THURSDAY, OCT. 28, 2004
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight, we'll start with a question from TrooperSeven... |
| TrooperSeven: | Q: What's your take on the Sprint? It seems to me it's come up very light with only 4 horses (Cajun Beat, Kela, Our New Recruit and Pt's Grey Eagle) ever having won a G1 at 6F (and each only once). All 4 of them are very suspect in my mind this year. |
| Steven Crist: | I don't think your criteria are meaningful because there aren't many G1 sprints. |
| Steven Crist: | It's a good field with everyone you would want to see with the notable exception of Pico Central. |
| Steven Crist: | I'm against Speightstown as the favorite because he hasn't faced G1 pace pressure successfully and there's a lot of heat in this race. |
| Steven Crist: | I think Midas Eyes can work out a good stalking trip from the outside post and I give Kela, Clock Stopper and Champali good shots to close well. |
| Dr__Fager: | Q: Are you dismissing Abbondanza? His recent races are very good. |
| Steven Crist: | He has little or no chance. He comes off a losse win against nothing on a lightning track. |
| jgamble: | Q: What do you think of Sun King's chances in the Juv |
| Steven Crist: | He's got a legit shot. He was ridden too hard early in the Chmpagne, gets a big rider switch and has lots of room to improve. |
| ceejay: | Q: Steve, Do any of the head-to-head matchups intrest you from a wagering standpoint? |
| Steven Crist: | I think they're kind of weak selections this year. I wish they were more off the wall, like Azeri vs. Freefourinternet. I'd take Freefourinternet. |
| FiredUp: | Q: I like a longshot in the BC mile by the name of Diamond Green. What do you think his chances are? |
| Steven Crist: | I think he and Antonius Pius, his shadow in Europe this year, both should be used underneath. They fit well here but neither likes to win. |
| spinnin: | Q: Hi Steve I like Artie Schiller in the turf mile. What do you think of his rivals Blackdoun and Special Ring? |
| Steven Crist: | Artie has a real turn of foot and he could be a superior miler. I don't like either of Canani's horses. Special Ring needs to be loose on the lead, which he won't be with the Canadian speeds in here, and Blackdoun was beating up on bad California 3-year-olds in slow races. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, any thoughts on Consolidator? How do you rate his chances in the Juvenile? |
| Steven Crist: | If he's 8-1/10-1 I could see using him defensively. He's got the best two-turn race coming in, though the Champagne around one-turn came up a faster number. |
| OneTurnMile: | Q: It seems to me that Ghtzosapper hasn't beaten a true G1 horse at a distance. I know his figs are huge, but i see him as vunerable. Your thoughts ? |
| Steven Crist: | He may well be the fastest horse in the race but I have grave misgivings about him at a mile and a quarter. he was life and death at a mile and an eighth to beat St. Liam, who hadn't been out since March. |
| Ownerthat_sbroke: | Q: Hi Steve! I appreciate your time. Any thoughts on Perfect Drift? Always a bride's maid and never a bride. Your thoughts, if you please. Winless tnis year, but does it really matter, considering? |
| Steven Crist: | When you lose that often, especially in spots where you look like a cinch (Hawthorne Gold Cup) or where they're stopping in front of you (Whitney), I think there's a legitimate character-flaw issue. But he's a great underneath horse at a mile and a quarter. |
| Mr_C: | Q: If we assume Ouija Board doesn't fire (a large assumption, but it will be hot and humid), can Megahertz overcome the layoff to win over the others? |
| Steven Crist: | Frankel sounds like he's rushing her into the race, and I'm not sure she can finish in front of Wonder Again anyway for second. But Ouija Board is supposed to win for fun. |
| McGrail_At_The_Rail: | Q: Steven...What's your best longshot pick and your thoughts the most playable race for value |
| Steven Crist: | In the Breeders' Cup there are live longshots all over the place. A couple I'll mention are Mona Lisa and Film Maker. As for value, I think the Mile is the best race to get value if you have an opinion because everybody's guessing., |
| lex95: | Q: Steve, I thought the Alcibiades was a strong field. Do you think the race rated fast? |
| Steven Crist: | I'm always suspicious when four of them hit the wire together, there's been trouble, and the race still comes up fast. Are they all really that good? My other take is that the race fell apart late and came home slowly, so the deep closers may have benefitted. |
| zd: | Q: Given that Azeri's 2 poor races were both at Belmont and the loss at 10 furlongs was because of a pace duel, so suggesting that you throw those out, then how does she stack up in the classic? |
| Steven Crist: | She still stacks up as having very little chance. She's not fast enough and she doesn't want a mile and a quarter. |
| DELMAR_DENNIS: | Q: Other than Kitten's Joy, what other possible singles would you use in the Pick 6 ? |
| Steven Crist: | I think Ouija Board is a stronger single than Kitten's Joy. |
| Northeastern: | Q: Island Fashion's comeback race was not visually impressive or impressive from a figures standpoint but it was her first race back in a while. If she runs back to those races from earlier this year she should crush this field aside from maybe society selection? |
| Steven Crist: | I'm picking Island Fashion and I thought her comeback was sneaky-good. It was her first start since June off a trip to Japan and it was a paceless race. her best races dominate these. |
| Arazi: | Q: I watched Mona Lisa's last race in a group 1 and she was so unlucky. What do you think of her chances at 15-1? |
| Steven Crist: | She got sawed off in that race and the rider claimed it cost her six lengths. She still got a 108 Timeform Rating, which translates to a 94-95 Beyer, which would actually be the "top fig" in this field. |
| punter: | Q: Steve, I keep trying to make a case for Newfoundland...am I just wasting my time? |
| Steven Crist: | I think you're wasting your time. |
| Harryhorse: | Q: What kind of shot do you give Birdstone???? |
| Steven Crist: | Newfoundland's two good races fell apart -- the Suburban and the JCGC. I don;t think he's as good as the real G! horses in here. |
| Steven Crist: | I give Birdstone a small shot because of the distance. He's a true mile and a quarter horse, whereas Azeri, Ghostzapper and Roses in May may not be. I've been a Birdstone fan since his debut so maybe I'm reaching, but I think he's underrated and underappreciated. |
| fillway: | Q: how bout freeforinternet can he hit the board |
| Steven Crist: | I doubt it. That Hawthorne race was really slow. |
| shoreracer: | Q: Steve, does Dance Away Capote have a shot in the Juvenile Fil. ? |
| Steven Crist: | She has a shot but I'm not as enamored with her as Mr. Beyer is. She had a wide trip but the race set up well for her. Also, it bothers me that this will be her third two-turn race in five weeks. That's a lot for a 2-year-old filly. |
| Tonz: | Q: How realistic do you think Funny Cide's chances are in the Classic? |
| Steven Crist: | I've gotten to like and respect him and he's a mile and a quarter horse but I think a minor award may be his ceiling here. |
| ATCornpone: | Q: Do you think Personal Rush has a chance to win the Classic, especially after his 9 length victory? |
| Steven Crist: | No chance. Not a very good horse and training bizarrely. |
| TrooperSeven: | Q: What's your take on Silver Tree? If Nothing to Lose is one of the favorites, doesn't Silver Tree deserve a bit of respect in what appears to be the toughest race to handicap on the card? |
| Steven Crist: | Silver Tree and NTL took turns beating each other all summer. The question is whether NTL made a big improvement last time in the Shadwell, which the numbers suggest he did. But Silver Tree could get lost in the shuffle and be a very juicy price. I'm not going to argue against any plausible 25-1 shot in the Mile. |
| suffolk: | Q: Nebraska Tornado has run against some top grass horses and his timeform ratings translate to Beyers well above these rest. Can he make the transition to dirt? |
| Steven Crist: | He's a she. And she's by Storm Cat but has no dirt on the other side of her pedigree. If she were in top form I think she'd be in the Mile. She hasn't been anything like the worldbeater she was last year as a 4-year-old. |
| ml_nj: | Q: What is your most interesting Formulator Four discovery? |
| Steven Crist: | I love playing with Formulator 4. I don;t think Hollywood Story has a chance but I did find that John Shirreffs is 4-for-9 going turf to dirt off 90+ day layoffs. You can find a stat to justify almost anything you want to. |
| fish: | Q: What do you think of Mr. O'Brien in the Mile? Obviously, his connections think he's got a shot or they would not have supplemented. Can he repeat the Kelso effot? |
| Steven Crist: | I don't think a repeat of the Kelso would get the money. He had a perfect trip against a mediocre field. Millenium Dragon and Gulch Approval are not exactly Whipper and Six Perfections. |
| Quanross: | Q: Does Culinary measure up in juv. fillies? |
| Steven Crist: | She's very interesting and playable at 10-1 -- 2-for-2 both at a mile and she whipped the eventual Alcibiades winner. I think they may all be running for second behind Sweet catomine though. |
| EASY_GOER: | Q: Is there enough pace in the Distaff to give Storm Flag Flying a chance? |
| Steven Crist: | I think she'll deliver her best possible race in here because I think she's better at two turns than one and I like the switch to Bailey for her. |
| Gio: | Q: Mr.Crist, how do you feel about Six perfection repeating? |
| Steven Crist: | She can win again. There's some question about whether she is as sharp this year as last, but they may have been prepping and pointing her for this all year long. |
| rock_stephen: | Q: I lost connection so I will ask mine again. has Dynever improved enough this year to be closer when he makes his run and maybe win it this time ? |
| Steven Crist: | There's been no indication that he has improved this year but he's fresh and you know he'll get the distance. |
| bigtuna: | Q: It looks like races run in the last few days at Lone Star have favored horses on or near the lead. Will the track bias change on Breeders Cup day and do you think that a speed bias exists? |
| Steven Crist: | I've found it's a waste of time to study the track in the day or two before the BC because you always get a brand new track come Saturday morning. |
| boboo: | Q: What do you think of Singletary in the mile. He was wide in last and runs best 2nd off a layoff? |
| Steven Crist: | He's solid and consistent but his only stakes wins are the La Jolla and the San Francisco Mile and he'll have to take his game up a notch to beat these. |
| Dayjur: | Q: If the turf is firm Saturday, does Request For Parole have a shot to hit the board at a big mutual? Usually runs his race every time, but will his best be good enough? |
| Steven Crist: | His very best race might get him fourth place behind some combination of Kitten's Joy, Magistretti and Powerscourt. |
| bboy: | Q: Is 12 hole disadvantage for Pleasantly Perfect in Classic? |
| Steven Crist: | I don't think so. He's going to spend the first mile just getting position outside horses to make his winning run. |
| comptonracing_2: | Q: Just wondering if you could explain how Azeri got a 107 beyer on 10th when the very day before Consolidator got a 92 which had he been going a sixteenth farther he probably would have went in the same time same track on back to back days? |
| Steven Crist: | The whole premise of speed figures is that the speed of the track can change from day to day. And it does. |
| Gio: | Q: Mr.Crist, whats your $100 straight exa for the Cup? |
| Steven Crist: | Ouija Board-Wonder Again. |
| Quanross: | Q: Can Bianconne get the job done with SOS? |
| Steven Crist: | You have to give her another chance. When she was ready to pounce in the Alcibiades she was totally boxed in and had nowehere to go. Maybe she's not a distance horse but her previous races were dominant and visually impressive. |
| woobie: | Q: I FEEL FILM MAKER IS SITTING ON A BIG RACE. HOW DO YOU FEEL? |
| Steven Crist: | I think she is too. She got stuck behind very, very slow paces in her last two. I don;t know if she can beat the top ones but she could be 3rd or 4th at 20-1 or better. |
| chrystal: | Q: What's your best cold pick 3 on the day? |
| Steven Crist: | No, but there are three very narrowable races that are run back-to-back in the F&M Turf, Juvenile and Turf. I don;t think you have to go very deep in those. |
| Mazel_Trick: | Q: My dad gave me 100 dollars to bet on the breeders cup. I am going to use it and bet a 100 dollar win on Powerscourt in the turf. Have I lost my mind? |
| Steven Crist: | No, he's plausible, but betting $100 on a 7-2 shot who might be second or third best doesn't satrike me as the best use of $100. |
| bboy: | Q: Is Sweet Catamine as good asshe looked in Oak Leaf? |
| Steven Crist: | I wasn't that impressed with her on paper but when I finally watched the Oak Leaf I became a fan. She looks to me like a very serious racehorse. |
| Spit_Barn: | Q: What kind of spread will you be eating on BC Day? Have you put that plan into force?? |
| Steven Crist: | I'm sure that I'll be eating some crow. This is hard day not to be very, very wrong at least once or twice. |
| beckster: | Q: do you think roses in may will get the classic distance?his sire seem to prefer 1mile@eigth. |
| Steven Crist: | I think he's questionable, and so does the trainer. If Perfect Drift had any will to win, he would have nailed him in the Whitney. |
| VA-BT: | Q: what kind of chance do you give Scandinavia against this tough field... do you think he could get a piece on the bottom end, or does Wilko have a better chance to hit the board |
| Steven Crist: | Very little. I think you look at Euros in the Juvenile when there's a really superior one (Arazi, Johannesburg) and/or when the stateside group is weak, as it was in those two horses' years. I think this is a better-than-average group in the Juvenile so I'm not going to try to get cute with either Euro. |
| jimbo: | Q: Why do you think Frankel's horses don't run well in the BC. Many other "move up" trainers have similar problems. |
| Steven Crist: | I think the 2-for-57 stat on Frankel is misleading in a couple of respects. In the early years, he was running a lot of 50-1 shots and Euros who didn't fit. Then he learned the hard way not to use his horses up in the fall chasing every big prep. I confidently predict he'll win a lot more than 2 of his next 57. Starting with Midas Eyes. |
| caymans100: | Q: I know you;ll be playing the Pick six, but what about the two pic 4's and who do you like? |
| Steven Crist: | I'll be playing the Pick 4's (first four and last four) as well as the Pick Six. I think this year's races lend themselves to multi-race bets. Races like the Juvenile and Turf are not that compelling as betting races and you don't have to use a lot of horses to get through them and you can try to get bombs home elsewhere. |
| hcabdlog: | Q: Is Roman Ruler the most vunerable favorite Sat? |
| Steven Crist: | I think he's vulnerable off his Norfolk. I know it was a paid workout but he was rank and he came home very, very slowly. I'll take my chances against him with the three coming out of the Champagne. |
| BreedersCupFan: | Q: What about Fantasticat? This horse will win it for Barnett. |
| Steven Crist: | Good luck to you and Barnett. I can't see him. |
| chrystal: | Q: Who are you tossing in the classic? |
| Steven Crist: | I'm tossing azeri, Fantasticat, Freefourinternet, Newfoundland and Personal Rush. |
| horseswit: | Q: what about runaway model ? |
| Steven Crist: | I don;t think she has as much room for improvement as the others. The Alcibiades fell into her lap and she's already run eight times. |
| bighoss: | Q: since the curse of the bambino has been lifted, which trainer or jockey's curse will be lifted saturday |
| Steven Crist: | If you believe horse races are won and lost by curses, I have a card game you're welcome to play in. |
| fu_peg: | Q: Kela lookslike a 7F horse. Does he have a chance |
| Steven Crist: | I'm a sucker for horses like that. Swept Overboard and Aldebaran took my monet six furlongs. But Kela has won at 6f and was in front after 6f the last time he won at 7f. |
| cigar95: | Q: Why is no one giving Stellar Jayne any credit? She has run even with Ashado at the distance, and Society Selection hasn't even won at 9f. Your thoughts on Stellar Jayne? |
| Steven Crist: | She's tempting because she'l be at least twice the price of Ashado and there's not much to choose between them. The outside draw could hurt her and Lukas was very displeased about getting that post. |
| Quanross: | Q: How do you feel about using Gold Storm in excotics? |
| Steven Crist: | Not optimistic. He's pure one-way speed and there's a lot of that in this field. I can't see him winning the battle and hanging around for the war. |
| Butch: | Q: Steve, I haven't heard much talk about Light Jig in the F&M Turf, yet her last at Del Mar looked terrific. Do you give Light Jig any shot to beat Ouija Board?? |
| Steven Crist: | No. She was a cinch in the Yellow Ribbon against a terrible field but she doesn't have a race in the same universe as Ouija Board. I think she's a play against as the 3-1 second choice on the line. |
| NoChalk4ME: | Q: I read that Ms Stich LOVES Balleto, what do you think of him? |
| Steven Crist: | Him is a her. Balletto I think is a serious underlay in this race. That was a really weak Frizette field she beat, she comes hoim in mediocre time, and I don't see a lot of upside with her. |
| Steven Crist: | Thank you all for coming and be sure to check back in the Breeders' Cup Diary for my tortured horse-by-horse analysis of all eight races over the next three days. Good luck to all! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | NEW RELEASE: The Home Run Horse By Glenye Cain is on sale now in the DRF Press online bookstore. Look under "What's New @ DRF.com" on the DRF home page for details. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | HANDICAPPING 101: Does your handicapping need help? Be sure to check out Brad Free's book, Handicapping 101. It's on sale online in the DRF Press bookstore. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | GREAT HOLIDAY GIFT IDEA: Horseplayers Expo DVD Set! Spend that money you're going to make Saturday on the horseplayers on your holiday shopping list. Look under What's New on the DRF.com home page for details. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | READ WHO STEVEN CRIST LIKES IN THE BREEDERS' CUP: Go to the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section each day leading up to the Cup for a new installment of Crist's Breeders' Cup Diary - www.DRF.com/bc |
| DRF_WebGrp: | BREEDERS' CUP PAST PERFORMANCES: Breeders' Cup Day full card past performances are on sale now! Check the DRF.com home page. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
