BC Graded Entries with Odds & Analysis (Pdf)

Breeders' Cup Distaff analysis

Most of the dirt races on this year's Breeders' Cup card look like wide-open events primed for upsets. On the flip side, this year's turf races lack their usual strong European participation. The result is imposing favorites that will be very difficult to beat in at least two out of the three grass races. This is in sharp contrast to most years when there are often strong favorites in many of the dirt races and total toss-ups in all the turf events.

If you must look for chalk on this Breeders' Cup Day, look for it in the grass races with Kitten's Joy in the Turf, Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf, and/or Six Perfections in the Mile. Then go ahead and swing for the fences in the main track races, which are all loaded with legitimate contenders and live overlays.

Most of all, enjoy your Breeders' Cup Day. Best of luck.

BREEDERS' CUP SELECTIONS:

DISTAFF
Lone Star - Race 2
Fillies & mares, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $2,000,000
1) 10-Island Fashion
2) 3-Tamweel
3) 5-Nebraska Tornado

Without Azeri and Sightseek, this race is a total tossup and could realistically be won by almost anyone. The Distaff filly with the best credentials looks like Island Fashion, who strung together several good races earlier this year including back-to-back Grade 1 wins at Santa Anita and a second-place finish against the boys in the Santa Anita Handicap. Island Fashion took much of the year off after an ill-advised trip to Japan, but then looked good winning the Lady's Secret early this month in her first race back from a layoff. In the past, Island Fashion has improved dramatically in her second starts off a layoff (7 and 11-point Beyer improvements), and she figures to move forward again on Breeders' Cup Day. Island Fashion has shown she's capable of posting a 111 Beyer, and that's better than the rest of these can do on their best days. Tamweel has quietly put together a good season since being switched to the dirt five races ago, earning three wins and two seconds. The runner-up finishes in her last two races were behind the likes of Azeri and Adoration, and she'll face none tougher than those two in this spot. Nebraska Tornado has never run on dirt, but she'll be tough here if able to handle the new surface after facing the best European fillies and colts all year for dangerous BC trainer Andre Fabre. Edgar Prado picks up the mount.

JUVENILE FILLIES
Lone Star - Race 3
2-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) 5-Culinary
2) 10-Sweet Catomine
3) 9-Sense of Style

Culinary has only raced twice, but she's been impressive both times including her stakes debut win in the Arlington Washington Lassie over eventual Alcibiades winner Runway Model last time out. Culinary has never tried two turns, but should handle the extra distance after going 2-for-2 in one turn miles at Arlington. Additionally, horses who run well at Arlington usually take kindly to the track at Lone Star Park. Culinary is one of at least five horses who have a big chance to win the Juvenile Fillies, but her odds should offer more value than some of the rest. Others with a good chance in this race include Sweet Catomine, Sense of Style, Dance Away Capote, and Mona Lisa, just to name a few. Sweet Catomine destroyed the best from the West in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita last time, earning an 89 Beyer figure in a gallop under an easy hand ride. Sense of Style was the best from the East until she finished a disappointing fifth in the Alcibiades, but she shouldn't be forgotten about based on that one race. She adds Lasix for the Breeders Cup, and trainer Patrick Biancone got her the two turn experience he wanted in that race at Keeneland. Another from the Alcibiades, Dance Away Capote, also should improve here after breaking poorly in that race from an outside post. Finally, don't forget about Euro invader Mona Lisa. She's bred to handle the dirt, and trainer Aidan O'Brien is reportedly very high on her in this spot. Could she be the next Johannesburg? Balletto, meanwhile, will likely be one of the favorites here, however, her one-paced running style seems much better suited to Belmont Park than to the two-turn layout at Lone Star.

MILE
Lone Star - Race 4
1 mile Turf, purse: $1,680,000
1) 6-Artie Schiller
2) 11-Six Perfections
3) 8-Diamond Green

With everyone lavishing so much attention onto Kitten's Joy in the Turf, how come Artie Schiller continues to fly under the radar in the Mile at 10-1 odds in the DRF morning line? Artie Schiller has won five of his six turf starts this year, and the only loss came to the aforementioned Kitten's Joy in the 1 1/4-mile Virginia Derby. Artie Schiller toyed with 3-year-olds in his last two stakes wins (won by a combined 9 1/2 lengths), and while he's never faced older stakes horses, he did prove his quality by breaking a course record at 1 1/8 miles at Belmont in his last race. Artie Schiller has good tactical speed and a rocket-propelled turn-of-foot, which should suit him well at Lone Star. Defending champion Six Perfections is back after rallying from post 12 over a better field last year at Santa Anita. Her 2004 season has not been as good as her 2003 season was, but don't let that discourage you from playing her. She picks up first-time Lasix for this race, is reunited with Jerry Bailey, and already has proven she can handle firm turf and tight turns with last year's win at Santa Anita, which is almost identical to the layout of Lone Star's turf course. If you're looking for a European at a better price, Diamond Green could be the way to go. He flopped in his last race but was very solid in the four races before that against many of Europe's best milers. Frankie Dettori takes the mount for trainer Andre Fabre.

SPRINT
Lone Star - Race 5
6 furlongs, purse: $1,060,000
1) 5-Kela
2) 2-Speightstown
3) 9-Gold Storm

Unlike the Classic where fresh horses have gone down in flames repeatedly over the last few years, a layoff of a month or more has been a major positive leading up to the BC Sprint. Cajun Beat (6 weeks), Orientate (8 weeks), Squirtle Squirt (5 weeks), Reraise (6 weeks), Lit de Justice (10 weeks), and Desert Stormer (11 weeks) all won the Sprint off layoffs similar to this year's best fresh horse, Kela (11 weeks). Kela won back-to-back graded sprints at Del Mar including the six-furlong Grade 1 Big Crosby (112 Beyer), and the Grade 2 O'Brien (116 Beyer) where he beat division leader Pico Central. He also owns a stakes win at Lone Star in the Texas Mile-G3 where he earned a 114 speed figure on an off track. Speigtstown was the best sprinter in the East all year long, and it might still be too early to give up on him after just one sub-par outing last time in the Vosburgh. A repeat of any of his last three wins would be enough to beat this crew. Unlike Speightstown, Gold Storm comes into this race in tip-top form off a win in the Arlington Sprint (111 Beyer) and a second in the Phoenix-G3 (110 Beyer) in his last two starts. If you're looking for a Lone Star horse for the course, this is it. Gold Storm has raced at this track four times with three wins and one third-place finish.

FILLY & MARE TURF
Lone Star - Race 6
1 3/8 miles, purse: $1,410,000
1) 5-Ouija Board
2) 7-Light Jig
3) 11-Yesterday

Many of the top rung European horses seem to have avoided this year's Breeders' Cup, but one notable exception is the sensational Ouija Board, who went 3-for-3 this year against fillies before running a huge third against males last time out in France's biggest race, the Arc de Triomphe. Even if Ouija Board has problems acclimating to the weather, or handling the firmer turf or the tighter turns, she's still probably so much better than the rest of these that it shouldn't matter. Of the Americans, the one possible standout is Light Jig, who won the Beverly Hills Handicap-G2 and the Yellow Ribbon-G1 in two of her last three starts. Trainer Bobby Frankel is an abysmal 2-for-57 in the Breeders' Cup, but one of his wins came in this race with Starine a couple years ago. Yesterday seems so far away from the form she displayed in Europe leading up to last year's Filly and Mare Turf when she finished third. However, she still shouldn't be ignored here because we already know she handles this kind of turf course based on last year's performance. She gets Lasix back for this race, and we also know that trainer Aidan O'Brien knows a thing or two about winning races on Breeders' Cup Day.

JUVENILE
Lone Star - Race 7
2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, purse: $1,500,000
1) 6-Proud Accolade
2) 1-Sun King
3) 8-Wilko

Proud Accolade has done nothing wrong yet in a three-race career that already includes a victory over Sun King and the previously undefeated Afleet Alex in the Champagne at Belmont in his last race. This will be his first two-turn experience, but he didn't look like a horse who was struggling to get the distance when earning a 100 Beyer in the Champagne. He could earn trainer Todd Pletcher his first Breeders' Cup win if he hasn't already earned one earlier on the card with horses like Speightstown. Sun King needs to turn the tables on Proud Accolade, but stands a chance to do so if the top pick doesn't handle two turns. Trainer Nick Zito declined to ship likely favorites Birdstone and Eurosilver to last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, so just the fact that he shows up this year with Sun King is a huge reason to believe Zito thinks his horse has what it takes to win. Of the two Europeans shipping in for this race, Wilko should offer the much better odds at something over 20-1. Wilko stretched out to a mile for the first time in his last race and seemed to improve despite a troubled third-place finish behind fellow Euro invader Scandinavia. Frankie Dettori takes the mount on Wilko, and anything is possible here with a clean trip.

TURF
Lone Star - Race 8
1 1/2 miles Turf, purse: $2,000,000
1) 4-Kitten's Joy
2) 7-Star Over the Bay
3) 5-Better Talk Now

Kitten's Joy might be one of the best American turf horses to come around for quite some time, and even though he's only a 3-year-old, he looks very good in this spot against what looks like one of the weakest BC Turf fields ever. Kitten's Joy is 8-for-9 on turf including a three-length win in the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington in a faster time than the older horses ran in the Arlington Million earlier on the same card. Kitten's Joy then came back to crush Magistretti in the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park, running his final two furlongs in a stunning :22.3. Any of the other horses entered in this year's Turf would be hard-pressed to beat him, even on their best day. California invader Star Over the Bay has been making a living by coasting to uncontested leads and holding on to win in all of his three most recent races. He may be a cut below some of these challengers, but he should once again be lone speed loose on the lead in this race which makes him very dangerous, at least for second, at morning-line odds of 8-1. Better Talk Now has been solid in all of his recent races, the best of which was his Grade 1 win in the three-turn Sword Dancer Handicap at Saratoga. After a slightly shorter two-turn turf marathon at Belmont last time, Better Talk Now will be back in a better three-turn 1 1/2-mile spot at Lone Star. Powerscourt figures to take a lot of money and might even be second choice in the betting, but he looks like a much better horse at 1 1/4-miles.

CLASSIC
Lone Star - Race 9
1 1/4 miles, purse: $4,000,000
1) 6-Roses in May
2) 9-Funny Cide
3) 7-Birdstone
4) 13-Dynever

No favorite has won the Classic for the past six years and the average winning payoff during that span has been $34.70. Therefore, this looks like a good spot to try and beat the chalk. This is especially true since favorites Ghostzapper and defending champ Pleasantly Perfect both are coming into this race off long layoffs - a strategy that has failed badly in recent years. Instead of the favorites, take your chances with Roses in May who comes into the Classic with a perfect 5-for-5 record this year topped by a win in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. In the Whitney, Roses in May showed, for the first time, that he doesn't need the lead to win while also proving that he can compete favorably against top caliber horses. This horse has a big heart, is as game as they come, and reminds one a lot of fellow Midwestern Classic winner Black Tie Affair who went wire-to-wire at 4-1 back in 1991. Like Black Tie Affair, Roses in May is a true road warrior who takes his track with him wherever he goes. Roses in May's five 2004 wins have come on five different tracks with five different jockeys aboard.

Funny Cide has quietly put together a good season this year topped off by a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out. We already know that Funny Cide is a horse who can string top performances together and get very, very good for a short span of time. He got good at the right time during last year's Triple Crown, and seems to be getting good now just in time for the Breeders' Cup to roll around. No matter what your opinion of Funny Cide is, there's no denying that he's a true 1 1/4-mile horse, and that's more than can be said for the majority of these rivals.

Of all the layoff horses in the Classic, Birdstone will offer the best value at something above his morning line of 6-1. Birdstone is already proven to be a layoff specialist after he went back to his home base at Saratoga and trained up to wins in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont and the 1 1/4-mile Travers earlier this year. He doesn't have a lot of believers, but he didn't have a lot of believers on Belmont Day or Travers Day, either.

Dynever has had an up-and-down season, but still must be respected here based on his third-place finish in this race at 15-1 odds last year. Dynever was freshened up for this race for most of the summer, but unlike some of his Classic rivals, he's had a prep and should benefit from his second-place finish in the Meadowlands Cup last time out. Volponi used a prep in the Meadowlands Cup en route to his upset victory over a field of underprepared rivals in the 2002 edition of the Classic.

Pleasantly Perfect is the defending champion of both the Dubai World Cup and the Breeders' Cup Classic, but it's highly questionable whether he's the same horse now that he was before his trip to Dubai this March. Last year he used a prep in the Goodwood Handicap at Santa Anita as a stepping stone to this race, but this year he enters off a 10-week layoff. Ghostzapper is a converted sprinter who should find this 10 furlong distance a bit too far despite nine-furlong wins in his last two races, which came in the slop at Monmouth and around one turn at Belmont. The seven week layoff and Bobby Frankel's 2-for-57 Breeders' Cup record also do not instill confidence in him at a short price.