Mitchell.
*MR. BOSSY PANTS was claimed for $32,000 by trainer Robertino Diodoro from Mike Mitchell.
***
DAN LOVE YOUR BLOG. IN THE MID TO LATE 1970s GLEN HILD TRAINED A FILLY NAMED SHARKS JAWS ON THE EAST COAST. SHE WAS INVOLVED IN A MIX-UP AND THE WRONG HORSE RAN IN A RACE BECAUSE THE GROOM SWITCHED STALLS OF WHILE TAKING HORSES OFF THE HOTWALKING MACHINE AT KEYSTONE RACETRACK. BOTH HORSES LOOKED SIMILAR AND NEITHER HAD A LIP TATOO.SHARKS JAWS WENT ON TO BE A STAKES WINNER AND I THINK SHE PRODUCED A NICE RUNNER AS A BROODMARE, BUT I CAN'T REMEMBER ITS NAME. CAN YOU HELP ME OUT.
THANKS JIM M.
Shark's Jaws produced a few blacktype earners. Her foal of 1979, Wyetown (by Al Hattab), finished third in the Icecapade Stakes at Delaware (lifetime record of 113-18-12-14, $108,872). Two years later, she foaled Raja's Shark (by Raja Baba), a gelding that went on to win the Grade 3 Jamaica Handicap at Belmont and Grade 3 Sport Page Handicap at Aqueduct (lifetime record of 45-13-11-11, $673,977). Her foal of 1990, With a Wink, won the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap (20-6-0-4, $233,880).
With a Wink has also done well as a broodmare, foaling multiple stakes-winner Jena Jena (14-6-2-2, $272,888), stakes-winner Up Like Thunder (9-2-2-0, $113,202) and stakes-winner Win With a Wink (7-3-0-0, $126,380).
***
Dan, can you post pp's for Lotta Kim?
Andrew
Lotta Kim's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog posting. She, of course, is best known as the dam of Rachel Alexandra.
***
Came Home a son of Gone West won the 10f Pacific Classic as a 3yr old over a dirt main track I think . I admit I could be wrong about that, buttZ... I don't think so ? LSD what can you tell us about the surface Came Home won the Pacific Classic over ??
blackseabass
Came Home only raced on dirt in his career.
***
Congrats to Curt V. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. Let's go with Thursday's sixth race at Santa Anita for this week's event.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| Frumious.pdf | 59.9 KB |
| LottaKim.pdf | 573.09 KB |
| HG268.pdf | 133.43 KB |
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Annie
Thank you for the information and words of encouragement during these times of high anxiety. I'm actually glad to hear that they are taking their time with him (Currency Swap).
Dick W
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Dan / All,
Apologies for my 4th post in 12 hours. but can someone please explain an oddity in the ENTRIES pages.
Race 1 at Aqueduct is shown as a Claiming race (Claims $15,000). But the Purse Value is shown in £s, not Dollars, as are the claim figures against each horse. This is repeated in other races.
Am I dreaming (and I have NOT been to the Pub), or have the Brits bought the DRF?
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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HG268:
Congrats to Ski and an interesting race. I usually do not like the rail in 7f races, but I O'Neill's numbers are good and his running style fits. I also like the 8 who is logical. I will use the 3,5,7, and 9 to fill out my wagers:
$20 ex box 1,8;
$3 Tri PW 1,8/1,8/3,5,7,9;
$3 Tri PW 1,8/3,5,7,9/1,8;
$1 Sup PW 1,8/1,8/3,9/3,9.
Good luck everyone.
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268
15 trifecta 5-8/5-8/139
.10 super 5-8/5-8/1-3-9/1-3-9
.10 super 5-8/5-8/1-9/1-9
5 Tummel--Race at SA was really nice in October
8 Visible Marq--Baffert maiden rounding into form
Allan
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A few thoughts....now i know we have a few astute hc's here, their wanting to give themselve's the best chance to win.
Now, my well bred speed horse, who's dropping down, got an up and coming jock, and sneaky good trainer, pops the gate and wires the field......wow great HC.
Now, my same horse, breaks two steps slow, never gets lead, and is done at the quater pole.... wow bad HC.
I can HC my azz off, but if the horse is pinched back, carried five wide, don't like the track... is that bad HC, or bad luck?
We use the best tool's, ths best information, are best knowledge, and then hope for the best.
Is there luck in horseracing? Yea.....and alot of it.
So we lose alot more race's than we win, is that bad HC or bad luck? Sometimes alittle of both.
But when that seam opens up and my horse win's by a nose, is that good HC, or good luck?
Sometimes a little of both.
Have a lucky day.
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SR Vegas,
Thanks. It's always good to get props from my original "blogging buddy."
In fact, since you have not taken the Facebook plunge, twitter would be the perfect spot for you to get your feet wet because it is less time consuming and you can stay up to date on the latest breaking news and follow your favorite personalities - in general or in the horse racing world.
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"I rarely miss a viewing of O'Reilly..& especially Miller..."
i'm always amazed that people still think miller is funny - (now that he's a bitter old suburban dad.)
once upon a time he was mentioned, and rightly so, right up there with greats like Kinison and Hicks, but alas, somehow, once funny people turn republican, well, it all kind of goes away...
oh well, he does, somehow, although not in any measurably funny way, make an appropriate foil for Monsieur Colbert's big Papa Bear.
inglvid rogues (I kid you not, although after one captcha switcheroo)
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HG
I think Congrats Ski will out break the field and set a blistering pace and go wire to wire. I like Baffert's animal to run a good second closing into that speed for a nice exacta
HG
100 ex 9/8
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HG 268:
$50 Exacta Box: 1-7.
Both Midnight Con and Charley Company have the speed, and both have finished within a length of the winner.
Good luck to all!!!
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HG 268 Revise
Just realized had the 5 and 7 horses backwards in my analysis and wagers. Please change my plays to.
$12 Ex 3/5=$12
$4 Ex 3/1,7,8=$12
$12 Ex 5/3=$12
$4 Ex 5/1,7,8=$12
$2 Tri Key 3/1,5,7,8=$24
$2 Tri Key 5/1,3,7,8=$24
Just in case that I should have chosen the 8 instead of the 5.
$2 Tri 3,8/3,8/5= $4
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HG 268
I've decided to make the 3 and 7 my key horses. The 3 made a good effort to move up a couple places after a slow start, chasing the speed that ran 1st and 2nd around the track. Mitchell seems to do well with new stock so why not, Rosario on fire as of late. The 7 was getting to the leader 2 back over this course, just ran out of track. Flores knows the horse, as he's ridden every start and I expect him to get there with the extra distance. I like the 1, 5, and 8 to fill in the other spots. The 1 just lost his last to a horse that got the perfect trip. The 8 ran into a monster in the last, no way he was catching him. The 5 if form transfers to dirt, think will be right there at the end, plus gets Espinoza, who's been doing pretty well lately.
Plays:
$12 Ex 3/7=$12
$4 Ex 3/1,5,8=$12
$12 Ex 7/3=$12
$4 Ex 7/1,5,8=$12
$2 Tri Key 3/1,5,7,8=$24
$2 Tri Key 7/1,3,5,8=$24
Just in case that I should have chosen the 8 instead of the 7.
$2 Tri 3,8/3,8/7= $4
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I need some breeding thoughts please. I own a single horse hair in a racing and breeding club in the UK. Our best ever horse, Soviet Song, a multi Group winner at one mile has fertility problems, and so she is being sent to mate with Speightstown, apparently a horse with a high fertilty rate. Does anyone have any views on Speightstown and on the potential match?
Keith L,
I just caught up with your post mentioning CNBC. It brought to mind a moment of madness on my part. Last year I happened upon the morning programme and saw the lovely Erin Burnett. It was love at first sight (on my part). It gets worse. I had just won a few pounds and, with no financial responsibilities, I drafted a letter inviting her to dinner in New York in exchange for a £5,000 donation to her favourite charity. Fortunately, I never had the nerve to send it. Don't worry, I am not odd, just crazy.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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FORMBLOG CONVETION UPDATE:
Here's info on making hotel reservations for the 2nd Annual Formblog Convention on March 9 - 11 at Gulfstream Park FL:
The Adventura Hampton Inn, across the street from Gulfstream Park is offering a special rate to the Formbloggers.
The special Horseman rate is a 15% discount of the best selling rate at any giving time. The hotel's usual rate is $230/night. The Horseman's rate is generally $189 per room per night, up to 4 people in the room.
Please know that the selling rates are dynamic and changes according to demand and hotel availability. Guests are able to make reservations on their own at any time by calling the hotel at (954) 874-1111 and requesting the Horseman rate.
For online booking please visit www.hamptoninnaventura.com and enter this code 0560023856 under corporate account to get the discount.
Reservations will be guaranteed based on availability only as they are not holding any rooms for our event.
If you would like to attend, please email me at: lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com by Feb. 13 so I can include you in the track seating arrangements. Our Fearless Leader Dan is graciously picking up the tab for dinner on Friday AND Saturday night, pending a bank loan approval or second mortgage on his house, whichever comes through first.
Thie above info is also available at the main IMT website: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/Formblog.html
I've sent an email to those of you who have already indicated that you will be attending.
Laura
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I'm going to try putting the last horse first in my equation since they seem to win often:
HG
3 win $74
3/1,5,7,9,8 ex $10
3/1579/8 tri's $4
3/1579/1579/8 sf $12
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Happy Thursday to all....
I have been sitting back picking my spots over the past few weeks... Playing GP, Oaklawn, and a bit of SA Park. Playing the Pick 5 along with some Pick 4"s along the way.
Annie
I am still waiting for my MKB runner Take Charge Indy to find a spot... Looks like they are cranking him up for a start in the next couple of weeks... I will be waiting and wagering depending on the price...
Keith L
Looks like you are doing well over the past 30 days or so... I don't think that the Comedy Clubs will be calling you up soon... Keep you nose in the DRF.. You seem to do better at that than the jokes. LOL...
Best of Luck to all of the players in Vegas looking for the Tiltle and the big money in the Handicapping Contest!!!! You deserve a big pat on the back just for getting there..
C
I agree with the trouble with the Off Shore accounts with money here today gone tomorrow... I have had a few accounts open, and after a winning wager, I requested a bank check to be Fed-Ex'd overnight to my house. Never had a problem. Once the trouble started, I pulled out and started going through a close friend that lives in Vegas. He would bet nothing but $100 wagers on Football, but would purchase 15 - 25 tickets around town. He gave them his information and his address in Vegas. I would send him the money to him and he would managed to stay under the radar. I have known him for 25 years and that's how it needed to be done...and yes I trust him !!!
The Patriots are a -3.5 fav to win the Superbowl. I am looking for it to drop down to -3. I feel that the New York money will be flowing in later early next week. The issue is, that Vegas doesn't want the line to stay on -3!!! It will be bad for everyone if the Pats win by -3, or if it goes to overtime and a field goal wins it for New England!!! New England is the play for me for about $2500 at -3.
Nice to see this talk of 50-1 shot's... They come up once and a while, as they did it yesterday at Tampa Bay. I think the #4 in Race #3 popped at 71-1... A $144.00 winner !!! BSB, did you have it???
I have another off subject story to follow.
Good Luck all.
Whackymacky Out!!!
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HG 258
Hooray for a MDN race!! Wish we could find a MSW and turf combo once in 2012. Oh well, if I ever win one of these I can take care of that. Don't worry, Betfair crew recommends laying that one.
Will keep this short due to time and hectic schedule. Sometimes less is more.
1) Midnight Con - moves to trainer who is below average first off claim. Back in 6 days, takes class hike, draws rail with not enough speed to clear, beaten at less than 2-1 in last two races, and now the kicker.. I used this one in last week's HG. That is the glass half empty view. Sure, he has shot but I will not consider for win honors.
3)Towering - he does loom large in here like his name indicates. Mitchell is 34% first after trainer change (actually thought this would be higher). Has good precocious pedigree power and I like FLA shippers (dirt only). He faced a couple of good ones and one repeat Pletcher winner already. This field does not look imposing. Has acclimated and worked well enough to win. Doubt we see 4-1 mabe 5-2'ish. I often play against Mitchell on heavy favorites (8-5 and under although Quinton's Destiny nosed me Sunday ) as he is a tough mountain to climb in these situations.
5) Tummel - only dirt start figures close versus these. Runs similar race regardless of class. Looks like an under type.
6) Ron Burgundy - reportedly got the ultimate equipment change so maybe that works. Harlan's Holiday first dirt could be an angle. Drop can only help also. Under bomb for tri/super players.
7) Charlie Company - this one intrigues me. Ships south after decent efforts in last two on Tapeta. Trainer can win in SoCal. Debut on dirt at SA was poor, but he had trouble and it was a debut. Line out and consider it a workout. Will probably offer some value off GG efforts. 10-1 would seem fair. Not the most likely but could be separator in a HG exercise that seems heavy chalk tilted in plays so far.
8)Visible Marq - MSW to claiming 75 then to claming 50. 0-2 and it is Baffert. After two starts Baffert babies are usually 2-2 or 2-1-1-0; not 0-2. Just not his normal MO in my opinion. Likely favorite so by all means I hope the Baffert train leaves the station fully boarded. He may win but it won't pay much so I have no reservation going against. I avoid these Baffert types and has the same feel much like week's HG Baffert entry that ran up the track at low odds. Dangerous playing against Bob but this one does not inspre me. I would hate to write a check for Visible Marq for $50,000 that is sure.
9) Congrats Ski- has every chance to win on drop and very solid connections. The horses has been back and now up early in last two. Speed/fade last out but with new pilot maybe the light bulb comes on. 4-1 seems short but every horse in here has holes in their resume's. Suppose that is why it is MDN 50.
The rest of the field I cannot endorse.
$40 exacta box 3-7 with $20W on #7. Good luck to all!!
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Keith L., & others,
I can't speak to the complete accuracy of the following, as I just became in the know by happenstance. Anybody that knows me, knows I care for quite a few animals on my own dime, so here it is.....I'm quite sympathetic to horse maltreatment...
I went to the local feed store & had to stock up & that involves a lot of big & heavy stuff. 100lbs & up each. So, I decided to ask the clerk to have somebody load my truck..Hay is a separate thing...That I allready did. I usually do it all, but I didn't feel like doing it this time. I'm nowhere near Philly Park. They send out a female who didn't weigh 90 lbs. I said, what are you doing ? She said, I'm loading UR truck..I laughed...I questioned her, as I never saw her there before.. She said, she does it all the time as she has 37 horses..Holy Sheeto.. How do you do this ? Who pays ? I know she aint making much at the feed store. Man, she loaded that stuff like Mr. Universe. Hey, they sent her out to do it, so ? Heeheehee.....
She says she has a contract w/Philly Park..I had my Philadelphia{the City} hat on..& then the conversation started. I mentioned the DRF & a few names..Sorry Dan, she didn't know you...LoL.. I said Philly Park ? & You work here ? That's a long trip..I digress...The gist....>>
She said all Philly Park race purses are taxed for rehabbing & retirement ? I didn't know that. I thought how refreshing.. Mandatory...She gets a fishcake to take in the horses. & I mean a Fishcake..Trust me, $1,500 to 2K{one time shot} aint gonna make you money..She has to work a menial job to do this for the love of the horses..The owners can all give their horses to Philly Park for free & they make sure the horses are not slaughtered. Then the Park does the rest. Park pays all the medical costs & operations & then sends them off to re-hab{back to the races} or to retirement. If the horses are deemed to still be race worthy, she still gets a continual stipend..& if retirement then the one time fee is a true fishcake & she has to work just to take care of the animals..Trust me people, she aint making money to speak of..Well guess what ? I left the feed store w/a smile, & had a whole new thought process about Philly Park..I think it is unique to Philly Park, as I did some homework, but, I could be wrong..I haven't seen anything about other race tracks doing the same...So, heres what she gave me>>>>
1}Patha.org>>this is the site for the program at Philly Park, called Turning for Home.......
2}Aftertheraces.org>>This is her Non-profit & I mean non-profit site......
No horses running at Philly Park will ever go untreated because someone can't afford it. All they have to do is hand over the horses to the Park & they do the rest..Of course as long as there are people like Bryana Laudenslager{the 90 lb. girl}, who do it for the love of these great animals.......
All the stuff I relayed here, I had absolutely no idea any of it existed......Wow.......all in my home State.....& my ex home Town......The light bulb ???
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jimi - Bernard Downes
"erincloy important" ....
I kinda' took your captcha, loosely as tongue in cheek for the phrase,"erin go braugh" important'...
or "Ireland Forever ' which may not be important to Bernard, since he is from England :)
But, we all know our history and that nasty spat the sisters Elizabeth and Mary had ...
Oh, wait ..that was Scotland, not Ireland, oh well..
So jimi, maybe I got 'part' of the humor? Si senor, que bien ? ...lol!
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Re the recent posts on outsiders, I bet an interesting race yesterday. It was a 16 runner, low level novice hurdle, not a handicap, and so a wide variety of prices.
I was conviced that the odds-on favourite was no certainty, and definitely not worth his 4/11 odds. I bet 3 horses each way (your WPS) at 40/1, 54/1 and 25/1 and they finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in that order. It was pity that the favourite finished two lengths ahead.
So I made a reasonable profit, but was that (nearly) good handicapping, luck or bad luck?
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Ned Daly
OMG , that is horrific!
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santa anita thurs contest
am going with the drop ins
$ 4 ex box 3 6 9 10
$ 2 triple key 3 / 10 9
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RonZ,
I sometimes bet Exactas on US racing, but I have never been convinced by the value of the returns over here.
Taking the race in question, here is how I reason. I have bet the 2nd horse to Win at 40/1, or to Place or Show at a pre-determined fraction of those odds (see later). But if I had bet the UK equivalent of an exacta, I have to choose the winner AND the second in the correct order, and I would have got odds of just 27/1. My logic may be flawed (and some of my betting IS instinct not logic), but it doesn't seem the greatest value.
I suppose the sensible thing would have been to divide my stakes between both types of bets.
On your last point, if you bet with the bookies you are correct. Place and Show gives a single return, either 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds, depending on the type of race, and on the number of runners.
SR Vegas,
Re the ENTRIES pages, I am not very good at links, so can I put it this way. If I go to the DRF website, press Entries, press Aqueduct, press 26 Jan, then race number 1 was a $15,000 claimer; but on my screen the value of the purse is 28,000, but it is not like any US Dollar sign I have ever seen. It is a £ sign.
I wondered whether the DRF website was so clever it could recognise that a Brit was reading it, but if that was the case why wasn't the $15,000 expressed in £s as well?
I don't know about Holmes and Watson, perhaps we need the FBI as well. Alternatively, perhaps Dan could offer an explaination in a quiet moment.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Ned Daly,
That's an interesting link you provided. I did indeed read it. However, the crux of my discussion
about the thing I found out was about Philly Park & only Philly Park. Your link names Penn National. & it also mentions California. Although both PN & PP are in Pa., Philly operates on it's own & taxes the purses..Of course bad apples can be found anywhere. So, if you find anything maligning Philly Park's new idea, I'd be all ears. Other than that, I don't see the correlation between Philly Park & your link, execpt both are in Pa. Did you check out the two links I provided ?
It's all Philly Park & only Philly Park, if I recall.....
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HG SA 7f mdns.
I don't know who's going to win . Its seems fairly evenly matched.
wagers
$20 WP 7 --- charlie
$ 9 ex box 3, 7, 8 -- tower, charlie, marq
$1 ex box 5 ,7,8 -- tummel ,charlie, marq
__________________________________________________________________________________
RonZ . LOL. speaking of the devil. both Sherman & Blanc show up in here. :-)
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HG 268
$4 Superfecta
1,7,10/1,7,10/1,7,10/5,8,9,11 for $96
$4 Win on 10 for $4
Good Luck to all
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Just in........Blind Luck retired..1st things 1st & on the docket..Will be bred to guess who ?
SlewBerdinni.....The announcer joked, "I want to be Bernardini for a day..."
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Scratches are in . I'll take a look at the hg now. If it takes me more than 20 minutes than I don't know who's going to win.
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Bernard Downes
..."But the Purse Value is shown in £s, not Dollars,"...
Hmmm, your question made me look. It is all in $$ on my link.
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/AQU/USA/2012-01-26/D
Holmes and Watson may need to be called in on this one :)
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"Really ? Duh ? I'm not going to get into Politics.......& May I suggest you do the same........... "
ha, I was chatting comedy...
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Calvin,
Interesting link. I wonder what Shetland pony racing would look like?
Jimi,
Sorry, I am useless at subtle humour.
SR Vegas,
Thanks for the ALGORITHMS workout info. A bullet workout! If my jottings book is correct that is a 1:02:20, a 1:02:41 and now a 1:02:02 in a fortnight. Seems he loves 1:02 and something. I am sure he is ready to race.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Bernard Downes , You should post more often not less often. Always fun to read your posts. Which hair do you own ? Hopefully one on the nose . Thats the most important one.
DaZed and Confused, ROFLMAO !!!
RonZ , excellent interpretation. We all know there is *some luck* in racing .Some people are just luckier than others. Wink,nod. LOL.
CurtV , good. I thought you were getting peeved at me for a second. I am wrong every so often. LOL. Thats what makes me human. :-)
__________________________________________________________________________________ For some of the trolls,
The discussion is not about one $68 horse . Its about how much does LUCK play into having them. For people that never have them I'm sure it seems like luck. For people that have too many to keep track of it doesn't feel like that at all. Personally I NEVER make a bet that I don't EXPECT to win. Does that mean I win every bet? Not hardly !!
If you have to keep a scrap book of every bomb you ever had then you probably fall into the first category. If you can't remember the name of the biggest price you ever had then you're probably in the second category. My biggest paid $191 and change. I think it was at Del Mar , buttZ ... I wouldn't swear to it. I don't really remember much about him/her at all except the important part ! $191 and change.
I had an $84 horse in I think the Lexington a few years back . Slew something or other. The name isn't important the $84 is. CurtV , a Slewster that never looked back. He figured to do that. LOL. That veterenarian guy trained him . He was up the track in the Belmont RON Z can you find out his name ?? I'm 90% sure it was the Lexington. I think he won or ran in the Lone Star Derby next out as the Favorite. I let him run without me in that one as MikeA would say.
I don't willy nilly bet bombs every race. Value is elusive. It moves around a lot. The races can be beaten from many different angles. YES, I said the races CAN be beaten. If you know what you're doing.
If you're just entertaining yourself they can be fun too. Its just more fun to be a winner. It has always amused me that people think they can go racing half- assed. It don't work that way if you want to win. Just like playing any game.
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HG 268---
$20 ex
1,3,5,8,10/6
Lefty out...
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HG268
tom bets
$1 superfecta box 1, 5, 7, 10
$1 superfecta box 1, 5, 8, 10
$1 superfecta box 1, 5, 8, 9
$1 superfecta box 3, 4, 5, 9
$2 exacta box 1, 10
thanks Dan
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Handi 268 picks:
$1 triple box 2-3-5-8-10 = $60
$1 superfecta Key 4 with the 1,5,7,8 = $24
$1 superfecta Key 1 with 3,5,8 = $6
$10 win 11
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HG 268
I like the early speed of #1 MIDNIGHT CON considering the circumstances, but I can't deny the showing of #5 TUMMEL on the dirt throughout.
VISIBLE MARQ should take money, I pass with some caution.
CLOUD TOP is also of some interest.
$50 Ex. Box 1/5
On another note, FRUMIOUS is a great tb name in an area traditionally rather mediocre. Lewis Carrol...
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jimi - Bernard Downes
"erincloy important" ....
I kinda' took it loosely as tongue in cheek for the phrase, 'erin go braugh' important'...
or Ireland Forever, which may not be important to Bernard, since he is from England :)
...and we all know history and that nasty spat the sisters Mary & Elizabeth had ...oh, wait ..that was with Scotland, not Ireland, oh well..
So jimi , maybe I got 'part' of the humor? Si senor, que bien ? ...lol!
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HG268
Cindy bets
$10 to win 1
$39 exacta box 1, 5
$.10 superfecta box 1, 2, 4, 5
$.10 superfecta box 1, 2, 3, 5
$.10 superfecta box 1, 2, 5, 8
$.10 superfecta box 1, 2, 5, 7
$.10 superfecta box 1, 2, 5, 9
thanks Dan
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Curt V. (and anyone else)
For an entirely different view of how some horses in PA are treated by some people.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/kelsey-lefever-every-one-of-them-is-dead/
Much more on this story at the same source.
Ron Z.
Great (and consistent) advice about both handicapping and wagering strategy in your two recent posts. Thanks.
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HG SA
$8 Tri Box 1 / 5 /6
$4 Tri 1-5-6
Thank You
Peter Monte
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Lenny
I can only speak for what I have seen the last few years, and will let Alan & Lil Chok add in.
...this is a new format for our qualifiers from the last 3 years who will be here this year.
( Alan, & LilChok) ...But not unusal from the past tournaments that were held at Ballys, in their Ballrooms. This format is new to me.
Perhaps at the meet and greet , it can be discussed and we can fiqure it out.
At the Red Rock Casino the last three years, it was held in the Sports Book. Guests could sit in the adjoining cafe, and casino areas. ( if you got there early, like 6:30 am and grabbed a table in the cafe, coffee and a donut, to secure your seat) Therefore seeing the races on the big screen TV's and also being able to see and talk to the qualifiers, and place your bets.
I hope (us non qualifiers) can see and root everyone on. From past history, it can be pretty intense and the players can be very focused at the task at hand. ( like winning bucco bucks !!)
and I totally understand when they want some ' time to themselves ' while they go about the business of the tournament.
I did not get a chance to scope out The Ballroom areas, (yet) hopefully it will have something for us all. Players & guests, and we can easily interact with one another during the day :)
I just read the DRF article that was put up today, (& from reading the tournament information)
..."Seats in the main Contest area are for Contest Players only and may be reserved on a first come, first-served basis after a player registers for the Contest."
That would be the Treasure Island Ballroom...with (480 seats)
" An auxiliary Contest area will be available to Contest players and guests. "
That would be the Caribbean Ballroom ..with ( 120 seats)
with 482 qualifiers I guess they don't expect to have a 1-1 ratio of players and guests hanging around ..lol! only 1/4 the amount of guests. Right, they don't know Formblog !
..But, we'll certainly fiqure it out. See you tomorrow.
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Annie, You haven't heard any crying about my horse STAT not doing any running from me. I told you when you gave him to me that I loved his name and didn't care if he ever ran a race. I haven't been trying to trade him off like I was with Uncle Moo. :-) I saw SR post a work for him last week . So he'll be around. Maybe.
Whacky, No I didn't . I was busy screwing off on Formblog instead of paying attention. El mano ayer. Si si ! Yo no abreojos. Grande dummy !! Comprende la machina ?
Bernard Downes , it was a little of each. Well done sir. Yes I've been watching the solicitors rake the M boys over the coals . Trial of the century IMO. I find it good TV as well.
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#1 Midnight Con has consistent, decent Beyers but note Doug O'Neill is only 8% off the claim and he took this gelding from Jeff Mullins
#2 Cruxus--toss out, unimpressive in debut
#3 Towering offers value, perhaps, in that colt moves into Mike Mitchell (34% off the claim) barn. Could advance 25 Beyer points in second career race.
#4 Cloud Top is moved up by owner trainer after decent debut
#5 Tummel drops from MSW, one of most powerful angles in handicapping. Finished second by 3/4 lengths on this track at $75,000 level in October. Trainer 27% for 31-60 days. I like this one.
#6 Ron Burgundy has shown no talent
#7 Charlie Company has solid Beyers but on synthetic track. Debut was on dirt, with 33 Beyer, but was that the dirt speaking or just his first race? Drops from MSW. I like his chances.
#8 Visible Marq drops slightly from $75,000 maiden claimer on this track where he finished second at 6 furlongs. Invisible Ink breeding suggests he will like the addiitonal furlong. Baffert trains. Very interesting.
#9 Congrats Ski drops from MSW on this track. Sire is strong on synthetic track, so not sure about dirt. Appears to be one of top front runners.
#10 Awesome Mike had a weak debut in November against a very fast pace.
#11 Outperform has raced twice against state-breds without distinction.
I'm going to start with a superfecta key built around 5-7-8 backed up by 1-3-9
$1 Superfecta
5-7-8 with 5-7-8 with 5-7-8 with 1-3-9 = $36
$2 Superfecta
5-7-8 with 5-7-8 with 1-3-9 with 5-7-8= $36
$1 Superfecta
5-7-8 with 1-3-9 with 5-7-8 with 5-7-8 = $18
That leaves me with $10
$2 exacta Part wheel
8 with 1-3-5-7-9
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HG 268
Tough to like on top:
11-Outperform has and improving, but 9% rider to go with poor Beyers and post position.
Can’t rule out an upset from any of the others. Main contenders for top spot:
1-Midnight Con is an O’Neill claim with a respectable Beyer. Jock is suspect, but may be improving.
3-Towering goes from an 8% trainer to the scary good (32% are you kidding me?) Mitchell barn.
4-Cloud top steps up after low Beyer, synthetic debut.
5-Tummel has Beyer competitive with the 1-horse.
7-Charlie Company would be favored off his good Beyers if this was Golden Gates surface and not dirt.
8-Visible Marq has top connection and Beyer. Should go favored.
9-Congrats Ski has Bejarano and drops in class. Dangerous.
10-Awesom Mike appeared to have a dismal debut, but his 1/7 workout, + rider change and 25% trainer will keep him in the mix. Forced to key him since others have taken the above contenders for top spots.
HG 268 WAGER:
$50 WIN #10
$15 Exactas #10 over 1 and 8
$10 Exactas #10 over 5 and 9
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HG 268
$100 WIN #5 Tummel
Tummel is a dirt horse and will be overlooked because of his synthetic failures.
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HG
$5 Tri 3/89/all
$5 Tri 3/89/89
Love Towering off drop and trainer change.
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winston choo
Gesundheit
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Re that 68 dollar horse.
Never has so much been written about so little to so many by so few.
Ahh Choo
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HG 268 1-26-12
My first post must have fallen into Dan's spam folder?
Here's my repost for HG268.
$16 Superfecta 9 over 1, 5, 8 = $96
$1 Superfecta 3, 9 / 3, 9 / 6, 10 / 6, 10 = $4
and there they go.....
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Dan
...enjoyed yours and Mike Beers 'race of the day' analysis and your 'Men in Black' look.
I like Sooo Steamy with Chantal Sutherland , she seems to do well in turf /routes.
and Kissable the PGH ( maybe because I like Muchos Besos ..'many kisses' that other PGH)
it's a name association :)
BTW, I look forward to your Sunshine Millions Luck P6 analysis this weekend.
Good Luck!
-------------------------------------
Annie
..."I don't tweet or twitter or facebook or any of that stuff, but sometimes see things scrolling along DRF's main page. :)..."
Aha! ...so that is what that scrolling thing is, too bad it's hit or miss on what one sees.
And I'm with you on the 'tweet'- twitter'- facebook' stuff. ...not for me either.
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HG SA
The #1 - I like the PP The 7 can finish
$12 tri !,7 /1,7/ 3,5,8,9
$1 super 1,7/1,7/5,8/5,8
Theo
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Alan
Although there have not been enough races to come to a strong conclusion. It seems that closers, at least to this point, have run well even with the shorter stretch. However, having said that, it seems they are more likely to get up for minor awards.
For contest purposes, if my handicapping narrowed it down to a front runner and a closer at 1 1/16 and the odds were similar, and I had to bet the race, I would always choose the front runner.
Again, have a great time in Vegas. And when in doubt stick to your first conclusion. Remember it was YOUR HANDICAPPING THAT GOT YOU TO THE BIG DANCE!!!!!!
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BSB,
All things being equal, everything is copacetic my man..You just got one thing really wrong..
I do not dislike C...a lot of his viewpoints maybe..but, again, I do not dislike him....that sort of means to the person..
& just to be clear, as some have an interpretation problem w/humor or not..The preceding was NOT a joke........
p ensign,
Really ? Duh ? I'm not going to get into Politics.......& May I suggest you do the same...........
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HG268
I lurk here occasionally and it looks like you all have a lot of fun on this blog.
My first try....
This race has plenty of angles that I like to follow. It was difficult coming to a conclusion on how this race will set up. It appears on PPs that Congrats Ski will get the lead. The switch to Bejarano is killer. However, Towering looks very live. Mitchel with a new horse is one of the strongest angles alive today. Plus ecobroni who ran 2nd looks to be a good horse for Pletcher. No disgrace in losing at his first try and now also gets Rosario and is by one of my favorite sires Discreet Cat. I suspect Roario will try for the lead. The Baffert horse is the logical play and his last workout suggests he is ready for the winners circle. However for value I must go to one of the two first time gelded horses that I think will both be on the improve.
HG268
100 win on the #6
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Bernard Downes
Yes! ALGORITHMS is comming along :) Here is his workout history compliments of the 'workouts search' link on DRF.
http://www1.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=09023561
Good Luck !
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HG.
$100.00 win #7.
good luck to all.
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Visible Marq could be first to the 1/2 and that's golden at SA.
Wager $100.00 to win on Visible Marq.
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HG268
$100 exacta 3 / 9
towering is first time Mitchell, great j/t stats and comes out of a live GP fray. Contests ski might take them a long way on the lead if allowed to get loose.
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HG 268
$100 exacta 3 / 1
Both the 3 and 1are new acquisitions by the respective trainers. Mitchell is great first off the claim and Midnight Con figures to get good stalking trip if he breaks well from the rail.
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"The $38 horse was right after the $68 horse you ask ? 2 days ? Sounds about right ? I know I should remember, afterall one is only entitled to so many of these priced ones. I mean in a MathematiCally C-hallenged logiCal universe"
Again, proof you did not read what was written. Neither of those horses even qualify for the group I was referring to. Make all the wise cracks you want. I give up.
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VQ, it would be fun . Maybe we could sit at either end and set some traps !!! Either way it would be fun. If you didn't want to play limit maybe I'd jump over and play no-limit.
You would have fun even if you just paid the blinds and listened to my BS. I have a lot of stories that I wouldn't tell here and even the ever gracious LSD can't print here. ;-)
PeeZ
CurtV , my mistake . Isn't one Bolt on the same as another Bolt on ? LOL. All those Bolt ons look the same to me . LOL. Did you look up BilhurZia ! LOL. I watch'em too . That don't mean I have to agree with them or that they aren't worms. I agree with some things and disagree with some buttZ... I always know when they're lying or not. Miller & Morris are mercenaries sold to the last guys on earth they haven't worked for, plain and simple. I don't care if you like them. Thats your right . It don't mean I have too and it don't mean we can't like each other. No biggie. Like I said, I don't have wings. I observe them all and I read it all. You don't like C , C don't like you, I like you both. That should be okay. If it makes you feel better, I don't like Anderson "Vanderbilt" Cooper or "Piers" Pierpoint Pierpoint Morgan either. But hey thats just me.
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HG---
$10 Tri---
10/3,5,8/3,5,8
$6 Tri---
3,5,8/10/3,5,8
$2 Tri---
10/3/5,8
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HG268 SA 1-26-12
$16 Superfecta 9 over 1, 5, 8 = $96
$4 straight Exacta 9 over 5 = $4
and there they go........
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yoneJeffT, udaman, Respect yourself wah wah wah wah Respect yourself weeooo weeooo..
well if you don't respect yourself ain't nobody gonna give a hoot aaahh respect yourself weooo weooo..
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Those bad boys from Boston the funkiest band in the land... the incomparable J.Giels Band...
Music is blastin' their havin' a ball ..formbloggers are doin' it.. right in the hall..
That dirty BSB, says he does it awll... its up to the bloggers to make that call...
Doin' the Detroit breakdown waah waah waah waah Motor City shakedown waah uh waah waah....
BSB is gettin' craZy and heee don't care .. he lost his nuuuurves with his underwear ...
he went out dancin' uh late last night ... he saw somethin' there that was uh outtasight !!!
Doin' the Detroit breakdown waah ah waah waah... Motor City shakedown waah a waah :-)
LOL . Some of you fun loving guys & girls could have had some fun hangin' with me when I was younger and a drinker. There was no tellin' if I might pull out my blues harp, jump in with the band and start doin' a *Little Walter* *Muddy Waters* style if the mood struck me back then. LOL. I used to tell my Wife and our friends that *Magic Dick* ain't got nuthin' on me !! LOL. That was a lie ,buttZ... I wasn't bad with a little lubrication. LOL.
WHAMMER JAMMER le'mee hear a lil' BSB. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaah !! wawawanna wa waaa waa waaa waahh!!!
I used to be a pretty cocky, pretty craZy sucker back when I was a cobra, before I became a humble quiet guy :-) Ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss LOL.
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Curt V.
Still waiting on your promised Philly Park (now ParxRacing) story. I'm somewhat intrigued with this venue. Their year round operation with racing on Mondays and Tuesdays besides weekends gives options for players and horsemen, especially when Deleware is black. They have improved their purse structure, fueled by casino $$$, and their fields are growing larger, it seems,
responding to that move.
Takeout for W,P,S wagering is a better than average 17%; 20% for DD and Exactas. Its advised to stay clear of tris, supers, and other horizontals, however for their much worse than average takeout.
With MSWs carrying $43K purses, Allowance races beginning at $45K, and lowest level claimers ($7.5K) at $23K, they appear to be drawing improved quality in runners.
What say you sir? Any interest in this venue?
Keith L.
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BSB
thx 4 your thoughts on poker
typical BSB post
i don't play limit so we wont b playing at the same table
though if i saw u playing i'd get my name on the list just 2 sit there and listen 2 all your BS.
that b a trip
alright thats enough on poker
VQ
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HG 268
$4 Super Box 1-3-5-8
$2 Super 8-1-3-5
$2 Super 8-1-5-3
Going with some of the high Beyer horses (#1, #5, #8). Not impressed with high Beyers of GG shipper. Like Mitchell's stats with new trainees (#3).
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HG268
$50.00 Exacta Box 5/1
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HG 268
.. $50.00 ex/box: 5-9 = $100 .. CHAAZZ
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HGSA
Bluenote stole my bet!
1. I like the 10 cause he has 1 of only 2 recent bullets, the last beating 48.
2. Great J/T % and ROI
3. Good trainer %
4. My handicapping skills are limited with these types of horses so I always
favor the non-favorite. Well, actually my handicapping skills are limited
with all types of horses but I'm learning a lot since joining Formblog!
So, I'll eliminate likely low odds horses and go for the #10 placing to form
a nuclear exacta.
$14 exactas 2,4,5,6,7,9,11 with the 10 = $98
$2 for the mutual clerk
Good luck to all! Captchas are definitely getting harder to recognize.
Capt. Ron
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Dan, what were the most bet on tracks in 2011?
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stuckinarizona
curliniron ...lol! That's good!
my thought was 'Olympic Sport' ... my take on 'Curling'
or 'Rachels Wintersport'
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Calvin Carter
It amazes me how much you have ventured into the 'IT' social world of information.
Good for you !
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P. Ensign , the long answer is,
Probably because you can pick any 2 races to make a DD out of. The pools are smaller as well since rolling DDs. A guy with a high degree of certainty on 1 race can pound the DD wheel trying to maximiZe a short nearlock. In essence depressing his own price .
Like C said a few weeks ago some guys that have a lot of money don't necessarily have a lot of brains. In the days when there was only 1 DD the pool would have 2-3 hundred grand in it. Nowadays its 10 pools with 20- 30 grand.
I used to love the DD when there was only one. I would put maybe 30% of my daily bankroll into it. When I hit I was going to have a good day no matter what else happened that day. Doubles paid better back then ,ButtZ ... I think the biggest I ever had was 600 something . Back to back $30 horses. When I was really young 10-11 maybe ? (my older brother had to make my bets for me then) I hit a big one that would have been bigger, buttZ... my 2nd leg deadheated. I bitched and moaned all day that it wasn't no deadheat !! LOL. I've been bitching & moaning ever since. LOL.
The father of one of my baseball buddies hit the biggest local DD ever (at least at that time ) almost $11,000 twice ? He always played a $4, 1-7 ,7-1.(shaking my head in disgust) That was sheer luck !!! He wasn't a real player.
I cut my eye teeth on the DD . Thats probably why I've always had an affinity for bottom claimers & mdns.
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Annie
I am starting to get a little nervous regarding my MKB pony Currency Swap. Hasn't seen the track since his surgery. Anybody know anything about him ?
I am also reminded of my last years MKB with the Sam F Davis coming up. That would be the great disappearing Brethren you may recall. After easily winning the Sam Davis he went South in a hurry, finishing 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby and 11th in the Arkansas Derby and hasn't been heard from since. I posted some time back asking if anyone knew anything about Brethren and got no response. So I'll try once more. Anybody know what goes with Brethren ?
Dick W
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Anderson
LOL. Yes, I'm not sure if 0 $ lost Canadian tops 0 $ lost U. S. or not ?
I really like your MKB horse Rousing Sermon and was secretly hoping I would draw him. Pedigree wise I'm not sure if he wants 1 1/4 miles or not, but he sure acts like he can handle the added distance. He has finished strongly in all his races. And I actually made a real bet on him across the board in the Cash Call. While I was pleased with the place and show payoffs, I really wanted that 14 to 1 on the win. Good luck with him.
Dick W
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I see Incarnate Memories is entered in a MSW 8th race on Friday at FG. This is a Larry Jones trained daughter of Indian Charlie out of the Hello Liberty family. Hello Liberty was a Jones runner who raced up to a mile. I believe she won a grade 2 and was placed in Acorn. Another foal out of this family won a debut at GP for Todd Pletcher Saturday impressively. This one was reported to be an expected "runner" at 2 and 3 but never quite made it to the track. Now she finally gets her chance. I have experienced great results with Indian Charlie on turf especially in non-routes. She is scheduled for 5.5F on grass. The work pattern is clearly Jonesian. Patient steady works steadily increasing in the distance. The last work in 59 4/5 BG (1/38) is very strong. Most Jones horses do not work bullets although the superstar graded types are capable and do put up bullets. Hard Spun and HDG regularly put up quick am times.
Now the downside... any horse just getting to the track at 4 is likely to have or had issues (Zenyatta was exception as a late 3 year old). I don't recall what her issue(s) were but I suspect she can still motor. Jones is now 1-36 with first timers in last two years. He broke thru with Robi Jo (Lemon Drop Kid out of Lord at War mare) on grass Sunday at FG. I don't play debut types often and don't often play Larry's due to his normal patterns in debuts. Plus he is simply bet hard as folks generally respect and root for him. I tend to wait for start 2-3 and better prices. Robi Jo, was only 4-1 despite 0-35 debuting record.
This one will be a real test of my resolve as I have waited for a long time for IM to make it to the track. However, I posted my resolutions at the start of the year and I have one clearly regarding this case in point. I hope she wins or runs to her pedigree on Friday.
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HG
Tummel--Art Sherman has been placing his stock correctly and Is It True/Cherokee Run=7/8
Towering by hot Discreet Cat, out of a Dehere Mare, another Calder to Mitchell
To the outside to complete the super off of works, connections and PPs
$8.30 Super 5,3 / 5,3 / 8,9,10/8,9,10
10 cent Could I get those on 83 separate tickets please.
erincloy important >> Bernard, does this captcha have meaning for you?
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Am I the only one that doesn't see the post position numbers on the PDF for HG-268?
Are the numbers for the horses one thru eleven as they appear? (1-11)
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Curt,
My "own thing" did not involve you. I never mentioned you, I never said one thing about you. I wasn't even thinking about you when I wrote that post. You, on the other hand, mention me constantly in a derogatory manner. I don't deserve it and will not stand for it.
If you think my response to Allen Poe had anything to do with "math", it either went over your head or you're thinking too hard. I added my thoughts on the idea that he raised and, in fact, disagreed with him on much of it (like luck playing a big role). What "math" are you even talking about? BSB, Ron, and some others contributed something to the conversation, even though they didn't agree with me. You didn't contribute anything except digs on me. If you can intelligently debate the points I made, do it. If you don't have anything worthy to add, save the sarcasm for someone who finds you funny.
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BSB,
I wouldn't worry too much about who owns FOX, butts: I'd be more concerned about who owns the good old U.S. of A. now......▓
The $38 horse was right after the $68 horse you ask ? 2 days ? Sounds about right ? I know I should remember, afterall one is only entitled to so many of these priced ones. I mean in a MathematiCally C-hallenged logiCal universe..........? Rofl........
Are you sure you aint that DB© guy who whatever his name is that jumped out of the airplane years ago & the FBI is still trying to figure what happened to all that money ? & to you ?®..
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BSB,
Your "Bolt's" are screwed on too loose......LoL..I know you used John Bolton numerous times..
I said you had Fox News on your brain...John Bolton wouldn't know a horse from a goat..He's a regular contributor on Fox News..GEORGE Bolton is the owner{s} of the Factor-less........
NaNaNaNaNaNa......Look how nice I tried to tell you, you might be wrong ? How many years have we been doing this ? It just goes to show you how important I think your comments are...Rofl...
Did you see the Poet Edgar's response ? Oh Sheeeet........Call it a Schadenfreude....Does that top Blatherskite ? Look buddy ole pal...I rarely miss a viewing of O'Reilly..& especially Miller...So, watch yourself Chupacobra............LoL........
Alfredo,
Thanx & my buddy told me to use this race in the HG..I agree...This race is a toughie.......
Jeff T..or whatever other name you used, LoL..,
I would like to say thanx & some nice song parodies..Among a few more handicapping reasons that I cannot divulge...{maybe I borrowed Mikeys' crystal ball}..LoL.....
You basically got it right..They were the 2 big handicapping facts..Mizzen Mast & gelded..He showed good speed from the bleachers in his 2 races..Now he got the rail & had the fast works. I totally expected a front running trip, & I got it. & the value odds..Here is the ultimate one which put him over the top..There were no world beaters or anything else to brag about..& they were all MAIDENS......That's why I love Maiden races.....Of course I boxed him 1-2 just in case, & I did have the 2 other horses........So it was 1-2-3......
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Thanks to everyone for the kind words. I qualified via the Twinspires Online Handicapping Championship in November. I finished 5th but lost a photo by a nose that would have got me second. I'll definitely try to stop by on Thursday night. I am getting in around 11 am PT tomorrow, where are those that are qualified planning on sitting for the tournament? The main room or the side room? Would you be interested in sitting together during the tournament?
SR Vegas,
I got your message via Dan and I'll send you a reply later tonight with my contact info.
Lenny
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aparagon4u - Lenny
....I will also try to contact you via email - thru Dan, with a couple things planned for the weekend. Keep an eye out for it. Travel Safe !
TurnbacktheAlarm
I loved the Joey-Finders Key horse actor story you linked. Now I must go see the movie !
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It looks as if the wheel right back #1 has all the speed. There is very little to his immediate out side to trap him.
Visible Marq the lightly raced Baffert trainee is dropping in today.He has improving Beyers, not to mention co-highest. He was respected in the win pool in last and first try over fake dirt in Hol. was not bad either.
I'll use Charlie Company, co-highest Beyer, to round out the tri.
HG $60 Win #8
$20 X #8 W/ #1
$20 T #8 W/ #1 W/#7
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Congrats Curt V you picked a tough one but then which ones are easy?
When I have a chance I like to listen to Steve Byk's "At The Races." A couple of months ago I heard Barry Abrams extolling upon the virtues of a the quick turn around. "You can make money at the track by just betting on horses that trainers run back on less than a week's rest." I have not run a paper test on Abrams advice but no doubt Barry and his mentor Roger Stein have long brought their horses back to the races quickly and don't hesitate to bunch a horses races over short amounts of time compared to most West Coast conditioners.
#1 Midnight Con, being brought back to the races after running in our last HG race on Friday. Sorry Barry I don't like the rail.
#2 Cruxus, a vet scratch in his last; he's a toss
#3 Towering, has he taken to Mike Mitchell's "special feed program" seems like most out of state horses do.
#4 Cloud Top, think he's turfer or synth type
#5 Tummel, rallied vs MDC 75K competition over this surface. Props to Sherman for 31-60Days layoffs.
#6 Ron Burgundy, trainer scratch from a MDC30K race two weeks ago. Nice pattern of works. First on dirt. T/J combo 1 of 6 here.
#7 Charlie Company, ran here in his first race then shipped to GG where he's run 3 consecutive BSFs in the 70s.
#8 Visible Marq, Baffert drops from MDC75K sharp work on 1/15 but nothing since then
#9 Congrats Ski, Bejarano gets the mount on a horse dropping from straight maidens
#10 Awesome Mike, Kory Owens has had a good meet. Like #9 takes to big drop.
#11 Outperform, leaves state bred company.
This track has been playing to the speeded and Congrats Ski vied for the lead vs tougher in his last. Could wire these guys. I don't know how Mike Mitchell mysteriously moves up horses. He just does.
HG 268
$50 trifecta 9/ 3/ 7,10
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HG 268 Santa Anita Race 6
.80 Superfecta 1--9--8.7.5--8.7.5.3.1--3.1.8.7.5.10 $38.40
.70 Superfecta 2--8--9.7.5--9.7.5.3.1--3.1.9.7.5.10 $33.60
.50 Superfecta 3--7--9.8.5--9.8.5.3.1--3.1.9.8.5.10 $24.00
T0tal $96.00
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Dick
I think my response was caught in the spamstorn, so what i responded was I ALWAYS do better with real $'s than in PH as I get to select the races I want to play, don't have to just hit one winner, and most important, I get to see as close to real time odds, (minus the final bump), as is possible.
Lenny, congrats, good luck, and good luck to the other bb's in there!
bsb
"I wasn't real happy about the DD pay-out though." Every day that goes by I see or, very rarely, play a DD that disappoints. Not sure what the problem is, but that pool, especially socal version, is utterly disappointing most of the time - at least when I'm watching... not quite sure why? any thoughts?
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MKB Workouts:
-------------
1/23/12
Palm Meadows - dirt/fast
Our Entourage - 4F 0:48.77 Breezing - SR Vegas / IMS
Discreet dancer - 4F 0:50.98 Breezing - Ned Daly
El Padrino - 5F 1:02.77 Breezing - CHAAZZ
Algorithms - 5F 1:02.02 Breezing - Bernard Downes / IMS ...A Bullet!
Santa Anita - dirt/fast
Rousing Sermon - 7F 1:26.80 Handily - Anderson
Hollywood Park - all weather/ fast
Out of Bounds - 4F 0:48.40 Handily - Gracie
-----------
1/24/12
Oaklawn Park - dirt/good
Optimizer - 5F 1:03.20 Breezing - Patrick S
Palm Meadows - dirt/fast
Ancient Rome - 4F 0:49.88 Breezing - Kelley Belles
Take Charge Indy - 5F 0:59.78 Breezing - Whackymacky ...A Bullet!
Union Rags - 5F 1:00.82 Breezing - Laura Lawduck
A Boy Named EM - 5F 1:01.90 Breezing - Keith L / IMS
----------------------------------------------
Meathead01
Though our PGH UNCLE SAM has gone on to the green pasture in the Sky ...RIP
Our other 'Sam' is running this weekend at Golden Gate. That's SOURDOUGH SAM .
6F $50K Albany Stakes.
http://www.drf.com/race-entries/GG/USA/2012-01-28/D/8
I just may wager, since I'll be down on The Strip that day :)
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Talk about a future wager! Wynn Las Vegas makes Rachel's baby 60 to 1 to make the 2015 Derby and 1 to 100 against. - tweet from Jennie Rees, Louisville Courier-Journal turf writer.
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Steven J , Consulado, good man.
Jimi Consulado was a coin flip. So was the horse that beat him 1st time out. I had them both.
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Jimi , Rogontherogrog. ;-)
VQ, no offense taken. I've played with the so-called legends & always more than held my own. I played 20-30 hrs a week for umpteen years in the land of poker. I'd still be raking chips if I didn't have to leave the table to smoke. No-Limit-- I don't like getting my whole stack in before the flop with pocket rockets and getting ran down by somebody thats just trying to turn dirty money into clean. I don't like playing in a game where the players pull out a benny ,go all in ,see if they get lucky, pull out another benny go all in , etc, etc. Boring in my opinion. I said it was just my opinion. In a 9-18 they'd have to wear me down (not an easy proposition) In a no-limit they could get lucky or I could get unlucky. Poker is the 2nd best gambling game there is though.
Tournaments, I agree with Caro . Tourneys are for suckers. Unless its a real freeZe out ,no rebuys & no giving money back to losers that got eliminated. Why would anyone want to win all the money and then give it back ?? ButtZ... me and Caro are old school. The junk on TV is a bunch of made for TV BS with guys not even playing with their own money.
As far as on-line goes, there's a reason Texas Dolly and his irreputable buddies are under investigation, buttZ... you have at it. I don't think I'd be shaking much if you sat down at my table VQ. To quote Lancy Howard " you're good Kid, buttZ as long as I'm around you're 2nd best " :-) peeZ
I said I didn't see where it was real useful on pedigree ,buttZ... C would know more about its application than I would. All I did was glance at it without giving it much serious thought.
___________________________________________________________________________________ CurtV , I meant John Bolton . I'm pretty sure he owns The Factor ? Am I wrong ? Speaking of the Factor I once wrote the Big O a letter ripping Morris & Miller to pieces over something. I used a lot of words that started with a B . I told him M&M were BilhurZia and asked if Morris was the Toe Sucker or the Toe Suckee . LOL. I ended it by coining the word Billarney. Needless to say he round filed it because it was to clever. Within the week he used Blatherskite as his word of the day, buttZ... didn't give me the credit . LOL . My Mom saw the letter before I sent it so she knew and laughed her butt off when he used Blatherskite. She likes the word segment and she called me up to tell me he used one of my words. LOL.
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Anderson,
One of the folks I follow on twitter had the link on their tweet.
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Ron Z, I don't mess with formulator much. You found that in there huh?
Short term memory loss ? Probably LOL.( I said I've had more $100s than I can remember lol) Of-horse nobody forgets 2 in one day !! I had the race # right & I said it was a 2nd timer !! I said Kayla ? because she's rode me a couple of bombs and I've only bet her a few times. I was thinking it was her.
Yeah I was smoking a lot of the medicine and knocking back some codiene 3's too. LOL. I think I had a lot of broken bones, bone chips and real deep bruises then. I was pretty sore and gimpy. LOL. I think it was about 6 months after taking my 33 whacks with that 34/32 Easton ;) That had to be at least 3-4 yrs ago. No ?? I didn't have any $100 horses last year . I had some $60 placers though. One of them got bobbed . He would have been a $100.
Yeah it was big race day that day. Maybe I Want Revenge won that day in NY too ?? I really,really wanted to bet Mullins sprinter that day , ButtZ... he got caught with a syringe in the detention barn and the horse got scratched ? I think I remember telling Smarty after that race that they needed to get a real Jock on IWR. I'm no fan of Tala-schmo he's a slasher, always riding into traps and boxes etc. I damn sure wouldn't get in a car with him behind the wheel !! LOL. All guts no brains !!
Anyway ,now that you've jogged my maryjane fogged memory bank. LOL.
No it wasn't a coin flip. Even I could remember that. If it was I wouldn't have bet (3) horses. I've never had a coin flip bigger than $44 . Sherman ,Sneaky ol' No Cal guy that popped me some goodies over the years. Sorenson, a lot, lot better gate jock than Blanc ( a grass rider). The horse, showed a little speed before moving straight back to last 1st time. ( a trial gate work ?) The young sire , a star crossed runner that had a lot of natural talent. One I was guessing would be a useful one (he was good enough that day lol) The field , not really much to beat in there I don't think ?? The odds , more than they should have been. There probably was another reason or two that gave me an inkling as well. Last but not least (just lucky ?)
I rarely bet a super and I damn sure didn't have that one !!! I did have the DD a few times. I wasn't real happy about the DD pay-out though. I was to gimpy to wander around looking for probables at the time. I just hurt to much. What did the DD pay Ron ? Did it pay $2 LESS than the winner or $2 more ???
The other horse of the 3 that I had under Willy at Oaklawn on my Tri ticket ran 4th !! My buddy Zork that scored the winning run at Dodger stadium in The City Championship game was ragging me for not betting the super as I recall but that might have been another day !! Seriously !! LOL. I had Willy on top with 3 underneath for a buck and I had a 50 center with the 4 of them boxed . I had Willy $20WP . I had the Mdn $10 WP and I had 2 others as get my money backs and in the DD.
What did the Oaklawn Super pay ?
I made a lot of money that day Ron . Don't quote me on this because I was a little buZZed & FuZZy ,buttZ... I think the tri paid near $2000 and the 50 center paid $990 something ? I had the exacta a couple of times too,buttZ Old Fashioned depressed that pretty good as I recall.
Anyway I'm glad you were a skeptic and got the facts. A lot of people around here seem to think I'm strictly Bull Sheet. Maybe your detective work can put that idea to bed.
__________________________________________________________________________________
VQ, Smarty is a Smarty. She also loves me. She taught me to read the encyclopedia A-Z when I was a toddler and she also bought me my 1st baseball glove for Christmas when I was about 7. We have a wave length and I do appreciate her. She's my favorite of my 7 siblings. My little brother is my other favorite. Did I ever tell you I was the 7th child of a 7th child ? Thats supposed to be lucky I think ? Either way, on balance I've been pretty lucky in my life.
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Dan,
why not indicate "newly" gelded with an upper case "G." in the description part of the P.P.
KNM... Tough luck with STEPHANOATSEE off the Derby Trail.
Calvin L. Carter... great item on the “speed” gene (www.irishexaminer.com), how on earth did you find it?
stuckinarizona... Congrats on winning the naming contest for the Rachel-Curlin colt! honourable mention: "Curling Rock"
Alan... get well soon! 'kay?
Dick W... that puts me a close second, my real $$$ bets. Zero bets, zero $$$ lost in Canadian funds.
Ronald H... must beat your hg $100.00 exacta........5-8
Annie... to save time I've cut & pasted some comments from Annie's post.
HG 268:
#5 TUMMEL - Top earnings in the field, ran his best race the only time he raced at SA.
#8 VISIBLE MARQ - Baffert trainee has the co-highest last race Beyer (73) with the GG horse. He ran a fast 6F race in last.
#7 CHARLIE COMPANY - Co-highest last race Beyer and competitive Beyers. Bumped and steadied the only time he raced in So Cal.
#1 MIDNIGHT CON - Coming back in just 6 days, and new trainer, O'Neill has done quite well with this maneuver (20%). He claimed him in last and is cutting him back to 7F. Has speed to get him in a good spot. Good enough for the Tri.
*** Horses CLAIMED from Mullins (at SA HOL DMR FPX) in 2011.
claimed by O'Neill: 1 CLM finished 2nd (as fav)
total clms 10/ finished 2nd: 3/ finished 3rd: 3
#9 CONGRATS SKI - Another dropper who couldn't handle MKB Consulado in last but Bejarano is taking him. Another who could get 4th.
#3 TOWERING - The stranger danger from GP, whose new trainer, Mitchell, has great stats for horses he takes over winning first time out for him. Been working well at HOL and he did run 4th to two MKB winners after a slow start in his debut race.
# 6 RON BURGUNDY - was a little sharper w blinks on the turf in last and just gelded doesn't hurt (does it Alan?).
#10 AWESOME MIKE - Had an awful first race, although had plenty of trouble. Nice works since though, so I'll give him a chance to run 4th as well.
#11 OUTPERFORM - set the pace in HOL race then improved 11th to 5th stretch at SA, so I'll give him a chance to run 4th as well.
#4 CLOUD TOP - homebred finished ahead of my pick from HG267 in only start.
#2 CRUXUS - gee, no trainer stats for first race as gelding.
HG wager:
$100 EX 8/5
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HGSA268
$100 exacta 9/8
Congrats Ski..after showing speed in last, drops down in 2 the mc ranks with no real speed in the race.
Visible Marq...ran good 1st time on dirt and a another drop down
gl
thx Dan
thx 10C
VQ
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Keith L.,
I'm a little sore now, as I'm fighting a case of Bursitis{sp} in the ????? bone at the top of the leg where it meets your butt cheek on the side....Aka:getting up there..It hurts like hell to sit in this chair on the computer..I'm working on the Philly thing..It's a human interest story about sick & retired & rehabbing horses, not about betting...I'm waiting for the pills to kick in..Back at you later on that......
That priced horse ? $38 ? Thanx..I unfairly hit so many, I can't keep track of them..Heehee...Roflmao..........I'm joking Keith..I know you know..Butts: the others ????
BSB,
I aint got time to go archiving..So, I'm shooting from the hip here..I could be wrong, so don't hold it against me..Okay ? I had this jotted down in my notes..Did you mention John Bolton a few times ? About the horse retirement thing ? Now, like I said, I might be wrong..Butts:If that is so, did you mean GEORGE Bolton ? 'Cause you may have Fox News on the brain....John Bolton is an Ex Ambassadore who is a regular on Fox......My humble apology if I'm wrong..I never like to be wrong vs. you..You know, that I know, it's not a good thing..........
C.,
Next time don't start your response as if you know what somebody else is thinking.....Let Edgar Allen Poe speak for himself.....He doesn't know what he's talking about, so how could you know what he's talking about....So yes......I certainly can read, & understand what you were saying..However, I opted to do my own thing......So how do you like it ? Edgar was adresssing me, not you......So then, why do I have to address you.......you didn't address me. But, you certainly had a lot say about it, albeit meaningless. Meaning nothing to do w/handicapping........a lot to do w/Math........
I'll tell you what...you do your thing, & I'll do mine..........I agree, next subject is on the docket.......
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Mad shout out to Curt V. on his HG-267 proclamation. I didn't read up on everyone's individual selections (still behind on my reading the blog) but I seem to recall the #1 horse was a Mizzen Mast gelding who had been stuck way outside (I think it was the 11 hole twice). I don't know what made you pick this horse Curt or what your particular proclamation was (I will go back and scour the blog to find it when I have time) however; it was a gutsy call even with LSD dollars.
Mad respect...
RESPECT YOURSELF
If you don't give a heck 'bout the man
With the Bible in his hand
Just get out the way...
and let the gentleman (Curt V.) do his thing.
==============================
Or; ARETHA'S TAKE ON "R.E.S.P.E.C.T." or; what your wife might say when you go to the track:
I'm about to give you all my money
and all I'm askin' in return, honey
You give me my profits when you get there
Yeah baby, when you get home, oh, yeah, ooh
==============================
The speed fig's and DNA are up for debate
in lucky Dan's blog and HG-268.
The post positions are absent... like fruit off the vines
Don't aks me why... but I gotsta get mines.
I'm feeling a little crazy today and my Detroit DNA is kickin in... I apologize if I offend anyone (lol).
Ever since LSD and Mike's video on Monday where Dan referred to and knew the anniversary (Jan.23) of Hulk Hogan and the Iron Shiek's 1st WWF title match in 1984... I have been laughing for no apparent reason at many things that wouldn't normally make me laugh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nI2-Y-8wxY
Thanks Dan for that "On this Day in History" brevity for the first of Hulk's and the Iron Shiek's many entertaining matches... unlike many horse races that never materialize.
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" i don't play no-limit. its to much like showdown and allows *weak players with chips* and opportunity to get lucky imo."
lmao
i love weak players with chips...especially in no-limit
stick 2 horses plz
" i never play online so i don't think i'd have much use for Bayes Therom. i wouldn't know how to give any advice on that except to say don't do it."
i wasn't asking 4 your advice concerning Bayes Therom/poker. don't take it personally, but i doubt i'll ever b asking you 4 advice when it comes 2 poker ( horses yes, poker no )
i wanted 2 know if u thought Bayes Therom might b useful when it comes 2 pedigree analysis
C thought it might have some merit
btw, i believe also in going with your 1st instinct ( gut feeling ) in poker
admittedly i haven't been able 2 pulled the trigger all the time and in many of those instancies ( certainly not all ) i would have been right.
need 2 trust my instincts better
i fired off some politcal commentary 2 u and the blog last nite. now Dan says something about Spam.
not sure if it was the Spam or Dan has it on the *cutting room floor*
i call it like i c it so it might b on the floor
your right when it comes 2 picking horses i flat out suck
VQ
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blackseabass,
"Jousts"? Thats fine. I am no great fan of splitting hairs.
These days, Guineas are symbolic coins, not real ones; and as far as I am aware all UK horse sales still deal in Guineas.
So you watch PM Questions? You have a stronger stomach than me. I think it is a disgraceful example of British politicians at work (or do I mean at play?).
A much better example of good practice is the Parliamentary Committee that gave the Murdochs a hard time over their denial of their newspapers phone hacking. It was great TV.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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HG SA
Just a trainer play. Mitchell to Baffert.
$100 EX 3/8
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$100 to win on Visible Marq. Ran into two buzz saws in Sir Alison and Consulado. Baffert and Garcia on the slight drop down. Nice work on 1/15 too.
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JIMI , I'lltellyouhowtodoitbuttZ...I'lltellyoulaterokay
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HG
#5 Tummel............Been facing much better
#8 Visible Marq......Baffert, Garcia, Beyers, etc.
$100.00 exacta........5-8
GL
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Dan
...this is just a test...
I had just posted Formblog meet and greet information, when I saw your SPAM note....if this one goes thru, and the other doesn't ..I'll know I was caught in the SPAM cycle. Thanks for the heads up.
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aparagon4u - Lenny
Congratulations on qualifing for the NHC , well done! Alan and 'Lil Chok also qualified.
I have a meet and greet planned for Thursday the 26th at the KahunaVille Bar and Restaurant.
at The T.I (Treasure Island) which is the host hotel.
Cocktails at 5:30pm and dinner following for those who would like to stay.
Please come join Chalky, Alan, BigeasyBigChok, Lil Chok, Bear and his wife, myself and my beloved RAH, and our friend Lauren Stitch.
The name is under "Blue Boxers, Blue Thongs" ...of course :)
Some of us will be around the T.I on Friday and Saturday ( TBTA included) to root on our friends who qualified.
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jimi,
I may be being a little slow but "erincloy important" means absolutely nothing to me.
Please clue me in.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
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Thanks C , I only read it once and I wasn't positive that I remembered the jist of it correctly. I don't really like the idea of the other interpretation for racing or poker, buttZ... thats (probably) :) just me.
VQ, In poker I tend to be a believer until I can fix an aggresive player on a style. I didn't write the stuff down like "The Mad Genius" because back when I played a lot, I still had Total Recall and didn't need to. If I played with someone once I remembered them & their tendencies forever. My recall is still pretty good but not as good as it once was. I can still remember where every non-palageic fish I or anybody with me ever caught and released lives though. LOL. (some things are more important than others )
I never worried much about getting bluffed because I set a lot of traps & make sure to rag the players I've trapped after the fact about them not playing with a baby.(even back when I was a baby) That way players that aren't in the hand don't miss the idea that I'm a trapper and they don't try to steal from me much when I check. I let a few bets get away from me for the sole purpose of setting a tone . Even when you let a bet get away it can serve the same purpose as a trap if you bitch about setting the trap and not catching the quarry in it when you show the hand. If I think I have someone trying to run one, I hardly ever call & never overcall I raise or reraise as soon as they break their stack, even with a marginal or no hand.
I don't play no limit. Its to much like showdown and allows weak players with chips an opportunity to get Lucky IMO. If I wanted to push all my chips in on one hand I'd put it on a horse.
I never play online so I don't think I'd have much use for Bayes Theorum . I wouldn't know how to give any advice on that except to say don't do it. I trust my instinct and experience to tell me if action is logical or not or if someone is bluffing.. IMO poker involves a bit more luck than racing does. Which is not saying that winning poker doesn't take skill.
I first started playing in rooms pre hold'em when I was 15. In Gardena, The Poker Capital Of The World . In those days there were no dealers & only Draw & Lo-ball. There were no Bad Beat JPs either, which I liked. You paid your collection every 30 minutes and there was no dealer to Toke. I played 5-10 or 10-20 draw back in those days and you could smoke like a chiminey stack if you so chose. Sometimes 15-30 if I was flush.
My ex-wife is sharp and she was a winning player. We played in the clubs together on Saturday nights. . We also had two full tables of our friends at our house every Friday night. She was good like you ,buttZ... also like you, she couldn't pick a winning horse with both hands . :-) :-) just kiddin' with ya Bostonatti :-)
PeeZ
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Folks,
I've been having trouble with spam and some of your recent posts may have been deleted. If you notice that to be the case, please re-submit them if you get the chance.
Thanks,
Dan
CAPTCHA: Tellus 60-1 (I wish someone would tell me a winning 60-1 shot)
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" Smarty was with me that day and she knows i'm not a bullsheet. she's known me since the day i was born."
there's no question about that...after all as a teenager u would take her car 2 the track and now as a guy in his 50's u live in her house. :)
i hope u thank your lucky stars that u got good family
VQ
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stuckinarizona,
LOL, you totally got me on Curliniron!
Aparagon4U,
You need to contact SR Vegas for the NHC. She is the hostess with the mostest! I will be there along with Alan, Bear and his wife, BigEasy, Lil Chok, SR Vegas, RAH and my husband. We would love to meet you.
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bobc,
Thanks! In your opinion, has the shorter GP stretch resulted in less closers winning 8.5f dirt races?
Lenny,
Congratulations! Your inclusion in the NHC is long overdue! I will be there and look forward to finally meeting you in person!
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HG, 1/26/2012 (Santa Anita)
$50 Ex Box of 10 & 11
Taking #10 AWESOME MIKE, with the ridiculous ROI on the team statistics and using #11, OUTPREFORM, who was more competitive for a tag (which he returns for) than in statebred MSW company. Outside post in a 7F sprint and rider switch should help.
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"I am using your strategy with my real $$$ bets, however, and doing quite well. I would guess that in the past 2 or 3 weeks I am ahead of the majority of form bloggers with my real $$$ bets. Zero bets, zero $$$ lost. LOL. Keep up the good work."
Dick
I'm actually not using that strategy for real - the PH contest is FAR more difficult for me - what with the races being selected for me and having to bet blind without knowing odds and only to win, so I always do better when I choose what, when and how I play...
Lenny - GREAT JOB congrats!
to BSB,TOYBOY and all the other amusing characters, as the blog turns has just been awesome the last couple of 24 hour solar cycles, gracias mi amigos and amigettes.
arruple tractive
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HG268 $100 Win #10 Awesome Mike. I like that work.
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Alan
In case you didn't see it, I posted an answer to your question to Dan about the starting spot for Gulstream Park's 1 1/16 mile races at the end of Dan's previous blog.
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HGSA 268 #3 Towering comes out of potentail key race at Gulf.
$33 Ex 3/5-6-10
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BSB,
Your explanation was fine.
Curt,
When you have something to say about me, say it to me. Got it? Good.
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HG
Congrats Ski showed speed for the first time last out and drops in for a tag. Bejarano won't help the price but there is no other definite speed so give me $100 to Win on Congrats Ski.
NHC
I finally qualified for the NHC. Anyone else going? If you want to meet up let me know.
Lenny
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HG268
I'll take a shot with the 2 N. Cal. trainers, Morey and Sherman.
#5 Tummel - only try at SA was decent against slightly better.
#7 Charlie Company - trouble at start in first try followed by 3 decent efforts at GG.
$50 exacta box 5,7
Good luck to all !
Dick W
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p ensign
Yes, I noted that your clever strategy of making zero picks in PH has catapulted to to the top of the form blog PH leader board. LOL. Actually, you are tied with Baltimore Brian who is employing the identical strategy. I realize in hind sight that after hitting a few nice ones the first 3 weeks of the contest, I should have known to follow a similar strategy in which case I would be in pretty good shape. But no, I had to continue thinking that I am actually good at this and have failed to pick a winner the last 5 weeks, plunging from number 1 to 14 (out of the 16 I have listed).
Of course one week can make a big difference. Look at Meathead, for example. He went from last to first with those $32 and $9 winners last week (that's including only those who actually make picks).
I am using your strategy with my real $$$ bets, however, and doing quite well. I would guess that in the past 2 or 3 weeks I am ahead of the majority of form bloggers with my real $$$ bets. Zero bets, zero $$$ lost. LOL. Keep up the good work.
Dick W
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HG
.10 cent superfecta's 9 with all /all /all
$28 win #9
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S. Florida Formbloggers,
I'll be heading to Gulfstream on February 11 with some ThoroFan members. If you'd like to meet up, please let me know!
Tinky!! I know you're down there. Come out from hiding under the Tinky er....Tiki Bar! BobC, I sent you an email, it's always nice to see you.
Laura
PS - please note that I didn't say, "see you there," thus opening myself for the standard reply "Not if I see you first."
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HG 268
$25 tri 3/7/1289
#3 last race GSP slow start and Ecobroni(winner next out). Hoping second start on dirt with jockey/trainer change works.
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HG 268
Midnight Con and Tummel both have something to show by way of speed, distance ability, and results. Charlie Company and Visible Marq are the co-figs, and have results. I think Midnight Con can go early, with the rest stalkers and closers. I like the idea of a good early horse with a good closer.
On the theory these young 3YOs have a lot of growing up to do Awesome Mike might be a longshot.
HG WAGER
$16 Exacta Box 1/8/7 for $96
$4 WIN # 10
Good luck to all!
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HG Lets try 50$ exacta box 5-9
#5 seems to fit this group, gets good stalking trip. Sherman been hot, horse been training right along, might prefer dirt.
#9 Droping from msw, speed and stopped last, probable speed.
Good luck all
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HG SA GOES HOLLYWOOD!
#6 Ron Burgundy is a 1st-time gelding. Yikes! Don't tell Will Ferrell! Or Christina Applegate for that matter! I might have expected Steve Carell's character Brick to have been gelded, but not The Legend himself! And imagine for a moment if they had gelded Brian Fantana. Who would then say "That's the smell of desire my lady"? Brian BTW had nicknames for his, uh, well you get the idea.
Anyhow, so now Anchorman is gelded and so is #2 Cruxus, so let's do the no testicles exacta box!
$50 EXBX #2,6
Good luck!
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Howdy all:
How about a naming contest for the Rachel-Curlin colt?
My entry: CurlinIron
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HG268 Entry:
$33 WPS: Congrats Ski
Good luck!
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HG
I am addidted to horses shortening up at the 7 furlong distance. Although there are several dropping from maiden special weight, the only horse shortening up is the 1, Midnight Con.
Wager: $100 Win on #1.
Thanks Dan!
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HG
$50 Exacta 3 over 1,7. Total $100.
Towering is a 1st off the claim for Mitchell. He has a great record on 1st timers and Rosario will have somewhat of a pace to chase. Like the 1 to try to get wire to wire, but seems to keep getting nail by off the pacers at the wire. Like the works for #7 Charlie Company. If he switches from Tapeta to Dirt and runs those Beyers...he has a great shot of winning.. Victor is riding him. Keeping it simple.
PNR
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Interesting posting by Steve Haskin on Sat, 1/21 on his top dozen (make it 11, as Stephanoatsee
is now out of the Trail). Haskin also posits the theory that while in the past tracing stamina of the dam's side of the pedigree to complement the speed of the sire sides was "fashionable", last year and this year it's more about the stamina sires!
Posting can be found on Bloodhorse.com website, front page.
SR Vegas, and Boy Toy...responses to your's (and others) comments at the end of the last thread were posted late to the old thread and have yet to be refreshed, I see!
Keith L.
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Bernard Downes,
An Irish scientist has traced the “speed” gene in the Thoroughbred to the Shetland pony and extinct Galloway with the modern-day variant tracing to the stallion Nearctic.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/irish-scientist-traces-racehorse-speed-to-ponies-537143.html#.Tx7x3wzL9KU.twitter
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