WEDNESDAY, OCT. 27, 2004
| DRF_WebGrp: | Good evening everyone and welcome to tonight's chat...We'll begin with a question from lovesaction... |
| lovesaction: | Q: what do you think of Cuvee's chances in the Sprint? |
| Lauren Stich: | Actually, I think he is really being overlooked here. Was a very fast 2-y-o and is on comeback trail, somewhat like Gilded Time many years ago. Think he'll run big at huge odds, but may only get a minor part. |
| Native_Dancer: | Q: Does Ghostzapper figure to like 1M1/4 in the Classic or do you think this is stretching the limit on his preferred distance? Does the breeding give enough evidence to support his chances at 1M1/4? |
| Lauren Stich: | Although he started out his career sprinting, he certaibnly is bred to further being by Classic winner, Awesome Again. But remember, he has *never* been 1 1/4 miles, the pace will be very strong with Azeri and Roses in May, and he'll be short odds to do something he's never done. I like him, of course, but underneath in tri's. He beats me at low odds -- think Pleasantly Perfect is THE horse to beat at 1 1/4 miles. |
| pedigreeman_2: | Q: how do you feel about Alphabet soup as a sprint sire (abbondanza, our new recruit)? |
| Lauren Stich: | Alphabet Soup of course won the Classic and is by Cozzene. He's been a very versatile but underrated sire. His horses are much better on turf (no surprise because of Cozzene). They do have speed, but they're better going over one mile. |
| Deanmachine: | Q: Which European horses will move up if the Turf turns up yielding or soft on Saturday? |
| Lauren Stich: | There is one colt who stands out on a very soft or very yielding course -- Whipper. While a good, but not great runner in Europe over good to soft, he explodes on soft courses and moves up dramatically. |
| POINT_GIVEN: | Q: How will Mona Lisa adapt to the dirt? |
| Lauren Stich: | Her sire is Giant's Causeway, who has been nothing short of sensational with his first crop -- mostly offspring who are winning in Europe. They can certainly win on dirt (of course, he was second in his only start vs. Tiznow) but Mona Lisa meets a very salty group doing something she's never done before. I'd pass on her. |
| Sunline: | Q: You wrote a column highlighting Baletto about a month ago...do you still feel as strongly about her chances based on pedigree now that the field is out... |
| Lauren Stich: | I sure do. This is a very, very tough field of 2-y-o fillies, but Balletto remains one of my top picks of the day. I would have preferred a middle post rather than the rail, but Bailey knows what to do. She'll be a decent price because of Sweet Catomine and others, but I feel we simply haven't seen the best of her yet. She'll love two turns. |
| Twohitdead: | Q: The European shipper,Scandinavia, in the sprint has some AMAZING blood lines. By FuPeg out of the same mare as great 2002 filly composure. How do you like scandinavia in this spot? |
| Lauren Stich: | Actually, he's the "other" FuPeg in the field. If Roman Ruler runs like I think he will, they are all running for second. Scandinavia should take to dirt like his pop, is a late-developing colt who is improving and yes, he's a half-brother to Compsure. No telling how good he'll eventually be. I'm putting him underneath in all exotics. |
| Peteski: | Q: From a breeding point of view, how much value does Azeri stand to gain from a Classic win? |
| Lauren Stich: | First of all, it's a real longshot for that to happen. Her value is already determined -- the only thing that would happen is that she would go down as one of the greatest fillies or mares in history -- but her value is so high as it is. |
| CaptainKirk: | Q: Hi Lauren, I live in Virginia and I saw Kitten's Joy win the Va. Derby with an unbelievable turn of foot. Who do you think has a shot if any to beat this horse in the BC Turf? |
| Lauren Stich: | His Turf Classic was draw-dropping to be sure, but don't overlook Powerscourt and Magistretti who really didn't run his best race. He is certainly the one to beat, but he is not unbeatable and anything less than 6-5, I'd take a shot with Powerscourt. Would have loved Ouija Board in here, alas... |
| jimbo: | Q: Do you really think distance breeding is a relevant angle in the Juvenile races. Success Express, Yes It's True, and others who won this race had no distance breeding. |
| Lauren Stich: | Actually, most sprinter/milers can get 1 1/16 miles -- it's not really a distance race. Two year olds with sprint/miler pedigrees can get the Juvenile distance (unless it's 1 1/8 miles like it was at Arlington) but that doesn't mean they can stretch out and develop at 3 to win at 1 1/4 miles. |
| boboo7: | Q: What do you think of Strut The Stage's pedigree and chances at 1+1/2 miles? |
| Lauren Stich: | Strut the Stage has a magnificent pedigree -- Theatrical on top out of a Red Ransom mare -- this is the exact family of champion turfer Chief Bearhart. Of course, he's bred to get 1 1/2 miles, and he's one of the horses to use underneath Powerscourt, Kitten's Joy -- and believe it or not -- the underachiever, Mustanfar. |
| BC_daze: | Q: Afleet Alex, although having lost to Proud Accolade, is after all a 2-yr-old. He is working out like he has wings beneath his feet. Do you think he can get the distance? |
| Lauren Stich: | Afleet Alex has impressed from the start, and his Champagne was hardly a disgrace when he didn't get the greatest of trips. This is a hard-knocing colt who is certainly capable of getting 1 1/16 miles -- not sure though how much more. He's a definite contender off his excellent races and should be highly competitive here. |
| Kirisclown: | Q: Ms.Stich, what are your thoughts on the Distaff? Can Lukas win it with Stellar Jayne? |
| Lauren Stich: | Normally, I'd say flat out, NO -- but it is Lukas. Honestly, although I think this has now turned into a very wide-open event with Azeri out, I can't see Stellar Jayne winning this. |
| JFL3_2: | Q: Ms. Stich...Tell me about Roses In May...Can he handle 10 furlongs |
| Lauren Stich: | Both his pedigree and style of running say he can get 1 1/4 miles, but the pace is going to be very hot and something's got to give here. I think the Classic really sets up for a bona fide 1 1/4-mile horse -- Pleasantly Perfect or the two Dynaformers -- Dynever or Perfect Drift, who have disappointed so much in the past. |
| biggestal: | Q: Artie Schiller-Shouldn't he be running longer. He female family shouts long on the grass (blue hen Vagancy-Ferdinand, Prince True etc) yet his connections choose the Mile instead of the turf. what is your opinion, Lauren? Thank you Allan |
| cordoc: | Q: Ms. Stich, seems like a very ordinary group of Europeans. Any hidden talent there? |
| Lauren Stich: | There is a general consensus that because the top Euros are not here -- Bago, Rakti, etc., the European contingent is weak, but that is hardly the case. This is a very good group of Euros who should especially love the give in the turf since there's been so much rain in Texas. Don't overlook them this year... |
| MilwaukeeBruce: | Q: How does DANCE AWAY CAPOTE's chances look in the Juvenile Fillies....The horse looks real good to me especially at these odds |
| Lauren Stich: | As I mentioned before, I think this is a very competitive group of fillies and Dance Away Capote fits right in there with them. She's by BC Juvenile winner Capote (sire of BC winenr Boston Harbor), and her dam is a half-sister to Skip Away. I still think Balletto is the winenr, and anybody in here can run second. |
| kycat05: | Q: Are you ready for the performance we will witness by Ouija Board? |
| Lauren Stich: | This is some outstanding filly, and I really wished she would have gone in the Turf -- tougher of course, but she would have fared well vs. Kitten's Joy and Powerscourt, especially at 1 1/2 miles. Of course, she will be an extremely short price, but don't overlook Light Jig and especially Wonder Again, who can beat any filly or mare at this distance on her best day. This is a very, very good mare. And her price will be nice. |
| pedigreeman_2: | Q: It seems Dosage & Center of distribution are overlooked now. Do they still have value? |
| Lauren Stich: | I've always stated that I believe in pedigree, not Dosage, at least in its current form. And since most of the BC horses have raced at the distance or surface before, past performances weight more heavily. Pedigrees play the most important role in the 2-y-o races, the turf races and the Classic -- the distance question. |
| justabob: | Q: Pleasantly Perfect looks and is training awesome. He'll be tough to beat on a dry track but would his chances be seriously compromised if we have a sticky or muddy track? |
| Lauren Stich: | Being by Pleasant Colony, I don't think he'd be greatly affected by an off-track. The Horse of the Year is up for grabs and their are five horses who could conceivably be HOTY if they win the Classic -- Pleasantly Perfect, Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Birdstone or Azeri. If they all fail to win, and Kitten's Joy wins the Turf, he's got a big shot, and if they all lose, it's the ghost of Smarty Jones who will win the prize. |
| BC_daze: | Q: There has to be a question asked about Funny Cide! IS IT POSSIBLE FOR HIM TO CAPTURE THE CLASSIC? |
| Lauren Stich: | One can admire Funny Cide and it's great to have the gelding around, but I've always thought he was a notch below the very best. He'll be competitive, but I don't think he can beat a Pleasantly Perfect at this distance. |
| saratoga_pesty: | Q: Lauren, it seems to me that most are discounting Runway Model's win in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. Is that the right call or do you this filly will show up on Satruday? |
| Lauren Stich: | She's run more times than anyone in here, and of course she belongs in here off a very good race in the Alcibiades. But then, what do you make of Culinary, who beat Runway Model in only her second start after Runway had raced 6 times? To me, she's one of a handful running for second behind --- Balletto. |
| Mr__R: | Q: Will the heat in Texas have any effect on horses based in Northeast like in New York |
| Lauren Stich: | I guess Funny Cide will be scratched if it's too humid....seriously, the heat and/or humidity affects fillies much more than colts, and of course, it could greatly affect the Euros who were starting their winter coats already. |
| pedigreeman: | Q: what are your feelings about 2 well bred horses not mentioned; Nebraska Tornado & Yesterday? |
| Lauren Stich: | The best thing about Nebraska tornado is her genius trainer, Andre Fabre. While bred to handle dirt (Storm Cat), I'd like her much more in the Mile, but Fabre has a very live longshot in there, Diamond Green. I picked Yesterday to win this race last year at 14-1 and she was third. Only has two races this year, but she wouldn't be coming over here for O'Brien unless he thought he had a real chance. And of course, the longer the distance, the betetr for any Sadler's Wells runner. She's a must-use in exotics. |
| MARCO: | Q: With the disapointing loss to pico central in his return, speightstown appears vulnerable.Can midas eyes or kela make the turn back to 6 furlongs and win this? |
| Lauren Stich: | My top 3 selections in the Sprint (which I think is always the toughest race to handicap) are Midas Eyes, Kela and Cuvee. If Speightstown, Midas Eyes or Kela wins -- they will be champion sprinter, but if all lose, the prize goes to Pico Central. |
| info: | Q: Do you think Film Maker in the F&M Turf has a chance as a top 3 finisher? |
| Lauren Stich: | She's a Dynaformer bred for the distance, and she's a nice filly, but I can only see her getting a minor award in here. |
| gmoney: | Q: Can Society Selection give the Giant Killer his first BC victory? |
| Lauren Stich: | Absolutely. If Island Fashion runs to her best races, she's the filly to beat, but Society Selection is the best runner by Coronado's Quest (who was sent packing to Japan like his sire, Forty Niner). As usual, this Distaff is a race within a race for champion 3-y-o filly, between Society Selection and Ashado. I think Society Selection should be first or second. |
| pelican: | Q: give me 4 throwouts for the classic |
| Lauren Stich: | Hate to say it, but Azeri, Bowmand's Band, Fantasticat and Freefourunternet. |
| gamblinman: | Q: What do you think of Moscow Burning's chances in F&M turf,she looks to be the only confirmed front runner in the race? |
| Lauren Stich: | Nobody's going to run away with this race. She's a very consistent mare, but there are too many others I like ahead of her. She could be used underneath in tris and supers, but not on top. |
| JOHNNY_N: | Q: Lauren,if you had to make one $100 bet,who would it be? |
| Lauren Stich: | Well, I guess you know it would be Balletto. |
| mingun: | Q: your opinion on blackdoun in the mile, some people r saying he beat up a bad lot in del mar!!and what makes artie schiller any better ??? just because kittens joy beat him?? |
| Lauren Stich: | Blackdoun was visually impressive in all of his three stakes wins at Del Mar. He was not a major winenr in Europe, but it could be that Lasix has worked its miracle on him, like so many other Euros who got new life because of permissive medication here. I do, however, think he did beat up on average turfers in Calif, and Artie has raced against this year's best in Kitten's Joy -- that's a big deal. |
| Deanmachine: | Q: Do you think Sense of Style is overarted and a major play against on Saturday? |
| Lauren Stich: | If you once liked Sense of Style, you have to toss her non-effort in the Alcibiades. It is disconcerting that even when clear, she had nothing. But my feeling is that she's much better than that, and look at the kind of year Biancone is having when the big money is on the line. She'll be in my exacts and tris, but not on top. |
| Lasix: | Q: Will Smarty Jones be a prolific sire + will he be horse of the year? I think he should be HOY. |
| Lauren Stich: | First answer to your 2-part query: I'd rather breed to his sire Elusive Quality right now than SJ. Part 2: No, I do not believe he deserves HOY off his two major victories. That should only happen if the 6 horses I mentioned earlier -- the 5 in the classic and Kitten's Joy in the Turf -- lose. Then Smarty could get it by default, like Charismatic did in 1999. Let's hope that doesn't happen. |
| Taxman: | Q: Lauren, what do you think of Sun King's chances both Saturday and for 2005 Derby? |
| Lauren Stich: | Actually, I like Sun King a lot. Charismatic hasn't set the world on fire as a sire (he too was sent off to Japan before any of his runners got to the races), but this colt showed uncharacteristic speed for a Charismatic (notoriously late bloomers). But, his dam's side is spectacular, and there is a ton of upside to this colt. And of course, he's in Zito's magical hands. This is a colt with a future no matetr what happens in the Juvenile. |
| Kmslr: | Q: Why has Dynaver never tried the grass ? He's looks like a grass natural. |
| slew1977: | Q: In your opinion who is of all the favorites false? |
| Lauren Stich: | Well, all the pre-race favorites seem to deserve their ranking, but I think Cajun Beat will be overbet off his winning race last year. He's had a very light campaign and I think the Sprint is wide-open -- if Midas Eyes were in a betetr spot, I'd be more confident, so Kela is looking betetr and better. |
| Lauren Stich: | Wish I could answer all your questions, thanks for coming tonight. Good luck to everyone in the BC. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | ADVERTISEMENT: Bet on the Breeders' Cup at Youbet.com! Youbet.com - The Best of All! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Does your handicapping need help? Be sure to check out Brad Free's book, Handicapping 101. It's on sale online in the DRF Press bookstore. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us tomorrow night from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with Steven Crist. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to check back at DRF.com next week when Lauren Stich's new book, Pedigree Handicapping, goes on sale! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
