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The three 3-year-old colts who were noteworthy winners last Saturday – Out of Bounds, Alpha, and Discreet Dancer – are now among the top 12 betting interests for the Kentucky Derby. That is according to the future book Derby odds just released by Wynn Las Vegas, one of the few Las Vegas race books that still offer future book Derby wagering.
Discreet Dancer, who ran off with an allowance race at Gulfstream for his second impressive victory there from as many career starts, was pegged at 20-1.
Alpha, who rebounded from a beating in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a decisive score in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, now stands at 25-1.
And Out of Bounds, who raised his game in his first start around two turns to take the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, is surprisingly the highest price of the three at 30-1.
Right now, Liaison, winner of the CashCall Futurity, and Union Rags, winner of the Champagne and narrowly beaten runner up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, are co-favorites at Wynn for the Derby at 12-1 each.
Hansen, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, is currently third choice at 18-1.
Joining Discreet Dancer at 20-1 are Creative Cause, winner of the Norfolk and close third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Rousing Sermon, a close second in the CashCall Futurity.
Pegged at 25-1 along with Alpha are Algorithms, who made it 2 for 2 with an allowance victory at Gulfstream last month, Ever So Lucky, runner up in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and Gemologist, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Rounding out the top 12 at 30-1 along with Out of Bounds is Secret Circle. Secret Circle finished second at the heavy favorite to Out of Bounds in the Sham.
[MORE: Complete list of Kentucky Derby future odds from Wynn]
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My derby pick is gemologist a nice looking tiznow kid winstar+pletcher=winner
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Out of bounds...is out of sight merely needs to keep going forward and not get injured
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Did anyone see the turn of foot with Sabercat in the Delta Jackpot? I'll take all the 40-1 I can get right now.
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How can I make a KD future bet?
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Some of my same thoughts Mike regarding Santiva on Saturday. Although, I was thinking more on the lines of Place/Show. At any rate, could be a nice addition to a exotic play
TP
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A name to remember, folks: Casual Trick. You'll get Nick Zito for a trainer, too!
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We are getting closer to a TC. You may say why...with a 20 horse crap shoot in the Derby, you have to be lucky AND good. You'd be right...initialy...but the crop of foals that are coming out...Bernardini's, Tapit's, Empire Makers, Curlin's, Steet Sense/Cry etc.. the chances are that with the Fillies and Mares that are dominating RA, Zenyatta, Rags, Royal Delta, etc. that the tide will turn soon to colts. I see within the next five years a TC winner and maybe a colt for the ages. It will be a large colt that will race greenly around one turn...but win. It will win it's first two turn race at the wire. It will lead up to the Derby with a dominating performance. It will win the Derby and Preakness handily. Then it will finish the Belmont in dominant fashion and promptly be sold to IEAH stables. Despite that, it will win the Haskell and move onto the classic where it will win going away.
Oh well...it's nice to dream.....
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Agree completely, Turfdocta - When I had Eskanderaya (spelling?) at 20 something to 1, and he didn't even go, that was it for me. I also had Drosselmeyer, whom I gave up on before his Belmont win. I guess if you have $$$ to burn and want to take a small shot, fine. Otherwise, no. Now we even have Derby future exactas (ridiculous). What's next - Having a future pick-6 on the Derby day card? Having a Derby superfecta future bet? No way, no thanks!
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Out of Bounds has the fattest rump that I have seen in a long time. His big butt will help him get the distance down the stretch.
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its the two year olds that transform to three.......and if you dont know then....well dont bet.....its a great campaign since there really isnt anythin for four and ups anymore. so try it this year follow the twos and bet him on 1/1/13....as for this year>>>>>>>the derby winner comes out of fla good luck study replays its a good bet if you cash $200 win ticket at 75-1...kinda makes it worthwhile DONT IT THO
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How is betting futures a worse bet than betting maiden claimers on a Wednesday? I don't understand. I would think those who bet every race are the ones needing rehab.
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Three words: Fire On Ice
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Although I agree on this being the worst type of bet to make, I am surprised that My Miss Aurelia is not included in the top choices. There is a horse that has already run and WON at a mile and a half in Peru against the best older horses there and is considered, by many, as the second coming of Canonero. Where is he on this list? At least he doesn't have to answer the distance question and MMA doesn't need to answer the class question.
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I had the Sham winner last week in the Eqibase handicapping contest. I am sticking with out of bounds
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Betting the KD future book in January may be the worst bet around. Horses are listed at 18-1 and 20-1 to WIN the derby, when they are at least that amount to even make the race. In a full field of 20, unless you are the second coming of Big Red you will likely go off at no lower that 7/2 or 4/1 as the choice. I'll take my chance on the first Saturday in May that I can get value on a horse that has been healthy and proven himself for the past 5 months. A bet in January on a a horse running against 19 others in May at only 20-1???? PLEASE! If you gave me 75-1 or 100-1 on Alpha or Hanson, MAYBE. Think back just 2 months ago...wasn't that odds on Union Rags weaving like a drunken sailor on liberty in Thailand?... and You want me to bet him at 20-1 going 1 1/4 miles 5 months from now?????? NO THANKS!
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Mike,
In lieu of commenting on the actual odds at this point, let me opine - at the risk of being premature and with my fingers crossed - that this 3 yo crew appears to be more talented than last year's Derby crop! No disrespect to Caleb's Posse (I believe he is a super late-running sprinter) but when we've gotten to the point that a horse without a two-turn victory of note is as deserving of the 3 yo Eclipse Award as any other contemporary - we're indeed talking about a division that is defined by mediocrity.
And that's something the sport desperately needs - solid 3yo's to make for a memorable Triple Crown!
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if you can place the bet in vegas , find it somewhat appealing .the article is just to create interest,which it does . so for me $ 100 win on out of bounds and empire way in general even though i follow all major races , and am east coast based, feel california has the jump this year and as tom durkin likes to say have a good day at the big a
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Last year was bad. Let's start fresh. Union Rags looks fine and I love Hansen's style and attitude. Hopefully this years crop is not as fragile as last years. Hopefully the best horse run at least 2 times before the derby and not kept the best secret known to man. Let's party on the upcoming saturdays and enjoy what should be fun days. Ed
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