| ANDY_BEYER: | Hello, everyone. We'll be ready to start in a couple minutes. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Breeders' Cup chat, we'll start with a question from spinninv... |
| spinninv: | Q: Hi Andy I dont like playing even money horses, but LITF is the sentimental favorite too. Do you think Lost will lose the rest of the field?? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He's going to be very tough to beat. Every wise guy has been looking to bet against him when he gets a legitimate test, but this Sprint field is really not too strong. Is there a speedster who can pressure him early? I doubt it. |
| Beyer_want_2_b: | Q: Mr.Beyer, Samurai had a dream trip in the Champagn. Is it reasonable to say that performance wasn't that impressive as all the hype? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Well, I don't know if pressing a half mile in 43 3/5 is exactly a dream trip. But First Samurai was essentially winning a match race with Henny Hughes in both of his last two starts; he didn't have to worry about any closers in the field. He's going to face a different scenario Saturday. |
| BruceF: | Q: Am I safe in leaving Adieu out of Trifecta and Super ? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Adieu has been admirably consistent, but as a speed-figure guy I can't use her either. Her best figure in her five-race career is an 83. I can't imagine anybody winning this race without running near the mid-90s. |
| monmouthpark: | Q: Hey, Andy, With Leroi working with front bar shoes, valixir seemingly coming to form again, and singletary looking better then ever, can leroi be upset |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Leroi is definitely the one to beat in the Mile, and I certainly wouldn't want to spend too much money spreading against him in pick sixes, etc., but I do worry about the condition of the turf course and his ability to handle soft going. He did win on a supposedly yielding track at Woodbine, but how yiielding could it have been if he won in 1:35. Running on soft turf is a totally different game, and that's a key factor in the Mile. |
| afleetalex: | Q: Anything in Starcrafts pedigree that suggests dirt affinity? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I can't comprehend why they entered Starcraft in the Classic--let alone put up $800,000 to run him. Not only does he lack the pedigree, but he's a miler--he was regularly beaten going 1 1/4 miles on the grass, and coudln't even win at the distance in New Zealand. He could finish last. |
| Oldentimes: | Q: What race do you feel has the highest likelihood of "falling apart" due to pace? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | There are a couple of them. The Juvenile, for sure. First Samurai, Henny Hughes and Private Vow are all big speed types, among others. I am looking at this race as a possible pace-meltdown and am trying to find a closer. I think also that the Distaff is going to have a pretty contentious pace that may cause Ashado to have a less-than-perfect trip, for once in her life. |
| Wonderboy517: | Q: I give Choctaw Nation a shot in Classic based on Beyers-What do you think? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He has a shot. Not only are his figures competitive, but you have to respect him from the trip-handicapping standpoint. He had no chance against the slow pace last time, yet he finished within two lengths of Rock Hard Ten. |
| tony2ker: | Q: Andrew, can't find any speed in Classic, shouldn't RHT control pace? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | You can't? Saint Liam is faster than Rock Hard Ten, though they've taught him to control it. But he's going to have to hustle when he breaks from post 13. |
| yipyappyyip: | Q: Society Selection had a horrible trip in her race two back, then makes this five wide premature move in her latest, only to flatten out...can the switch to Prado and a better ride at this distance make up the ground on Ashado and Happy Ticket? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Society Selection has spent much of her career having difficult trips, usually at the same time than Ashado is having perfect ones. I think that with a potentially fast pace in the Distaff, this could be Society Selection's day--and end Jerkens' drought in the BC. |
| Slew77: | Q: Timeform vs. Beyer figures, can you compare?? How do you adjust??? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | The popular rule of thumb is to subtract 12-14 points from the Timeform numbers to get the Beyer equivalent. It's not perfect (and it doesn't work well with poorer horses) but it's OK with the type who come to the Breeders' Cup. For timeform, a superhorse might get a rating of 140; for us, a 126 would be superhorse material. |
| bigsexyhd: | Q: Knights Templar doesn't have Beyers far from Folklore. Isn't it silly to dismiss based on facing Woodbine horses? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I wouldn't dismiss her because he's from Woodbine. I would dismiss her because she earned that 93 loose on the lead in a slow-pace race, a scenario she's not going to see on Saturday. |
| Dan: | Q: Do you think a trainer like Rick Dutrow is disadvantaged in big races with the additional scrutiny preventing him going to the top shelf of his horse "medicine" cabinet? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Gosh, you're awfully cynical about the Sport of Kings. |
| Oldentimes: | Q: Who would you consider the most overrated "false favorite" that the public will overbet? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I hate Ouija Board in the F&M Turf, with only one win this year, in a crummy race. (It's listed as a G3 stakes, but there wasn't a bona fide stakes horse in the field.) It's the equivalent of a horse running a figure of 90 in an allowance race and then stepping up into the Breeders' Cup. |
| horseyguy: | Q: How do the "figs" come into play with a 2 yr old vs. an older horse? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I can't be devoted as slavishly to the figs in 2-year-old races where the horses have run only two or three times and have a lot of room for improvement. Sorcerer's Stone's best race of 93 is inferior to all of First Samurai's last three numbers, yet I'm prepared to bet on Sorcerer's Stone. I would rarely play a seasoned older horse who is so far behind on the figures. |
| cardcapper: | Q: Andy I really like Stevie Wonderboy's chances in the Juvenile, what do you think of his chances? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He was the most visually impressive of all the horses in the field. I looked at him hard because I am looking for a stretch-runner in that race. But when you look at the horses who were behind him, the company suggests that the performance wasn't as impressive as it looked. The 2-3 finishers in his race came back to run in the Norfolk and got buried. |
| Big_John_NJ: | Q: Track bias always seems to matter most to me -- unless you have a sole controlling speed in the race -- do you agree???? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I always look closely for biases, but I doubt that we will see one at Belmont on Saturday. John Passero is the best track superintendent in the business--I observed his work in Maryland for years--and he is very attuned to the importance of keeping tracks uniform and fair. The old Belmont dead rail has largely disappeared since he's been on the job. |
| Turf_paradise_guy: | Q: Lost in the Fog superhorse or wll managed sprinter? ...I think he gets beat against older |
| ANDY_BEYER: | The Breeders' Cup is going to reveal how good he is--I don't think any of us know for sure. He has been hyped too much on the basis of beating patsies time and time again. I don't blame the trainer--that's good management. I'd like to see him give a superhorse performance on Saturday, but if he doesn't blow away the field and earn a 120+ speed figure, I hope people will stop talking about him as a horse of the year candidate. |
| Skip: | Q: Do you think previous BC records of Jockeys, Trainers, owners and Horses is important? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I do. I'm very wary of Frankel, based on his dismal record over the years. But there are certain outstanding horsemen--notably Mott, Mandella and McGaughey--whose skill you always have to respect. I'd be very much against Rock Hard Ten if it weren't for the memory of what Mandella did with Pleasantly Perfect. |
| 3dee: | Q: I'd like to make a case for Wend but her figs are low - can you find a way to back her? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Absolutely. Her best flgure is not much different from the other contenders in the F&M Turf. And unlike many of the old campaigners in that field, she's lightly raced with some potential improvement ahead of her. My main concern is that her one bad race came on a yielding turf course. |
| gr: | Q: andy can shakespeare run the whole mile and a half |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He just won a G1 at 1 1/2 miles, so of course the answer is yes. But I share your question, in light of the Turf Classic, about whether that distance is optimal for him. I hope it is: I took 14-1 in a future bet on the Turf after he won the 1 1/8 mile stakes. But I would have liked to have seen him win more authoritatively in Turf Classic. |
| afleetalex: | Q: Sensation seems to be the wiseguy horse in the fillies, what are your thoughts? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I'm using Sensation in my various plays, but the big figure she earned in her last race is a little ambigious. The track variant changed in the middle of that card, and she was in a middle race where we could have made the figure a 98 or made it considerably lower. I think the 98 is right--but there's not enough evidence yet to say for sure. Alas, fig-making is not always an exact science. |
| Stoneyburk: | Q: Does Stream Cat have a shot if the pace melts? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | No, his figures are much too weak. |
| el_jefe: | Q: I am just in who do you like in the turf race |
| ANDY_BEYER: | In my progressive pick six play I'm going deeper in the turf race than any other - there are at least six or seven who can win. While I can't eliminate the Europeans, I am a little wary of them because Euro invaders have done rather poorly in all the big American stakes races this fall. I'm going for a bomb in the turf: Gun Salute. He ran an outstanding race on a yielding course in the Secretariat at Arlington. That was the same day as the Arlington Million, and his final time was the same as Kitten's Joy. |
| eaflorida: | Q: Call me crazy, but I like Gorella in the Mile. What are your thoughts here? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | You're crazy. |
| djb: | Q: What are the chances of Borrego In the classic. I think his last two races were impressive. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think he's the horse to beat. Of the three leading contenders, I have fewer questions about him. Saint Liam is unproved at the distance; Rock Hard Ten may simply not be good enough. Borrego has been a disappointment for much of his career, but he's in great form now, and at Belmont he's found the track that perfectly suits his style. |
| Title_Nine: | Q: What do you think of the Pletcher horses? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think he might get blanked. I don't like Ashado--I never have--and I don't like Adieu. |
| exmaryland: | Q: off subject a bit, but you mention 2 trainers in NY beatiug system-care to elaborate |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Obviously, I can't, since this is a very subjective opinion about who might be cheating, and it wouldn't be fair to accuse anybody of cheating without offering proof. But when I see trainers who repeatedly take over new horses and transform them dramatically, I view them as probable cheaters when I handicap. |
| jensen: | Q: Andy, With a big field and possible traffic issues, does Sun King have a legitimate shot in the Classic considering his multiple running style? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I would say the size of the field is the least of his problems. His problem is that he's not good enough. |
| rotti: | Q: Shirocco @20/1 morning line with probable tuf conditions Saturday. Thoughts? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I am told that he is a monster on soft turf. He may not have the credentials of the other two Euros, but you've got to use him. Azamour, by the way, is very likely to be hindered by soft going; he much prefers a firm surface. |
| Dustin_: | Q: You say you've never liked Ashado? Why? With her usual performance she becomes the leading filly/mare money earner ever. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | She always seems to benefit from a soft trip--like her ground-saving win in last year's Distaff or her slow-pace win in the Beldame recently. Yet with all her easy trips, she usually earns figures in the low 100s--compared with numbers of 110+ that the best fillies and mares of recent years have earned. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Thanks everybody for joining me. My analysis of all the races will be in both tomorrow's DRF and Washington Post. Have a great Breeders' Cup day! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Read Andy Beyer's Breeders' Cup analysis. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | NEW RELEASE: Handicapping Contest Handbook - Revised and Updated Edition. By Noel Michaels. On sale now in the DRF Press online bookstore! Click the ad to your right for details. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of our good friend Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
