11/29/2011 11:19AM

Early Peek At Kentucky Derby Future Odds


With the Kentucky Jockey Club, Remsen, and Hollywood Prevue having been run over the Thanksgiving weekend, I thought it would be fun to check in on the latest Kentucky Derby future book odds, courtesy of the race and sports book at Wynn Las Vegas.

It will come as no surprise that the first two Derby favorites are Union Rags and Hansen, who were just a head apart when second and first, respectively, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It is also no surprise that the Juvenile loser is favored over the winner because Union Rags did lose a ton of ground during his wide trip throughout and was probably best, although I do admit I was a little disappointed in him because if he was the horse I suspected he might be, he would have gotten up despite the ground loss.

However, the price disparity between Union Rags, who previously won the Champagne and Saratoga Special, and Hansen, who also won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, is a surprise. Union Rags is currently the clear-cut Derby favorite at 8-1, with Hansen all the way out at 18-1.

Creative Cause, a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only a length, and winner of the Norfolk and Best Pal before that, is third choice at 20-1.

Fourth choice on the Wynn line at 25-1 is Gemologist, who made it 3 for 3 with his decisive victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

El Padrino, Ever So Lucky, and Secret Circle are all grouped at 35-1. El Padrino was a gaining third in the Remsen, beaten less than a length, after a runaway maiden score in the slop at Belmont two starts back. Ever So Lucky was a game second in the Kentucky Jockey Club as the favorite off a visually impressive, if not fast, debut win at Churchill two back. Secret Circle made it 3 for 3 when he won the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint after disputing a scorching early pace.

Some other prices worthy of mention include 50-1 on Liaison, O’Prado Again, and So Brilliant. Liaison won the Real Quiet, O’Prado Again won the Remsen, and So Brilliant won the Hollywood Prevue.

At 75-1 are Dullahan, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity before finishing a rallying fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Sabercat, who made it three straight with his emphatic score in the Delta Downs Jackpot.

Finally, this one caught the eye: My Miss Aurelia, undefeated in four starts, easy winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and a mortal lock to be champion 2-year-old filly, is out there at 125-1.

Dave R. More than 1 year ago
I love the first saturday in may, It's my Christmas
partisan More than 1 year ago
Always enlightening - thanks Mike (and oh how I miss you abusing MC on Friday mornings!!). My thinking about these early future bets is that you need to somehow make a line on whether the horse will even make it to the first Saturday in May and then, for the horses that have shown ability more than once, what would be it's odds if the Derby were run in six weeks (thus minimizing having to make the impossible line referred to above), then it makes some sense to make a small bet, like $10, on a filly like MMA at 125-1, who would seem to have a legitimate shot if the Derby were to be run in February (and she ran in it), so you don't have to kick yourself because either: a) you didn't bet her Derby Day and she wins at 5-1, or b) deplete your bankroll by a few hundred dollars watching her lose, because you'd still either have more than a grand to celebrate or a few hundred to invest in another wager. But I do confess to being tempted to bet $20 or $40 on Sabercat - at those odds.
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Gold Megillah...& the G3 race you mentioned was on Turf..& he finished 12 lengths back..The TC races are run on Dirt. Not exactly the same. Also, not a ringing endorsement for a TC nominee. & finally, just because it was sloppy in his maiden win, does not make his 1:41 Mile Split any better. Slop can & usually is quite Fast.....1:41 is crawling..Good time though for a 5K Claimer......Look somewhere else for a better horse.... Just saying.......
Eric Kammerer More than 1 year ago
I love longshots- what better than 150/1 odds on Exfactor. Good luck to Bernie Flint- would love to see a longtime Churchill trainer hit it big....
joe walter More than 1 year ago
THose who vote for UR for top 2 year old are downright wacky. Hansen beat UR to remain undefeated in the top race offered. He IS the top 2 yo of 2011. If UR is worth more money or might have a better 2012 doesn't apply to this year's Eclipse.
Old Timer More than 1 year ago
While I would really love to see Matz take another Derby with Union Rags, those odds do not appeal. As someone else noted it is crazy trying to rpedict anything at this point. However if I had a few bucks burning a hole in my pocket I'd toss a $20 on Sabercat and another on O'Prado Again at those odds.
Bill Daniel More than 1 year ago
It would sure be nice for DRF or someone to do an analysis of the past Future Wagering odds and show which one of the horses that were shown on the lists actually made it to the Derby, and if they made it, how did they do. Bill in Atlanta
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Gold Megillah ? That was some performance..Of course, 'til I saw the 1:41 Mile Split. I'd have to seriously consider who he beat..In this case, Nobody./ & it took him 4 races to break his maiden.. May I suggest new batteries for your clock..........
ron h More than 1 year ago
on Gold Megillah...while it did take until his 4th race to break his maiden....his 3rd race was a graded stakes race....as far as the 1:41 mile split, it was on a sloppy track...just saying
Gerry More than 1 year ago
I disagree with the comment that Union Rags should have gotten up regardless of the trip. First, he is a 2yo, and second, I have read the track condition was beyond horrible. As one commentator put it "Like running through peanut butter". I think he is the horse you think he can be. My opinion and we know what they say about opinions.
vicstu More than 1 year ago
I agree with Scott. Lets leave the what ifs out of the Eclipse Award. Hansen ran every step of ground that he covered and did all the work, against the bias...UR is a nice colt with a nice future. But that is the future. If we are going to use the ground covered line of reasoning then Big Brown was, factually speaking (look at the Sheets), THE fastest horse to ever run in the Kentucky Derby. Enough said...