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Belmont Stakes Eve: Brooklyn, Poker, Carryover
By Steven Crist
5:00 pm: With 27-1 and 61-1 winners already in the books, it's looking like a safe bet that there there will be a two-day carryover into Saturday's Belmont Stakes card, where the sequence consists of four Grade and two Grade 2 stakes races. The lineup:
I'll be posting an expanded version of that chart, with A-B-C-X grades and comments on all the entrants, before departing for the track tomorrow morning and abandoning y'all for a day at the races. I'll be back Sunday to make excuses for why I was not the lone winner of the $1 million guaranteed pool. (The pick-4, which begins with the Woody Stephens, is also guaranteed at a million.)
My first impression of the Saturday stakes is that while they're a little thin on numbers, they're trickier than the field sizes would suggest. Turbulent Descent will be singled on a lot of tickets at 3-5 in the first leg, the Acorn, but it gets a lot harder from there. Gio Ponti is the next shortest price in the sequence at 6-5 in the Manhattan, but the returning two-time grass champion was second to 21-1 stablemate Winchester in this same spot last year and has lost 8 of his last 10 starts.
First let's get through the upcoming Poker Stakes and Brooklyn Handicap to close out Friday's card at Belmont, where racing resumed today after yesterday's heat-induced cancellation. It seems unlikely that with only a $36k carryover, anyone went deep enough to use Persky's Heart ($56.50) in the 6th and Unforgettable P J ($124.50) in the 7th, but we'll find out soon enough.
5:30 pm: Courageous Cat, making his first start since October and just his fourth start since running second to Goldikova in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Mile, easily reined in 20-1 Yield Bogey in the stretch to win a five-horse Poker Stakes as the 9-to-10 favorite.
Even with $5.80 and $3.80 winners in the 8th and 9th, there are indeed no live pick-6 tickets heading into the Brooklyn, so there's a two-day carryover into Saturday's card.
Looks like Unforgettable P J was even more than 61-1 in the pick-4: The willpays for a sequence beginning with $124.50, $5.80 and $3.80 winners -- a $686 parlay --are paying between $3,447 (on currently 7-5 Drosselmeyer) and $16,541 (on 5-1 Alma d'Oro).
The Brooklyn is the first half of a double with tomorrow's Belmont Stakes. The bet is available online at NYRA Rewards for the first time this year if you want to try to get down in the next eight minutes.
6:00 pm: Birdrun ($7.30), necked out by stablemate Drosselmeyer in the prep for the Brooklyn, reversed that decision today with a daylight victory in the G2 $150k Brooklyn. Birdrun completed an $8,267 (for $2) pick-4.
The carryover into Saturday is $144,003. Get to work.
7:00 pm: Here are those Brooklyn-Belmont double willpays:
No. 1 – Master of Hounds, $34.60
No. 2 – Stay Thirsty, $237
No. 3 – Ruler On Ice, $434
No. 4 – Santiva, $81
No. 5 – Brilliant Speed, $71.50
No. 6 – Nehro, $48.80
No. 7 – Monzon, $593
No. 8 – Prime Cut, $281
No. 9 – Animal Kingdom, $34.20
No. 10 – Mucho Macho Man, $93.50
No. 11 – Isn’t He Perfect, $671
No. 12 – Shackleford, $75
Doesn't look like Master of Hounds is going to be 10-1. Maybe someone who loves him took a big coldpunch (not me), but at $34.60 he's a very close second choice to Animal Kingdom ($34.20). And Brilliant Speed is shorter than the Preakness winner?
Rick: They only started adding stakes to Belmont Day in the 1980's. Back then, most of them were overnight stakes with $40,000 and later $50,000 added purses (then the minimum for Graded stakes consideration), though a couple of them (most notably the Jaipur) actually got Graded status (the Genuine Risk, no longer run, actually was a Grade 2 at the time it was disbanded and the Jaipur, now run on closing weekend has been a Grade 3 for years). The Colin was another stake that was a Grade 3 after starting out as an overnight stake on Belmont Day. Today, horsemen expect the stakes-laden cards because it allows them (and the horse's owners) to be in the same place on the same day. The cards also are more attractive to more casual fans who might otherwise be on the fence on coming out to see The Belmont. What amazes me about the '75 Belmont card is no turf races, but as I recall, wasn't there some bad weather right before that Belmont, and they likely decided not to card any grass races because of that? Also, turf racing wasn't as big as it is now and exotics that require big fields were not en vogue like they are today. Those are the big changes.
Dread watching the NBC broadcast !! Bring out Oprah so we can see all of the real racing fans.
Out of the Money, not ready. Shackleford trainer Romans has an entry in Belmont Day race 1 which has had nine races lifetime and nine different jockeys aboard. And yet he did not give the mount to his jockey in the Belmont Stakes, Jesus Castanon. Castanon would have had a prep to see if his gear and physicality were a 'systems go' using this prep @ 8.5, first time on turf mount. This connection will take them part way. Not prepared, possible confusion by jockey at 3/8th pole while hometown jocks gain on experience working the Big Sandy. PS, I had been using this horse large including Florida Derby. And prior to this thought that if he didn't lose the FD by a head, he would have been the favorite in the KD and would have won the 5.5 million dollar bonus in the Preakness/FD bonus. Bridgmohan is also solo for mounts for the day with Santiva who is, so far, not meeting his potential for longer races. Trainer Kenneally has no other entries. Running out of excuses is Moucho MM who will in all probability switch to double back tape to adhere his shoes (last race glued shoe fell off, bad technology). The connection also switched jocks. So Dominguez abandons Stay Thirsty, a vanity horse. Two too many switches to find new ways to get M3 to move forward. The June birther will not advance. Isn't He Perfect gets M3 jock who was replaced and the horse isn't. Ditto for Monzon. Contenders Six horses/Key Animal Kingdom first and second in tri wheel - Proven Brilliant Speed - World class jockey closes from out of the clouds Master of Hounds - Distance will serve horse and jockey Ruler On Ice - Seems to fit / handle more ground Nehro - Add Distance = in the money Prime Cut - Prado waits and waits, conserves this horse. Known Belmont spoiler
I saw Shackleford at 16-1 ?? I don't get it. In the Preakness he got all the negitive press. With all of the bad comments, (never heard one good thing about him) and he stayed right at his morning line of 12-1 and never drifted up. Now he gets co-top billing with Animal Kingdom and goes higher than he did in the preakness? I thought he would be too low to bet so I just bet him in exotics. In the preakness I thought I was going to get 15-1 to 20-1 but didn't. Now I was expecting 4-1 and maybe second choice with Nero being the wise guy horse and third chioce, but it looks like we got a lot of wise guy horses going in the Belmont.
A litlle rain my pretty No hoarse shoes just flippers Tonight: A few showers early with scattered thunderstorms arriving overnight. Low 57F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%. Tomorrow: Showers and thundershowers likely. A few storms may be severe. High 76F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Tomorrow night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 54F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. May the rainbow end on my hand holding my auto tote ticket Good luck to all and am excited to see the new x factor on the matrix
I've enjoyed watching the Brooklyn as a 1 1/2 mile race run the day before the Belmont for the last few years. It is almost always a perfect example of how alien the 1 1/2 mile distance is to American racing. To avoid making visibly poor decisions almost all jockeys play an obvious cat and mouse canter game and then set their mounts down to run with 3/8ths to go. I'll take a flyer on the Belmont tomorrow, but the undercard interests me a lot more. I have some of those old programs to ML/NJ. Can you even imagine them trying to card some of those conditions today? You have horses eligible for NW1 running and taking serious cash in the Classics for millions of dollars. What no state bred races in '75? When you have a chief executive who states that "the good old days weren't necessarily the good old days" what can be expected. That commented, best of luck to all tomorrow.
Can someone post the will pays for Brooklyn (Birdrun) and Belmont? Thanks!!
Came across the program for Belmont Day in 1975 recently while looking for something else. Here's the card: 1 $12,000 1m NW2X 3yo 9 ran 2 $9,000 5 1/2f MSW c&g 2yo 9 ran 3 $9,000 1 1/8m MSW 3&4yo 7 ran 4 $25,000 1 1/16m f&m NW3$m 4up 5 ran 5 $15,000 1 1/16m NW3X 3up 8 ran 6 $20,000 1/ 16m f&m NW4X 3up 6 ran 7 $150,000 The Belmont 9 ran (8 betting interests) 8 $25,000 1m NW3$m 4up 7 ran 9 $10,000 1 1/8m N2L 3 up 10 ran (no turf races carded, track was fast for the Belmont at least)
Master of Hounds took a lot of money in the double,doesn't look like he'll be 10-1 tomorrow.I'm probably getting on the Shackleford bandwagon too late but I think 9-2 is fair and there's a good chance he drifts higher.
nyra has screwed the bettors again, where are the prices for the brooklyn/belmont dd. All they are showing is the exacta prices
- 1.Posted 05/08/2013 04:00PM
- 2.Posted 05/18/2013 06:32PM
- 3.Posted 05/18/2013 12:16PM
- 4.Posted 05/18/2013 09:48PM
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